Future projections of Mediterranean cyclone characteristics using the Med-CORDEX ensemble of coupled regional climate system models

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better understanding the driving mechanisms of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones properties.

WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MEDITERRANEAN CYCLONES ACTIVITY AND THE IMPACT ON FLIGHT SAFETY DURING WINTER OPERATIONS AT HENRI COANDA OTOPENI AND AUREL VLAICU BANEASA AIRPORTS

The regulated airspace in which aircraft flights take place is part of the Earth's atmosphere. At the same time, the same airspace is the seat of meteorological process and phenomena that have no borders and whose activity is not regulated, but whose evolution in time and behavior is governed by their own laws. This study presents, in a descriptive manner, low level dangerous weather conditions associated with wind shear also called the invisible killer. The phenomenon can occur locally, extremely rarely (3-4 times per year) during winter operations, mainly in January, under the activity of Mediterranean cyclones and its uniqueness consists in duration and intensity. To highlight the impact on flight safety in winter operations, especially in the current context of global warming, the reference and analysis periods applicable to this study are indissolubly reduced to days and minutes. When we talk about flight safety, the immediate application of corrective actions by pilots, the reference period is indissolubly reduced to seconds, those seconds that can make the difference between life and death

Mediterranean cyclones: Current knowledge and open questions on dynamics, prediction, climatology and impacts

A large number of intense cyclones occur every year in the Mediterranean basin, one of the climate change hotspots. Producing a broad range of severe socio-economic and environmental impacts in such a densely populated region, Mediterranean cyclones call for coordinated and interdisciplinary research efforts. This article aims at supporting these efforts by reviewing the status of knowledge in the broad field of Mediterranean cyclones. First, we focus on the dynamics and atmospheric processes that govern the genesis and development of Mediterranean cyclones. Then, we review the state of the art in forecasting cyclones and relevant high-impact weather. Particular attention is given to Mediterranean cyclone tracks and their physical characteristics in current and future climate. Finally, we focus on the impacts produced by cyclones and we outline the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole.

A process-based anatomy of Mediterranean cyclones: from baroclinic lows to tropical-like systems

In this study, we address the question of the atmospheric processes that turn Mediterranean cyclones into severe storms. Our approach applies online potential vorticity (PV) budget diagnostics and piecewise PV inversion to WRF model simulations of the mature stage of 100 intense Mediterranean cyclones. We quantify the relative contributions of different processes to cyclone development and therefore deliver, for the first time, a comprehensive insight into the variety of cyclonic systems that develop in the Mediterranean from the perspective of cyclone dynamics. In particular, we show that all 100 cyclones are systematically influenced by two main PV anomalies: a major anomaly in the upper troposphere, related to the baroclinic forcing of cyclone development, and a minor anomaly in the lower troposphere, related to diabatic processes and momentum forcing of wind. Among the diabatic processes, latent heat is shown to act as the main PV source (reinforcing cyclones), being partly balanced by PV sinks of temperature diffusion and radiative cooling (weakening cyclones). Momentum forcing is shown to have an ambiguous feedback, able to reinforce and weaken cyclones while in certain cases playing an important role in cyclone development. Piecewise PV inversion shows that most cyclones develop due to the combined effect of both baroclinic and diabatic forcing, i.e. due to both PV anomalies. However, the stronger the baroclinic forcing, the less a cyclone is found to develop due to diabatic processes. Several pairs of exemplary cases are used to illustrate the variety of contributions of atmospheric processes to the development of Mediterranean cyclones: (i) cases where both baroclinic and diabatic processes contribute to cyclone development; (ii) cases that mainly developed due to latent-heat release; (iii) cases developing in the wake of the Alps; and (iv) two unusual cases, one where momentum forcing dominates cyclone development and the other presenting a dual-surface pressure centre. Finally, we focus on 10 medicane cases (i.e. tropical-like cyclones). In contrast to their tropical counterparts – but in accordance with most intense Mediterranean cyclones – most medicanes are shown to develop under the influence of both baroclinic and diabatic processes. In discussion of medicane-driving processes, we highlight the need for a physical definition of these systems.

The northern and the eastern Adriatic Sea floods: connecting the extreme sea-levels to cyclone pathways

<p>An objective method for tracking pathways of cyclone centres over Europe was developed and applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis atmospheric data (1979-2014). The method was used to determine trajectories of those Mediterranean cyclones which generated extreme sea levels along the northern and the eastern Adriatic coast during the period from 1979 to 2014. Extreme events were defined as periods during which sea level was above 99.95 percentile value of time series of hourly sea-level data measured at the Venice (northern Adriatic), Split (middle eastern Adriatic) and Dubrovnik (south-eastern Adriatic) tide-gauge stations. The cyclone pathways were tracked backwards from the moment closest to the moment of maximum sea level up to the cyclone origin time, or at most, up to 72 hours prior the occurrence of the sea-level maximum.</p><p>Our results point out that extreme sea levels in Venice normally appear during synoptic situations in which a cyclone centre is located to the south-west and north-west of Venice, i.e., when it can be found over the Gulf of Genoa, or the Alps. On the contrary, extreme sea levels in Dubrovnik are usually associates with cyclone centres above the middle Adriatic, whereas floods in Split seem to appear during both above-described types of situations.</p><p>Occurrence times and intensity of cyclones and extreme sea-levels was further associated with the NAO index. It has been shown that the deepest cyclones and corresponding extreme floods tend to occur during the negative NAO phase.   </p>

