Mining public opinion: a sentiment based forecasting for democratic elections of Pakistan

Sore Losers: Does Terrorism and Approval of Terrorism Increase in Democracies When Election Losers Refuse to Accept Election Results?

Political Research Quarterly ◽

10.1177/10659129211054451 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 106591292110544

Author(s):

James A. Piazza

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Public Opinion ◽

Panel Data ◽

Political Order ◽

Democratic Institutions ◽

Terrorist Activity ◽

Democratic Rule ◽

Election Results ◽

Democratic Elections ◽

Cross National

A necessary component of peaceful democratic rule is the willingness of election losers to accept election defeats. When politicians and parties acknowledge defeat in democratic elections, they reinforce the peaceful transition of power that sustains political order. When election losers in democracies reject election results, the public’s confidence in democratic institutions is weakened, grievances and polarization abound, and the potential for violent mobilization grows. In this environment, terrorist activity is more likely. I test this proposition using cross-national time series panel data and within-country public opinion data for a wide set of democracies. I find that democracies experience significantly more domestic terrorist casualties when election losers reject election results. Moreover, I find that public willingness to tolerate and justify terrorism as a tactic increases in democratic countries where election losers reject election results.

Download Full-text

Public Opinion in New Democracies and Developing Nations

Political Science ◽

10.1093/obo/9780199756223-0047 ◽

2011 ◽

Author(s):

Doh Chull Shin ◽

Russell J. Dalton

Keyword(s):

Public Opinion ◽

Political Development ◽

Developing Nations ◽

New Democracies ◽

Political Values ◽

The Public ◽

The Social ◽

New Research ◽

Democratic Elections ◽

First Time

Although political development depends on many factors, an important component is the social and political values of the public. For the first time in human history, we have systematic evidence on some aspects of public opinion for the vast majority of nations in the world. These tend to focus on the cultural prerequisites for democracy, the development of democratic elections, and the policy priorities of these publics. The following resources and readings highlight the new research being done in developing nations, which is one of the most rapidly growing areas of public opinion research.

Download Full-text

The Terek Cossacks in the Conditions of “Extending” the New Economic Policy: Changes in the Ethnodemographic Structure and Public Opinion

Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta Serija 4 Istorija Regionovedenie Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija ◽

10.15688/jvolsu4.2019.4.10 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 114-123

Author(s):

Andrey Baranov

Keyword(s):

Economic Policy ◽

Ethnic Identity ◽

Public Opinion ◽

Social Constructivism ◽

Local Governments ◽

New Economic Policy ◽

Land Conflicts ◽

Territorial Structure ◽

Proportional Relationship ◽

Democratic Elections

Introduction. The subject of this work is the ethno-demographic structure and public opinion of the Terek Cossacks during the period of the NEP “extending”. The purpose of the article is to determine the peculiarities of changes in the ethnodemographic structure and public opinion of the Terek Cossacks in the context of “extending” the new economic policy (autumn 1924–1926). Methods and materials. The research methodology includes social constructivism as applied to interpreting the Cossacks’ ethnicity. The paper uses the synchronous and diachronic comparative analysis of political orientations of Cossack property layers; a variation series was built on the materials of the All-Union Census of 1926 to identify the total number of the Terek Cossacks and its ethnic identity. Analysis and results. The policy of party-Soviet authorities on “extending” the NEP was carried out on the Terek in part, which was explained by interethnic and land conflicts in the region, the Terek’s border strategic location. This conclusion relates to the scale of the amnesty of white movement participants, “revitalization” of local Soviets, easing of policies towards well-off layers of the Cossacks, and their public associations. The response of Terek Cossacks manifested in public opinion developed from the initial hope for democratic elections of councils, cooperatives, land societies (autumn 1924 – spring 1925) to disappointment in inconsistent reforms, to Cossacks’ attempts to seize local governments (elections of 1926). The article also proves the predominance of Russian ethnic identity among Terek Cossacks, establishes the territorial structure of their residence area (based on the census of 1926). The author proves the direct proportional relationship between the level of urbanization of the Cossacks living in multiethnic local communities and the choice of Russian identity.

Download Full-text