A climatic study of severe storms over Bulgaria produced by Mediterranean cyclones in 1990−2001 period

2007 ◽  
Vol 83 (2-4) ◽  
pp. 284-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lilia Bocheva ◽  
Christo G. Georgiev ◽  
Petio Simeonov
2015 ◽  
Vol 156 ◽  
pp. 91-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. de la Torre ◽  
H. Pessano ◽  
R. Hierro ◽  
J.R. Santos ◽  
P. Llamedo ◽  
...  

1992 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Davis ◽  
Robert F. Rogers

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 429-441
Author(s):  
Oana Catrina ◽  
Sabina Ştefan ◽  
Cristian Crăciun

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2487-2501 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Roberts ◽  
A. J. Champion ◽  
L. C. Dawkins ◽  
K. I. Hodges ◽  
L. C. Shaffrey ◽  
...  

Abstract. The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high-loss (severe) storms. The best-performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated. Possible reasons for this underestimation include the model failing to simulate strong enough pressure gradients and not representing convective gusts. A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at http://www.europeanwindstorms.org .


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca D. Adams-Selin ◽  
Adam J. Clark ◽  
Christopher J. Melick ◽  
Scott R. Dembek ◽  
Israel L. Jirak ◽  
...  

Abstract Four different versions of the HAILCAST hail model have been tested as part of the 2014–16 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiments. HAILCAST was run as part of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF Ensemble during 2014–16 and the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) in 2016. Objective verification using the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor maximum expected size of hail (MRMS MESH) product was conducted using both object-based and neighborhood grid-based verification. Subjective verification and feedback was provided by HWT participants. Hourly maximum storm surrogate fields at a variety of thresholds and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks were also evaluated for comparison. HAILCAST was found to improve with each version due to feedback from the 2014–16 HWTs. The 2016 version of HAILCAST was equivalent to or exceeded the skill of the tested storm surrogates across a variety of thresholds. The post-2016 version of HAILCAST was found to improve 50-mm hail forecasts through object-based verification, but 25-mm hail forecasting ability declined as measured through neighborhood grid-based verification. The skill of the storm surrogate fields varied widely as the threshold values used to determine hail size were varied. HAILCAST was found not to require such tuning, as it produced consistent results even when used across different model configurations and horizontal grid spacings. Additionally, different storm surrogate fields performed at varying levels of skill when forecasting 25- versus 50-mm hail, hinting at the different convective modes typically associated with small versus large sizes of hail. HAILCAST was able to match results relatively consistently with the best-performing storm surrogate field across multiple hail size thresholds.


1988 ◽  
Vol 1 (21) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
T.A. Fenaish ◽  
M.F. Overton ◽  
J.S. Fisher

Shorelines are continuously adjusting in response to the changing hydraulic and meteorological conditions. Storms that generate large waves and surge conditions can alter the nearshore topography and relocate the beach shorelines, often with substantial amounts of beach and dune erosion. Such storms pose a major threat to coastal developments for which the economic impact can be significant. The ability to predict the rate of erosion and, consequently the shoreline change, is important in making decisions regarding the planning and managing of the coastal regions. In general, the available methods for the prediction of beach and dune erosion are based on the assumption of post-storm equilibrium profile. In this approach it is assumed that, for a given set of wave and surge conditions, the entire beach reaches a steadystate, and that the volume of sand released from the dune is equal to the volume of sand required to establish this profile. Existing methods that are based on this concept include those developed by Edelman (1968, 1972), Vellinga (1982, 1983, 1986), Kriebel and Dean (1984), Sargent and Birkemeier (1985), and Kobayashi (1987).. The reliance of these methods on the assumption of steady-state condition limits their application to extreme events generated by severe storms. Generally, storms do not have sufficient duration or intensity, such that the beach profile attains equilibrium during the storm.


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