Debris flow disaster risk analysis and modeling via numerical simulation and land use assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Wang ◽  
Yan Yu ◽  
Qinghua Gong ◽  
Shaoxiong Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis ◽  
Debris Flow Disaster

scholarly journals Disaster Risk Analysis Part 2: The Systemic Underestimation of Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaida A. Mamuji ◽  
David Etkin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Potential Contribution ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis

Abstract How risk is defined, the nature of methodologies used to assess risk, and the degree to which rare events should be included in a disaster risk analysis, are important considerations when developing policies, programs and priorities to manage risk. Each of these factors can significantly affect risk estimation. In Part 1 of this paper [Etkin, D. A., A. A. Mamuji, and L. Clarke. 2018. “Disaster Risk Analysis Part 1: The Importance of Including Rare Events.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.] we concluded that excluding rare events has the potential to seriously underestimate the cumulative risk from all possible events,For example, of the 100 most expensive weather disasters in the US, the single most expensive event accounts for 16% of total economic impacts. Similarly, the worst explosion disaster accounts for 17% of the fatalities of the total 100 worst events. though including them can be very challenging both from a methodological and data availability perspective. Underestimating risk can result in flawed disaster risk reduction policies, resulting in insufficient attention being devoted to mitigation and/or prevention. In Part 2, we survey various governmental emergency management policies and methodologies in order to evaluate varying equations used to define risk, and to assess potential biases within disaster risk analyses that do comparative risk ranking. We find (1) that the equations used to define risk used by emergency management organizations are frequently less robust than they should or are able to be, and (2) that methodologies used to assess risk are often inadequate to properly account for the potential contribution of rare events. We conclude that there is a systemic bias within many emergency management organizations that results in underestimation of risk.

Requirements and Functional Analysis of a Multi-Hazard Disaster-Risk Analysis System

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 413-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.-M. Chen ◽  
K. S. Fan ◽  
L.-C. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Functional Analysis ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis ◽  
Analysis System

scholarly journals Run-out Effects of Debris Flows Based on Numerical Simulation

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 848-858
Author(s):  
Jun Wang ◽  
Yan Yu ◽  
Xinfeng Wei ◽  
Qinghua Gong ◽  
Haixian Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Spatial Risk ◽  
Simulation Results

Debris flows are a common natural disaster in mountainous areas and often cause severe casualties and property loss. Debris-flow run-out effects analysis can provide an idea of the spatial risks posed to the downstream area of a debris flow, which is extremely important for local populations’ lives, disaster mitigation and planning the layout of economic construction. The objective of this study is to develop a new method to quantify debris flow run-out effects by combining debris flow simulation results and data for different types of land use within the inundated area. After a three-dimensional numerical simulation platform was established, the numerical simulation method was applied as a modeling tool to simulate the inundated areas and final buried depths under rainfalls with different return periods. The simulated result for flow depth under a 100-year return period rainfall event was validated based on field measurements. Finally, the debris-flow run-out effects under different return periods were analyzed by combining the simulation results and land use data. The proposed method can enhance the accuracy of debris-flow spatial risk assessment and has great value for application.

scholarly journals Disaster Risk Analysis of Domestic Public Institutions 2 - Focusing on Analysis of Risk Factors -

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 356-364
Author(s):  
Gwang-Duck Seo ◽  
Dong-Heon Kim ◽  
Yun-Cheul Choi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis

Risk Assessment Model to Natural Disaster in County Unit Based on Information Diffusion Technology

2011 ◽  
Vol 225-226 ◽  
pp. 839-842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Hao ◽  
Xiao Yu Zhang ◽  
Zhi Liang Shu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis ◽  
County Unit

Accurate assessment to disaster risk is one of the keys to reducing disaster losses. However, due to the fact that the disaster situation data series in county unit are always relatively short, available data are often not sufficient for disaster risk analysis. In this paper, a risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory was applied to create a new disaster risk analysis model (CURAM), and the risk of disaster can be evaluated on higher spatial resolution of county unit. Visual Basic and Map Objects were used to establish CURAM applying object oriented technique and component technique. CURAM provided risk evaluate function to natural disaster in county unit, and thematic map making and output, etc. The risk assessment results calculated by CURAM indicated that information diffusion technology was highly capable of extracting useful information and therefore improved system recognition accuracy.

Multi-scale coupling and application of natural disaster risk analysis

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaolong Liu ◽  
Zhenlou Chen ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Mingwu Ye ◽  
Shiyuan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Disaster Risk

scholarly journals Disaster risk analysis of Mount Bromo eruption after the 2015 eruption in Sukapura District

2018 ◽  
Vol 229 ◽  
pp. 01015
Author(s):  
Turniningtyas Ayu Rachmawati ◽  
Dwi Rahmawati ◽  
Arief Rachmansyah
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Community Capacity ◽  
Risk Calculation ◽  
Disaster Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Areas

Mount Bromo is one of the most active volcanoes in East Java with a 4-5 year interval of the eruption. Its last eruption was in 2015 and is expected to erupt in 2020. The mountain is characterized as having the phreatic type of eruption, which can take months, and made Sukapura district the most seriously affected. Sukapura District is inhabited by Tengger people who strongly uphold their customs. The strong spiritual relationship between Tengger people and Mount Bromo affects the efforts to reduce the disaster risk. In anticipation of the coming eruption in 2020, a disaster risk calculation is required as the basis for disaster risk reduction. This paper examines the risks of Mount Bromo eruption disaster from the aspects of its hazards, vulnerability and community capacity. The results of risk calculation indicate that the vulnerability and capacity are the most influential aspects to the magnitude of the risks suffered by the community. The high-risk areas to prioritize are Ngadisari, Sariwani, Sapikerep, Wonokerto, Ngadirejo, and part of Jetak Village. Moderate risks include part of Kedasih village, part of Pakel Village, part of Ngadas Village, part of Jetak Village and part of Wonokerto Village. The low-risk areas include part of Ngepung Village, Sukapura Village, part of Ngadas Village and part of Wonotoro Village.

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