Application of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making in Land Evaluation of Agricultural Land Use

Abstract. Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes in food demand were projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with increase in food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

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Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Land Evaluation of Potential Agricultural Land Use Types in a Hilly Area of Central Vietnam

Land ◽

10.3390/land8060090 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 90 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Ronja Herzberg ◽

Tung Gia Pham ◽

Martin Kappas ◽

Daniel Wyss ◽

Chau Thi Minh Tran

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Decision Analysis ◽

Local Knowledge ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Research Area ◽

Land Evaluation ◽

Agricultural Land Use ◽

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽

Land Use Types ◽

Central Vietnam

Land evaluation is a process that is aimed at the sustainable development of agricultural production in rural areas, especially in developing countries. Therefore, land evaluation involves many aspects of natural conditions, economic, and social issues. This research was conducted in a hilly region of Central Vietnam to assess the land suitability of potential agricultural land use types that are based on scientific and local knowledge. In the frame of this research, Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA); Analytical Hierarchy Analysis (AHP); Geographic Information System (GIS); and, scoring based scientific literature and local knowledge were applied for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for land use evaluation. The results of the PRA survey reveal that five plants offer great agricultural potential in the research area, namely rice, cassava, acacia, banana, and rubber. The land suitability of each plant type varies, depending on physical conditions as well as economic and social aspects. Acacia and cassava represent the most suitable plant types in the research area. Recommendations regarding agricultural land use planning in the A Luoi district are brought forward based on the land evaluation results. The combination of scientific and local knowledge in land assessment based on GIS technology, AHP, and PRA methods is a promising approach for land evaluation.

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Do attitudes toward ecosystem services determine agricultural land use practices? An analysis of farmers’ decision-making in a South Korean watershed

Land Use Policy ◽

10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.08.007 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 31 ◽

pp. 422-429 ◽

Cited By ~ 64

Author(s):

Patrick Poppenborg ◽

Thomas Koellner

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Agricultural Land Use ◽

South Korean ◽

Land Use Practices

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Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-7-151-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 151-165 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Kazi Farzan Ahmed ◽

Guiling Wang ◽

Liangzhi You ◽

Miao Yu

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Land Use ◽

West Africa ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Food Demand ◽

Agricultural Land Use ◽

Socioeconomic Drivers ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Agriculture is a key component of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes that influence regional climate. Meanwhile, in addition to socioeconomic drivers, climate is another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In this study, we compare the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa using a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm. The algorithm is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. The impact of human decision-making on land use is explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios. In the application to West Africa, future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease in crop yield together with future increases in food demand is found to cause a significant increase in cropland areas at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century. The increase in agricultural land use is primarily climate-driven in the western part of West Africa and socioeconomically driven in the eastern part. Analysis of results from multiple scenarios of crop area allocation suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision-making can potentially minimize future land use changes in many parts of the region.

Download Full-text