EVALUATION OF SURVIVABILITY OF A SHIP AFTER DAMAGE WITH APPLICATION OF A RISK CALCULATION METHOD

This paper contains calculations of risk for a selected damage case scenario. The calculations took place with use of a risk model designed for evaluating the safety of ships and were compared with the available and published industry standard (as included in SOLAS 2009) as well. The comparison of results is presented in the form of a discussion and concludes that exact risk levels can be obtained at any stage of the vessel's life. The currently valid method as included in SOLAS 2009 regulation provides limited information about the actual survivability of a vessel in emergency conditions. It is hence very difficult to compare the current probabilistic model with risk based survivability calculations to evaluate the actual safety provided by an investigated vessel should it subsequently be severely damaged.

EP.FRI.650 Are we calculating and documenting the NELA Score pre-operatively?

Aim Emergency laparotomy is a common procedure associated with high risk of mortality and morbidity. NELA risk score calculation for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy improves the quality of patient care and compares the organisation of patient care provided to the outcomes following surgery. The aim of this study was to determine if NELA score was calculated and documented pre-laparotomy. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted for patients who had emergency laparotomy at a primary care hospital in England. This study included reviewing the case notes and consent forms to assess if NELA risk score was calculated. Following further education of the surgical team, the audit loop was closed.The primary outcome was to identify not only calculation but also that the score was documented. Results Measures taken to enhance NELA risk calculation included theatre co-ordinator asking for NELA risk score while booking for laparotomy and documentation on the booking form and posters on surgical ward. Consequently, 40% notes included Scoring which improved to 70% after making the above changes. Conclusion The NELA risk score should be calculated for all patients undergoing emergency laparotomy as it estimates an individual’s risk of death within 30 days of surgery. It also standardises the risk calculation among all laparotomy patients and aids in clinical decision making, therefore is vital to be calculated in pre-operative phase. To ensure it is correctly calculated at all times, regular teaching and updates of NELA score is recommended.

Relevant Aspects for Sustainable Open Source Pandemic Apps and Platform Deployment with Focus on Community Building

The global COVID-19 pandemic revealed the necessity for mobile and web-based solutions for a variety of medical processes, e.g., individual risk calculation, communication of health information and contact tracing. Many such solutions are provided in form of open source software. However, there are major obstacles to the sustainable long-term continuation of such projects. As the topic of sustainability strategies is complex, a classification would be useful to help new projects to identify relevant sustainability factors. Based on a literature review a classification for long-term success of open source software was created. This paper presents a classification focusing on five unique categories: (1) structural decision, (2) revenue generation, (3) user focus, (4) openness and (5) community building. It was developed within the NUM-COMPASS project, focusing content-wise on pandemic apps and structure-wise on open-source provision. We provide some insights into the community building dimension by discussing factors that go into building sustainable communities.

Model for Risk Calculation and Reliability Comparison of Level Crossings

There is not a single country in the world that is so rich that it can remove all level crossings or provide their denivelation in order to absolutely avoid the possibility of accidents at the intersections of railways and road traffic. In the Republic of Serbia alone, the largest number of accidents occur at passive crossings, which make up three-quarters of the total number of crossings. Therefore, it is necessary to constantly find solutions to the problem of priorities when choosing level crossings where it is necessary to raise the level of security, primarily by analyzing the risk and reliability at all level crossings. This paper presents a model that enables this. The calculation of the maximal risk of a level crossing is achieved under the conditions of generating the maximum entropy in the virtual operating mode. The basis of the model is a heterogeneous queuing system. Maximum entropy is based on the mandatory application of an exponential distribution. The system is Markovian and is solved by a standard analytical concept. The basic input parameters for the calculation of the maximal risk are the geometric characteristics of the level crossing and the intensities and structure of the flows of road and railway vehicles. The real risk is based on statistical records of accidents and flow intensities. The exact reliability of the level crossing is calculated from the ratio of real and maximal risk, which enables their further comparison in order to raise the level of safety, and that is the basic idea of this paper.

Social determinants of health in the Big Data mode of population health risk calculation

Amidst the climate of crisis surrounding the rise in opioid-related overdose in the USA, early in 2019, Google and Deloitte launched ‘Opioid360’. Here came a platform combining browser histories, credit, insurance, social media, and traditional survey data to sell the service of risk calculation in population health. Opioid360's approach to automating risk calculation not only promised to identify persons ‘at risk’ of opioid dependence, but also paved the way for broader applications anticipating common chronic diseases and coordinating logistical operations involved in pandemic response. Beginning with this experimental platform, this paper develops an analysis of the Big Data mode of risk calculation - an epistemological and political shift that involves technology companies, investors, insurers, governments, and public health institutions. The analysis focuses on the re-emergence of ‘social determinants of health’ (SDOH) in the rhetoric accompanying novel analytic platforms that estimate, calculate, and compute individual health risks. While the treatment of SDOH has always been a site of political contestation within the discipline of public health, powerful interests are crystallising around the concept and instrumentalising it in platforms that sell algorithmic prediction. Silicon Valley's breed of asset-oriented technoscience appears not only to be amplifying the behaviouralist elements of public health. Among the stakes of the Big Data mode is the paradoxical retreat from changing social conditions that contribute to the prevalence of health and illness in populations; and instead, the promotion of an apparatus for pricing and exchanging individual risk or excluding from services those who bear risk most acutely.

The Evolution of Risk Assessment in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a chronic debilitating disease that carries an unacceptably high morbidity and mortality rate despite improved survival with modern therapies. The combination of several modifiable and nonmodifiable variables yields a robust risk assessment across various available clinical calculators. The role of risk calculation is integral to managing PAH and aids in the timely referral to expert centers and potentially lung transplantation. Studies are ongoing to determine the role of risk calculators in the framework of clinical trials and to elucidate novel markers of high risk in PAH.