Correlation analysis on wind and hydro resources with electricity demand and prices in New Zealand

2015 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 445-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiti Suomalainen ◽  
Geoffrey Pritchard ◽  
Basil Sharp ◽  
Ziqi Yuan ◽  
Golbon Zakeri
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Electricity Demand

scholarly journals Energy flexible commercial buildings and the electricity grid

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Sandi Sirikhanchai
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Commercial Buildings ◽  
Commercial Building ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Indoor Thermal Comfort ◽  
Grid Operators ◽  
Grid Management

<p>New Zealand’s energy and electricity system is likely to undergo serious changes with climate change and the decarbonisation of the grid playing a significant role. Research in New Zealand around flexibly managing the electricity grid using buildings has focused on thermoelectric appliances in the residential sector while there has been limited research and quantification of the energy flexibility offered by commercial buildings. Despite this, managing the grid using energy flexible commercial buildings represents an opportunity to achieve meaningful reductions in electricity demand from buildings that are far less numerous than residential buildings.  The aim of this thesis was to establish whether energy flexible commercial buildings in New Zealand can maintain the current quality of indoor thermal comfort and achieve reductions in demand that are sufficiently large that grid operators consider them significant contributors to grid management. By understanding the contribution, we can understand whether energy flexible commercial buildings are worth further investigation. In this thesis, energy flexibility means the ability for a building to manage its demand and generation according to user needs, grid needs, and local climate conditions. Energy flexibility in commercial buildings could then support the integration of more variable renewable energy sources and increase demand response capability which is a cost-effective way to manage network constraints and reduce non-renewable  electricity generation.   Case studies of New Zealand commercial buildings represented as Building Energy Models (BEMs) were simulated under energy flexible operation in a building performance simulation software (EnergyPlus). The selected case studies were small commercial buildings less than 1,499m² in size and which all contained heat pumps. The buildings were of office, retail, and mixed-use types. Two simple energy flexibility strategies were simulated in the buildings and the results from each building were then aggregated and extrapolated across the New Zealand commercial building stock. The strategies simply shifted and shed heating electricity demand. This was done to test whether implementing basic energy flexibility strategies have the potential to reduce electricity demand by a meaningful magnitude.   At best the commercial building stock’s peak demand could reduce by 177MW by energy flexibly operating 45% of the commercial building stock, this was equivalent to around 11,700 buildings. In this scenario heating was shifted to start 150 minutes earlier in the morning. The study concluded that there is energy flexibility potential in New Zealand commercial buildings that results in demand reductions sufficiently large enough for grid operators to consider significant for grid management. This could be achieved without seriously jeopardising the current quality of indoor thermal comfort and warrants further investigation into energy flexible commercial buildings. This thesis also presented a refined methodology and energy modelling practice that could be used by other researchers to model and evaluate energy flexible buildings without the need to recreate the same methodology.</p>

scholarly journals Energy flexible commercial buildings and the electricity grid

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Sandi Sirikhanchai
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Commercial Buildings ◽  
Commercial Building ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Indoor Thermal Comfort ◽  
Grid Operators ◽  
Grid Management

