Storm damage risk assessment for offshore cage culture

This paper evaluates the reliability of the currently used climate-based indices in selecting a moisture reference year (MRY) for the freeze-thaw (FT) damage risk assessment of internally insulated solid brick walls. The evaluation methodology compares the ranking of the years determined by the climate-based indices and response-based indices from simulations, regarded as actual performance. The hygrothermal response of an old brick masonry wall assembly, before and after retrofit, was investigated in two Canadian cities under historical and projected future climates. Results indicated that climate-based indices failed to represent the actual performance. However, among the response-based indices, the freeze-thaw damage risk index (FTDR) showed a better correlation with the climate-based indices. Additionally, results indicated a better correlation between the climatic index (CI), the moisture index (MI), and FTDR in Ottawa; however, in Vancouver, a better fit was found between MI and FTDR. Moreover, the risk of freeze-thaw increased considerably after interior insulation was added under both historical and projected future climates. The risk of FT damage would increase for Ottawa but decrease for Vancouver under a warming climate projected in the future, based on the climate scenario used in this study. Further research is needed to develop a more reliable method for the ranking and the selection of MRYs on the basis of climate-based indices that is suitable for freeze-thaw damage risk assessment.

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Integral method for evaluating the activity results of main offices of EMERCOM of Russia for the subjects of the Russian Federation

Pozharnaia bezopasnost` ◽

10.37657/vniipo.pb.2021.77.97.004 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 40-54

Author(s):

Александр Васильевич Матюшин ◽

Юрий Александрович Матюшин ◽

Александр Георгиевич Фирсов ◽

Валентина Сергеевна Гончаренко

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Russian Federation ◽

Fire Safety ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Safety Level ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

The Developed Countries ◽

Object Of Control ◽

Damage Risk

Предложена математическая модель и рассчитаны значения риска причинения вреда (ущерба) в результате пожаров в субъекте Российской Федерации. Субъекты Российской Федерации распределены по категориям уровня обеспечения пожарной безопасности в зависимости от расчетного значения риска причинения вреда (ущерба) в результате пожаров в субъекте Российской Федерации. Предложены оценки результатов деятельности ГУ МЧС России в зависимости от риска причинения вреда (ущерба) и категории уровня обеспечения пожарной безопасности, к которому отнесены субъекты Российской Федерации. The regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation establish that the criteria for assigning objects of control to the categories of damage risk should be formed based on the results of the damage risk assessment. In the developed countries of the world, as a rule, the distribution of objects of control by risk categories is used to justify the frequency of their inspections and is carried out depending either on the point risk assessment or on the number and seriousness of violations of mandatory fire safety requirements identified during the inspection of the object of control. In the literature sources there are no mathematical models for determining the damage risk as a result of a fire in buildings for evaluating the activity results of fire authorities (Main offices of EMERCOM of Russia). The purpose of this work was to develop and test a mathematical model for evaluating the activity and rating of the Main offices of EMERCOM of Russia for the subjects of the Russian Federation based on the category of fire safety level. As a criterion for assigning the subjects of the Russian Federation to different categories of fire safety level it is proposed to use the damage risk as a result of a fire in buildings located on the territory of the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation. The mathematical model has been developed to determine the damage risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of a fire in a building and there is given its assessment for buildings on the territory of each subject of the Russian Federation. There was carried out the distribution of the subjects of the Russian Federation according to the categories of fire safety based on the calculated value of damage risk. It is shown that such distribution significantly depends on the objectivity of statistical information on fires and the number of buildings on the territory of each subject of the Russian Federation. The assessment of the activity results for each of 86 EMERCOM of Russia Main offices was made and they were rated based on the category of fire safety level of the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation.

