A Static Pulling Test Is a Suitable Method for Comparison of the Loading Resistance of Silver Birch (Betula pendula Roth.) between Urban and Peri-Urban Forests

In urbanized areas, wind disturbances can be intensified by anthropogenic stresses under which trees may become hazardous, creating serious threats and damages to nearby targets. Therefore, species with notably lower both wood mechanical properties and compartmentalization, such as pioneers, are considered to have higher wind damage risk if subjected to unfavorable growing conditions. Eurasian aspen (Populus tremula L.) and silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.), are frequently found in both urban and peri-urban forests in Northeastern and Central parts of Europe, which strengthen the necessity for the evaluation of mechanical stability of such species. Therefore, static pulling tests were performed to compare the mechanical stability of the studied species in both urban and peri-urban forests. The loading resistance of the studied species differed, with birch being more stable than aspen, indicating aspen to be more prone to wind damage. Additionally, the mechanical stability of birch did not differ between trees growing in urban and peri-urban forests, suggesting static pulling tests are a suitable method for comparing trees from completely different growing conditions.

Tropical Cyclone Damage Assessment using a Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster Model

Using data from 62 tropical cyclones (TCs) that landed in Guangdong Province in China between 2000 and 2019, we calculated six indices—minimum central pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum rainstorm ratio, cumulative surface rainfall, cyclone track length and lifetime—and constructed a projection pursuit dynamic cluster (PPDC) model to assess TC damage risk. Although a single index may provide correct information on the intensity of certain types of damage, a comprehensive damage risk assessment cannot be obtained from individual indices alone. The PPDC model is a stable tool for TC damage risk assessment, especially in terms of economic loss, agricultural disaster area and disaster-affected population. Model validation improved the correlation of each of the indices. Output from the PPDC model for disaster-affected population and agricultural disaster-affected area also improved after model validation. We examined the limitations of the single indices using data from three TCs. Output from the PPDC model can closely reflect the intensity of the damage caused by the cyclones. Projection pursuit dynamic clustering is a new and objective method for typhoon damage risk assessment, and provides the scientific basis to support disaster prevention and mitigation.

Plasma S-Adenosylmethionine Is Associated with Lung Injury in COVID-19

Objective. S-Adenosylmethionine (SAM) and S-adenosylhomocysteine (SAH) are indicators of global transmethylation and may play an important role as markers of severity of COVID-19. Methods. The levels of plasma SAM and SAH were determined in patients admitted with COVID-19 ( n = 56 , mean age = 61 ). Lung injury was identified by computed tomography (CT) in accordance with the CT0-4 classification. Results. SAM was found to be a potential marker of lung damage risk in COVID-19 patients ( SAM > 80 nM ; CT3,4 vs. CT 0-2: relative ratio (RR) was 3.0; p = 0.0029 ). SAM / SAH > 6.0 was also found to be a marker of lung injury (CT2-4 vs. CT0,1: RR = 3.47 , p = 0.0004 ). There was a negative association between SAM and glutathione level ( ρ = − 0.343 , p = 0.011 ). Interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were associated with SAM ( ρ = 0.44 , p = 0.01 ) and SAH ( ρ = 0.534 , p = 0.001 ) levels. Conclusions. A high SAM level and high methylation index are associated with the risk of lung injury in patients with COVID-19. The association of SAM with IL-6 and glutathione indicates an important role of transmethylation in the development of cytokine imbalance and oxidative stress in patients with COVID-19.

Integral method for evaluating the activity results of main offices of EMERCOM of Russia for the subjects of the Russian Federation

