On a class of birth-death processes with time-varying intensity functions

2020 ◽  
Vol 379 ◽  
pp. 125255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginia Giorno ◽  
Amelia G. Nobile
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Cornelius Fritz ◽  
Paul W. Thurner ◽  
Göran Kauermann

Abstract We propose a novel tie-oriented model for longitudinal event network data. The generating mechanism is assumed to be a multivariate Poisson process that governs the onset and repetition of yearly observed events with two separate intensity functions. We apply the model to a network obtained from the yearly dyadic number of international deliveries of combat aircraft trades between 1950 and 2017. Based on the trade gravity approach, we identify economic and political factors impeding or promoting the number of transfers. Extensive dynamics as well as country heterogeneities require the specification of semiparametric time-varying effects as well as random effects. Our findings reveal strong heterogeneous as well as time-varying effects of endogenous and exogenous covariates on the onset and repetition of aircraft trade events.


Author(s):  
Barbara Margolius

A Quasi-Birth-Death (QBD) process is a stochastic process with a two dimensional state space, a level and a phase. An ergodic QBD with time-varying periodic transition rates will tend to an asymptotic periodic solution as time tends to infinity . Such QBDs are also asymptotically geometric. That is, as the level tends to infinity, the probability of the system being in state ( k , j ) (k,j) at time t t within the period tends to an expression of the form f j ( t ) α − k Π j ( k ) f_j(t)\alpha ^{-k}\Pi _j(k) where α \alpha is the smallest root of the determinant of a generating function related to the generating function for the unbounded (in the level) process, Π j ( k ) \Pi _j(k) is a polynomial in k k , the level, that may depend on j j , the phase of the process, and f j ( t ) f_j(t) is a periodic function of time within the period which may also depend on the phase. These solutions are analogous to steady state solutions for QBDs with constant transition rates. If the time within the period is considered to be part of the state of the process, then they are steady-state solutions. In this paper, we consider the example of a two-priority queueing process with finite buffer for class-2 customers. For this example, we provide explicit results up to an integral in terms of the idle probability of the queue. We also use this asymptotic approach to provide exact solutions (up to an integral equation involving the probability the system is in level zero) for some of the level probabilities.


Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1123
Author(s):  
Virginia Giorno ◽  
Amelia G. Nobile

We considered the time-inhomogeneous linear birth–death processes with immigration. For these processes closed form expressions for the transition probabilities were obtained in terms of the complete Bell polynomials. The conditional mean and the conditional variance were explicitly evaluated. Several time-inhomogeneous processes were studied in detail in view of their potential applications in population growth models and in queuing systems. A time-inhomogeneous linear birth–death processes with finite state-space was also taken into account. Special attention was devoted to the cases of periodic immigration intensity functions that play an important role in the description of the evolution of dynamic systems influenced by seasonal immigration or other regular environmental cycles. Various numerical computations were performed for periodic immigration intensity functions.


Paleobiology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Wagner

AbstractThe time separating the first appearances of species from their divergences from related taxa affects assessments of macroevolutionary hypotheses about rates of anatomical or ecological change. Branch durations necessarily posit stratigraphic gaps in sampling within a clade over which we have failed to sample predecessors (ancestors) and over which there are no divergences leading to sampled relatives (sister taxa). The former reflects only sampling rates, whereas the latter reflects sampling, origination, and extinction rates. Because all three rates vary over time, the probability of a branch duration of any particular length will differ depending on when in the Phanerozoic that branch duration spans. Here, I present a birth–death-sampling model allowing interval-to-interval variation in diversification and sampling rates. Increasing either origination or sampling rates increases the probability of finding sister taxa that diverge both during and before intervals of high sampling/origination. Conversely, elevated extinction reduces the probability of divergences from sampled sister taxa before and during intervals of elevated extinction. In the case of total extinction, a Signor-Lipps will reduce expected sister taxa leading up to the extinction, with the possible effect stretching back many millions of years when sampling is low. Simulations indicate that this approach provides reasonable estimates of branch duration probabilities under a variety of circumstances. Because current probability models for describing morphological evolution are less advanced than methods for inferring diversification and sampling rates, branch duration priors allowing for time-varying diversification could be a potent tool for phylogenetic inference with fossil data.


Mathematics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 251
Author(s):  
Virginia Giorno ◽  
Amelia G. Nobile

We consider a time-inhomogeneous Markov chain with a finite state-space which models a system in which failures and repairs can occur at random time instants. The system starts from any state j (operating, F, R). Due to a failure, a transition from an operating state to F occurs after which a repair is required, so that a transition leads to the state R. Subsequently, there is a restore phase, after which the system restarts from one of the operating states. In particular, we assume that the intensity functions of failures, repairs and restores are proportional and that the birth-death process that models the system is a time-inhomogeneous Prendiville process.


1986 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 1013-1018
Author(s):  
B. G. Quinn ◽  
H. L. MacGillivray

Sufficient conditions are presented for the limiting normality of sequences of discrete random variables possessing unimodal distributions. The conditions are applied to obtain normal approximations directly for the hypergeometric distribution and the stationary distribution of a special birth-death process.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document