The global dynamics for an age-structured tuberculosis transmission model with the exponential progression rate

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 769-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongxue Yan ◽  
Hui Cao
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Model ◽  
Progression Rate ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Tuberculosis Transmission ◽  
Age Structured

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan H. van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin C. J. Bootsma ◽  
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

scholarly journals Mathematical Models for Assessing Vaccination Scenarios in Several Provinces in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Nuraini ◽  
K. Khairudin ◽  
P. Hadisoemarto ◽  
H. Susanto ◽  
A. Hasan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
West Java ◽  
Dynamic Transmission Model ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Age Structured

AbstractTo mitigate more casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study assessed optimal vaccination scenarios, considering some existing healthcare conditions and some assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models included an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally could give different treatments among age groups of population. The simulation results show that the timing and period’s length of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give significant impact on the total number of casualties.

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin Bootsma ◽  
Janneke van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

Abstract The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We used an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

scholarly journals Global dynamics of a Huanglongbing model with a periodic latent period

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Yan Hong ◽  
Xiuxiang Liu ◽  
Xiao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Candidatus Liberibacter ◽  
Effects Of Temperature ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>Huanglongbing (HLB) is a disease of citrus that caused by phloem-restricted bacteria of the Candidatus Liberibacter group. In this paper, we present a HLB transmission model to investigate the effects of temperature-dependent latent periods and seasonality on the spread of HLB. We first establish disease free dynamics in terms of a threshold value <inline-formula><tex-math id="M1">\begin{document}$ R^p_0 $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula>, and then introduce the basic reproduction number <inline-formula><tex-math id="M2">\begin{document}$ \mathcal{R}_0 $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula> and show the threshold dynamics of HLB with respect to <inline-formula><tex-math id="M3">\begin{document}$ R^p $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula> and <inline-formula><tex-math id="M4">\begin{document}$ \mathcal{R}_0 $\end{document}</tex-math></inline-formula>. Numerical simulations are further provided to illustrate our analytic results.</p>

scholarly journals The Role of Migration in Maintaining the Transmission of Avian Influenza in Waterfowl: A Multisite Multispecies Transmission Model along East Asian-Australian Flyway

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akira Endo ◽  
Hiroshi Nishiura
Keyword(s):  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Influenza Transmission

Background. Migratory waterfowl annually migrate over the continents along the routes known as flyways, serving as carriers of avian influenza virus across distant locations. Prevalence of influenza varies with species, and there are also geographical and temporal variations. However, the role of long-distance migration in multispecies transmission dynamics has yet to be understood. We constructed a mathematical model to capture the global dynamics of avian influenza, identifying species and locations that contribute to sustaining transmission.Methods. We devised a multisite, multispecies SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, and estimated transmission rates within and between species in each geographical location from prevalence data. Parameters were directly sampled from posterior distribution under Bayesian inference framework. We then analyzed contribution of each species in each location to the global patterns of influenza transmission.Results. Transmission and migration parameters were estimated by Bayesian posterior sampling. The basic reproduction number was estimated at 1.1, slightly above the endemic threshold. Mallard was found to be the most important host with the highest transmission potential, and high- and middle-latitude regions appeared to act as hotspots of influenza transmission. The local reproduction number suggested that the prevalence of avian influenza in the Oceania region is dependent on the inflow of infected birds from other regions.Conclusion. Mallard exhibited the highest transmission rate among the species explored. Migration was suggested to be a key factor of the global prevalence of avian influenza, as transmission is locally sustainable only in the northern hemisphere, and the virus could be extinct in the Oceania region without migration.

Global stability of an age-structured SVEIR epidemic model with waning immunity, latency and relapse

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 1750038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Liu ◽  
Xianning Liu
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Stability ◽  
Global Asymptotic Stability ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Uniform Persistence ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Sharp Threshold ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Waning Immunity ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Disease Free

The global dynamics of an SVEIR epidemic model with age-dependent waning immunity, latency and relapse are studied. Sharp threshold properties for global asymptotic stability of both disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are given. The asymptotic smoothness, uniform persistence and the existence of interior global attractor of the semi-flow generated by a family of solutions of the system are also addressed. Furthermore, some related strategies for controlling the spread of diseases are discussed.

Optimal Control Solution of a Tuberculosis Transmission Model with Recurrent Infection and Vaccination Using C# Programming

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-55
Author(s):  
J. Nainggolan ◽  
Sudradjat Supian ◽  
A. K. Supriatna ◽  
N. Anggriani ◽  
. Detiatrimargini
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Recurrent Infection ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Control Solution ◽  
Tuberculosis Transmission ◽  
C Programming
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