<p>New Zealand’s energy and electricity system is likely to undergo serious changes with climate change and the decarbonisation of the grid playing a significant role. Research in New Zealand around flexibly managing the electricity grid using buildings has focused on thermoelectric appliances in the residential sector while there has been limited research and quantification of the energy flexibility offered by commercial buildings. Despite this, managing the grid using energy flexible commercial buildings represents an opportunity to achieve meaningful reductions in electricity demand from buildings that are far less numerous than residential buildings.  The aim of this thesis was to establish whether energy flexible commercial buildings in New Zealand can maintain the current quality of indoor thermal comfort and achieve reductions in demand that are sufficiently large that grid operators consider them significant contributors to grid management. By understanding the contribution, we can understand whether energy flexible commercial buildings are worth further investigation. In this thesis, energy flexibility means the ability for a building to manage its demand and generation according to user needs, grid needs, and local climate conditions. Energy flexibility in commercial buildings could then support the integration of more variable renewable energy sources and increase demand response capability which is a cost-effective way to manage network constraints and reduce non-renewable  electricity generation.   Case studies of New Zealand commercial buildings represented as Building Energy Models (BEMs) were simulated under energy flexible operation in a building performance simulation software (EnergyPlus). The selected case studies were small commercial buildings less than 1,499m² in size and which all contained heat pumps. The buildings were of office, retail, and mixed-use types. Two simple energy flexibility strategies were simulated in the buildings and the results from each building were then aggregated and extrapolated across the New Zealand commercial building stock. The strategies simply shifted and shed heating electricity demand. This was done to test whether implementing basic energy flexibility strategies have the potential to reduce electricity demand by a meaningful magnitude.   At best the commercial building stock’s peak demand could reduce by 177MW by energy flexibly operating 45% of the commercial building stock, this was equivalent to around 11,700 buildings. In this scenario heating was shifted to start 150 minutes earlier in the morning. The study concluded that there is energy flexibility potential in New Zealand commercial buildings that results in demand reductions sufficiently large enough for grid operators to consider significant for grid management. This could be achieved without seriously jeopardising the current quality of indoor thermal comfort and warrants further investigation into energy flexible commercial buildings. This thesis also presented a refined methodology and energy modelling practice that could be used by other researchers to model and evaluate energy flexible buildings without the need to recreate the same methodology.</p>

scholarly journals The Market for Electric Vehicles in New Zealand: Using stated choice methods to evaluate the implications for electricity demand and carbon emissions to 2030

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Douglas George Clover
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Purchase Price ◽  
Stated Choice ◽  
Generation Capacity ◽  
Stock Model

<p>Anthropogenic global climate change caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the combustion of fossil fuels is one of the greatest environmental threats faced by society. Electric vehicles (EVs), which use lithium-ion battery technology, have been proposed as a means of reducing GHG emissions produced by light passenger vehicles (LPVs). The ability of this vehicle technology to assist in reducing GHG emissions will depend on the market uptake and the effect that a growing EV fleet has on the GHG emissions produced by the electricity sector.   This thesis is the first use of stated choice methods in New Zealand to develop a vehicle demand model that takes detailed account of car buyers’ preferences for EV purchase price, driving range, performance, fuel and battery costs, and charging network availability.  A nationwide stated choice survey of New Zealand car buyers was undertaken in 2010 (n=281). The data from the survey was used to estimate a mixed multinomial logit discrete choice model, which was linked to a vehicle stock model of the New Zealand LPV fleet developed for this research. These two models were then used to simulate the New Zealand vehicle stock and energy demand, and the LPV fleet’s GHG emissions over a twenty year period.  The Electricity Commission’s mixed integer programming ‘generation expansion model’ (GEM) was used to take account of the additional GHG emissions produced by the electricity sector in response to meeting the electricity demand estimates from the vehicle stock model.  The results of this study indicate that, assuming the current state of EV technology and only modest reductions in EV prices over the modelling period, there would be sufficient demand for EVs to reduce, by 2030, the annual GHG emissions produced by the LPV fleet to approximately 80% of levels emitted in 2010. Changes in technology or vehicle design that reduce the cost of batteries and the purchase price of EVs would have the greatest impact in increasing the demand for these vehicles, and would further reduce the GHG emissions produced by the LPV fleet.  The electricity sector modelling indicates that less than 730 MW of additional generation capacity will be required to be built if network operators can prevent EVs from charging during periods of peak demand, but without this capability, up to 4,400 MW of additional generation capacity could be required. The modelling also indicates that a policy environment where the use of coal-fuelled electricity generation is permitted and the price of carbon limited to $25 per tonne, the increased electricity sector GHG emissions that would result offset 88% of the cumulative GHG emission reductions achieved by the introduction of EVs into the LPV fleet. A policy raising the price of carbon to $100 per tonne would reduce the offsetting effect to 30%.  EVs are an emerging technology with considerable potential for further development. The results of this study indicate that even at current prices and levels of technological performance, EVs have the capacity to make a significant contribution to New Zealand’s efforts to reduce GHG emissions. However, the ability to realise this potential is dependent on vehicle manufacturers’ willingness to produce EVs in sufficient quantities and models so that they can fully compete in the market with internal combustion engine vehicles; and on policies that discourage the future use of coal-fuelled electricity generation.</p>

scholarly journals Understanding the variability in sheep and beef farm profitability