A new database for Intense Mediterranean Cyclones

<p>To better assess the future risks associated with Intense Mediterranean Cyclones (IMC) a better understanding of their features, variability, frequency and intensity is required, including a robust detection method. The application of different detection algorithms provides results that are remarkably similar in some aspects but may be very different in others even using the same data. Thus, the selection of a particular method can significantly affect the results. For these reasons it is necessary to use different approaches and datasets to study the sensitivity and robustness of the detection approach. Those approaches often use minima in sea-level pressure (SLP) or extrema in relative vorticity or both to first identify the eye of the cyclone. SLP reflects the atmospheric mass distribution, and is representative of synoptic-scale atmospheric processes. On the other hand, the relative vorticity displays higher variability and is representative of the atmospheric circulation, being able to detect several local extrema (more than one centre), it can reduce uncertainties in the cyclone detection and tracking.</p><p>Therefore, within the framework of the EFIMERA project and to detect and track IMC we use a combination of different methods based on previous studies found in the literature. This new list of detected IMC events, together with the observed and well documented ones, are used here to create a new IMC database to be used for the study of their impacts and risk associated.</p>

Oscillations in deep-open-cells during winter Mediterranean cyclones

Open cloud cells can be described in ideal form as connected clouds that surround spots of isolated clear skies in their centers. This cloud pattern is typically associated with marine stratocumulus (MSc) that form in the oceanic boundary layer. However, it can form in deeper convective clouds as well. Here, we focus on deep-open-cells (with tops reaching up to ~5–7 km) that form in the post-frontal regions of winter Mediterranean cyclones, and examine their properties and evolution. Using a Lagrangian analysis of satellite data, we show that deep-open-cells have a larger equivalent diameter (~58 ± 18 km) and oscillate with a longer periodicity (~3.5 ± 1 h) compared to shallow MSc. A numerical simulation of one Cyprus low event reveals that precipitation-generated convergence and divergence dynamic patterns are the main driver of the open cells’ organization and oscillations. Thus, our findings generalize the mechanism attributed to the behavior of shallow marine cells to deeper convective systems.

How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas)

Mediterranean cyclogenesis is known to be frequently linked to ridge building over the North Atlantic and subsequent anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Europe. But understanding of how this linkage affects the medium-range forecast uncertainty of Mediterranean cyclones is limited, as previous predictability studies have mainly focused on the relatively rare cases of Mediterranean cyclogenesis preceded by upstream extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. This study exploits a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational ensemble forecast with an uncertain potential vorticity (PV) streamer position over the Mediterranean that, 3 d after initialization, resulted in an uncertain development of the Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone (Medicane) Zorbas in September 2018. Later initializations showed substantially lower forecast uncertainties over the Mediterranean. An ad hoc clustering of the ensemble members according to the PV streamer position in the Mediterranean is used to study the upstream evolution of the synoptic to mesoscale forecast uncertainties. Cluster differences show that forecast uncertainties were amplified on the stratospheric side of a jet streak over the North Atlantic during the first day of the ensemble prediction. Subsequently, they propagated downstream and were further amplified within a short-wave perturbation along the wave guide, superimposed onto the large-scale Rossby wave pattern. After 3 d, the uncertainties reached the Mediterranean, where they resulted in a large spread in the position of the PV streamer. These uncertainties further translated into uncertainties in the position and thermal structure of the Mediterranean cyclone. In particular, the eastward displacement of the PV streamer in more than a third of the ensemble members resulted in a very different cyclone scenario. In this scenario, cyclogenesis occurred earlier than in the other members in connection to a pre-existing surface trough over the Levantine Sea. These cyclones did not develop the deep warm core typical of medicanes. It is proposed that the eastward-shifted cyclogenesis resulted in reduced values of low-level equivalent potential temperature in the cyclogenesis area. As a result, latent heating was not intense and deep enough to erode the upper-level PV anomaly and allow the formation of a deep warm core. The westward displacement led to surface cyclones that were too weak, and a medicane formed in only half of the members. The central, i.e. correct, PV streamer position resulted in the most accurate forecasts with a strong medicane in most members. This study is the first that explicitly investigates the impact of PV streamer position uncertainty for medicane development. Overall, results extend current knowledge of the role of upstream uncertainties in the medium-range predictability and unsteady forecast behavior of Mediterranean cyclones including medicanes.