Time series prediction: Forecasting the future and understanding the past

1994 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Makridakis
2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shang Zhaowei ◽  
Zhang Lingfeng ◽  
Ma Shangjun ◽  
Fang Bin ◽  
Zhang Taiping

This paper discusses the prediction of time series with missing data. A novel forecast model is proposed based on max-margin classification of data with absent features. The issue of modeling incomplete time series is considered as classification of data with absent features. We employ the optimal hyperplane of classification to predict the future values. Compared with traditional predicting process of incomplete time series, our method solves the problem directly rather than fills the missing data in advance. In addition, we introduce an imputation method to estimate the missing data in the history series. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of our model in both prediction and imputation.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahmad Syah

The concept of Fuzzy Time Series to predict things that will happen based on the data in the past, while Markov Chain assist in estimating the changes that may occur in the future. With methods are used to predict the incidence of natural disasters in the future. From the research that has been done, it appears the change, an increase of each disaster, like a tornado reaches 3%, floods reaches 16%, landslides reaches 7%, transport accidents reached 25% and volcanic eruptions as high as 50%.


2015 ◽  
Vol 781 ◽  
pp. 523-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wassanun Sangjun ◽  
Supawat Supakwong ◽  
Suttipong Thajchayapong

This paper proposes a financial time-series prediction method consisting of á Trous wavelet transform and polynomial regression. The main purpose of employing á Trous wavelet transform is to decompose financial time-series signals into different resolutions where only relevant signal components are used for prediction. Also, á Trous wavelet transform is used to avoid the edge problem where only the past and present components of the time-series signal are taken into account. The decomposed time-series signals are then fed into the polynomial regression part to obtain predicted time-series signals. Using real-world data, performance evaluation is conducted based on total benefit and profit/loss where it is shown that á Trous wavelet transform contributes to a significant performance improvement.


Data ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Ciaburro ◽  
Gino Iannace

To predict the future behavior of a system, we can exploit the information collected in the past, trying to identify recurring structures in what happened to predict what could happen, if the same structures repeat themselves in the future as well. A time series represents a time sequence of numerical values observed in the past at a measurable variable. The values are sampled at equidistant time intervals, according to an appropriate granular frequency, such as the day, week, or month, and measured according to physical units of measurement. In machine learning-based algorithms, the information underlying the knowledge is extracted from the data themselves, which are explored and analyzed in search of recurring patterns or to discover hidden causal associations or relationships. The prediction model extracts knowledge through an inductive process: the input is the data and, possibly, a first example of the expected output, the machine will then learn the algorithm to follow to obtain the same result. This paper reviews the most recent work that has used machine learning-based techniques to extract knowledge from time series data.


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