2011 ◽  
pp. 23-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.W. Hawkins ◽  
S. Wu
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Stocking Rate ◽  
Simple Correlation ◽  
Hill Country ◽  
Farm Profitability ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Initial Results ◽  
Profit Potential

A wide variation in profitability exists between farmers across New Zealand. Not all of this variation can be simply attributed to land class, absolute production levels or debt levels. Understanding what makes one farmer profitable when another struggles to break even is necessary to enable the development of programmes and support to improve the overall sector's profitability. This paper reports on the results of exploratory analysis on North Island hard hill country to identify what factors are linked to the large variation in profitability observed between farms. The exploratory analysis used simple correlation analysis to study the relationship between selected farm attributes to identify those that appear most important to determining overall farm profitability. The initial results indicated that on Class 3 farms stocking rate, sheep to cattle ratio and lambing percentage are important variables related to profit. As with any business, realising the profit potential of a farm is the combination of a well thought through strategy and sound execution. The variables identified in this exploratory analysis are core parts of the strategy, but to realise the profit potential, implementing these has to be tailored to the farm. Keywords: profit, hill country, stocking rate, sheep to cattle ratio, lambing percentage, EBITR (Earnings before Interest, Tax and Rent)

scholarly journals The Market for Electric Vehicles in New Zealand: Using stated choice methods to evaluate the implications for electricity demand and carbon emissions to 2030

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Douglas George Clover
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Purchase Price ◽  
Stated Choice ◽  
Generation Capacity ◽  
Stock Model

<p>Anthropogenic global climate change caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the combustion of fossil fuels is one of the greatest environmental threats faced by society. Electric vehicles (EVs), which use lithium-ion battery technology, have been proposed as a means of reducing GHG emissions produced by light passenger vehicles (LPVs). The ability of this vehicle technology to assist in reducing GHG emissions will depend on the market uptake and the effect that a growing EV fleet has on the GHG emissions produced by the electricity sector.   This thesis is the first use of stated choice methods in New Zealand to develop a vehicle demand model that takes detailed account of car buyers’ preferences for EV purchase price, driving range, performance, fuel and battery costs, and charging network availability.  A nationwide stated choice survey of New Zealand car buyers was undertaken in 2010 (n=281). The data from the survey was used to estimate a mixed multinomial logit discrete choice model, which was linked to a vehicle stock model of the New Zealand LPV fleet developed for this research. These two models were then used to simulate the New Zealand vehicle stock and energy demand, and the LPV fleet’s GHG emissions over a twenty year period.  The Electricity Commission’s mixed integer programming ‘generation expansion model’ (GEM) was used to take account of the additional GHG emissions produced by the electricity sector in response to meeting the electricity demand estimates from the vehicle stock model.  The results of this study indicate that, assuming the current state of EV technology and only modest reductions in EV prices over the modelling period, there would be sufficient demand for EVs to reduce, by 2030, the annual GHG emissions produced by the LPV fleet to approximately 80% of levels emitted in 2010. Changes in technology or vehicle design that reduce the cost of batteries and the purchase price of EVs would have the greatest impact in increasing the demand for these vehicles, and would further reduce the GHG emissions produced by the LPV fleet.  The electricity sector modelling indicates that less than 730 MW of additional generation capacity will be required to be built if network operators can prevent EVs from charging during periods of peak demand, but without this capability, up to 4,400 MW of additional generation capacity could be required. The modelling also indicates that a policy environment where the use of coal-fuelled electricity generation is permitted and the price of carbon limited to $25 per tonne, the increased electricity sector GHG emissions that would result offset 88% of the cumulative GHG emission reductions achieved by the introduction of EVs into the LPV fleet. A policy raising the price of carbon to $100 per tonne would reduce the offsetting effect to 30%.  EVs are an emerging technology with considerable potential for further development. The results of this study indicate that even at current prices and levels of technological performance, EVs have the capacity to make a significant contribution to New Zealand’s efforts to reduce GHG emissions. However, the ability to realise this potential is dependent on vehicle manufacturers’ willingness to produce EVs in sufficient quantities and models so that they can fully compete in the market with internal combustion engine vehicles; and on policies that discourage the future use of coal-fuelled electricity generation.</p>

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