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Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack

Natural Hazards ◽

10.1007/s11069-006-0025-7 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 39 (2) ◽

pp. 231-243 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Ayşen Ergin ◽

Can Elmar Balas

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Damage Risk

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Risk assessment of building damage related to extreme winter windstorms in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17644 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas Röösli ◽

Christoph Welker ◽

David Bresch

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Claims Data ◽

Rare Events ◽

Damage Model ◽

Building Damage ◽

Insurance Companies ◽

Wind Gust ◽

Storm Damage ◽

Insurance Claims ◽

Insurance Claims Data

We compare the risk assessment for storm related building damage based on three different foundations: (1) insurance claims data, (2) modelled building damages based on a historic event set of wind gust data, and (3) modelled building damages based on a probabilistic extension of the historic event set. Windstorms cause large socio-economic damages in Europe. In the canton of Zurich (Switzerland) they are responsible for one third of the building damages caused by natural hazards.The Wind Storm Information Service (WISC) of the Copernicus Climate Change Service provides open wind gust datasets for the insurance sector to understand and assess the risk of windstorms in Europe. This is the first open climatological data set covering a longer time range than the insurance claims data of most small insurance companies. Our science-practice collaboration is a case study to illustrate how climatological data can be used in risk assessments in the insurance sector and how this approach compares to risk assessments based on proprietary claims data. We describe and use a storm damage model that combines wind gust data with exposure and vulnerability information to compute an event set of modelled building damages. These modelled damages are used to calculate relevant risk metrics for the insurance industry like the annual expected damage (AED) as well as the damage of rare events, with a return period of up to 250 years.The AED calculated based on the insurance claims data (i.e. the mean damage over the observation period of 35 years) is 2.34 million Swiss Francs (CHF). This is almost double the value of the AED computed based on the storm damage model and historic event set (CHF 1.36 million). The storm Lothar/Martin in December 1999 is the most damaging event in the insurance claims data (CHF 62.4 million) as well as the historic event set (modelled building damage of CHF 62.7 million).Both the insurance claims data and the modelled building damages based on historic events are not well suited to derive information about rare events with return periods considerably exceeding the observation period. To provide some information about rare events, we propose a new probabilistic event set, by introducing various perturbations, resulting in 4&#8217;200 events. This probabilistic event set results in an AED of CHF 1.45 million and a damage amount of CHF 75 million for a return period of 250 years. The probabilistic event set allows for testing the sensitivity of the risk to e.g. portfolio changes and changes in the insurance condition for events of a higher intensity than the historic events.Our analysis is implemented in the GVZ&#8217;s proprietary storm damage model as well as the open-source risk assessment platform CLIMADA (https://github.com/CLIMADA-project/climada_python). This guarantees scientific reproducibility and offers insurance companies the opportunity to apply this methodology to their own portfolio with a low entry threshold.

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Damage Prediction Using Heavy Rain Risk Assessment: (1) Estimation of Heavy Rain Damage Risk Index

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation ◽

10.9798/kosham.2017.17.2.361 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

pp. 361-370 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jongsung Kim ◽

◽

Changhyun Choi ◽

Jongso Lee ◽

Hung Soo Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Index ◽

Heavy Rain ◽

Damage Prediction ◽

Damage Risk

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Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (6) ◽

pp. 1573-1593

Author(s):

Marco Broccardo ◽

Arnaud Mignan ◽

Francesco Grigoli ◽

Dimitrios Karvounis ◽

Antonio Pio Rinaldi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Induced Seismicity ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Total Duration ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Hydraulic Stimulation ◽

Starting Point ◽

Damage Risk ◽

Stimulation Of

Abstract. The rapid increase in energy demand in the city of Reykjavik has posed the need for an additional supply of deep geothermal energy. The deep-hydraulic (re-)stimulation of well RV-43 on the peninsula of Geldinganes (north of Reykjavik) is an essential component of the plan implemented by Reykjavik Energy to meet this energy target. Hydraulic stimulation is often associated with fluid-induced seismicity, most of which is not felt on the surface but which, in rare cases, can be a nuisance to the population and even damage the nearby building stock. This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic hazard and risk analysis for the site of interest. Specifically, we provide probabilistic estimates of peak ground acceleration, European microseismicity intensity, probability of light damage (damage risk), and individual risk. The results of the risk assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below 0.1 micromorts, and damage risk is below 10−2, for the total duration of the project. However, these results are affected by several orders of magnitude of variability due to the deep uncertainties present at all levels of the analysis, indicating a critical need in updating this risk assessment with in situ data collected during the stimulation. Therefore, it is important to stress that this a priori study represents a baseline model and starting point to be updated and refined after the start of the project.

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