Предложена математическая модель и рассчитаны значения риска причинения вреда (ущерба) в результате пожаров в субъекте Российской Федерации. Субъекты Российской Федерации распределены по категориям уровня обеспечения пожарной безопасности в зависимости от расчетного значения риска причинения вреда (ущерба) в результате пожаров в субъекте Российской Федерации. Предложены оценки результатов деятельности ГУ МЧС России в зависимости от риска причинения вреда (ущерба) и категории уровня обеспечения пожарной безопасности, к которому отнесены субъекты Российской Федерации. The regulatory legal acts of the Russian Federation establish that the criteria for assigning objects of control to the categories of damage risk should be formed based on the results of the damage risk assessment. In the developed countries of the world, as a rule, the distribution of objects of control by risk categories is used to justify the frequency of their inspections and is carried out depending either on the point risk assessment or on the number and seriousness of violations of mandatory fire safety requirements identified during the inspection of the object of control. In the literature sources there are no mathematical models for determining the damage risk as a result of a fire in buildings for evaluating the activity results of fire authorities (Main offices of EMERCOM of Russia). The purpose of this work was to develop and test a mathematical model for evaluating the activity and rating of the Main offices of EMERCOM of Russia for the subjects of the Russian Federation based on the category of fire safety level. As a criterion for assigning the subjects of the Russian Federation to different categories of fire safety level it is proposed to use the damage risk as a result of a fire in buildings located on the territory of the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation. The mathematical model has been developed to determine the damage risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of a fire in a building and there is given its assessment for buildings on the territory of each subject of the Russian Federation. There was carried out the distribution of the subjects of the Russian Federation according to the categories of fire safety based on the calculated value of damage risk. It is shown that such distribution significantly depends on the objectivity of statistical information on fires and the number of buildings on the territory of each subject of the Russian Federation. The assessment of the activity results for each of 86 EMERCOM of Russia Main offices was made and they were rated based on the category of fire safety level of the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation.

How Hurricane Katrina influenced the design of hurricane protection and risk reduction systems and national approaches to risk and resilience. Part 2: Designing the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System and resulting long-term engineering guidance and practice changes

Following Hurricane Katrina, the US Army Corps of Engineers, supported in part by the risk and reliability analysis conducted by the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET), made a major shift from ‘protection’ to ‘risk reduction’ as the principal goal in flood mitigation. The mitigation of the flood risk in Southeast Louisiana was embodied in the design and construction of the ‘Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System’, the post-Katrina initiative for New Orleans flood mitigation. It also spawned a major overhaul of many of the Corps of Engineers’ technical guidance and engineering practice documents, incorporating risk as a key measure in the planning and design processes. The criteria applied for the design of the HSDRRS are discussed, with summaries of the associated major changes in Corps engineering guidance and practice relevant to flood mitigation.

Impact of climate change on the wind-driven rain exposure of a historical building

Due to climate change, considering future rain event patterns and increased average temperatures, wind-driven rain exposure of buildings can increase. In order to assess the future damage risk related to moisture, it is essential to take the future wind-driven rain load into account. Computational fluid dynamics simulations of wind-driven rain are performed on a historical building located in Victoria, BC, Canada using the current and future weather data. The results show an increased wind-driven rain exposure of the building by up to 20%, especially in façade regions which are already exposed to a higher amount of rain.

Reliability of Existing Climate Indices in Assessing the Freeze-Thaw Damage Risk of Internally Insulated Masonry Walls

This paper evaluates the reliability of the currently used climate-based indices in selecting a moisture reference year (MRY) for the freeze-thaw (FT) damage risk assessment of internally insulated solid brick walls. The evaluation methodology compares the ranking of the years determined by the climate-based indices and response-based indices from simulations, regarded as actual performance. The hygrothermal response of an old brick masonry wall assembly, before and after retrofit, was investigated in two Canadian cities under historical and projected future climates. Results indicated that climate-based indices failed to represent the actual performance. However, among the response-based indices, the freeze-thaw damage risk index (FTDR) showed a better correlation with the climate-based indices. Additionally, results indicated a better correlation between the climatic index (CI), the moisture index (MI), and FTDR in Ottawa; however, in Vancouver, a better fit was found between MI and FTDR. Moreover, the risk of freeze-thaw increased considerably after interior insulation was added under both historical and projected future climates. The risk of FT damage would increase for Ottawa but decrease for Vancouver under a warming climate projected in the future, based on the climate scenario used in this study. Further research is needed to develop a more reliable method for the ranking and the selection of MRYs on the basis of climate-based indices that is suitable for freeze-thaw damage risk assessment.