Performance assessment of WRF model in simulating the very severe cyclonic storm “TITLI” in the Bay of Bengal: A case study

Monitoring ocean primary productivity especially Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is important as it contributes to the carbon cycle, global climate change and ocean health study. This study aims to examine the effects of cyclone events on the ocean productivity in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) considering its importance on global climate change. Level 2 SeaWiFS daily data from 2001 to 2010 were used to determine Chl-a concentration and data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to get information and locations of the cyclone events. Variation of Chl-a concentration was determined from the Chl-a concentration maps (pre-, during, and post-cyclone) using several transect lines parallel to the cyclone passages. Results indicated that there is a relationship between the variation of Chl-a concentration and the cyclone events at the BOB but the effect is varied according to the type of cyclone where very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) has higher impact on Chl-a concentration compared to cyclonic storm (CS) and severe cyclonic storm (SCS). In most cases, Chl-a concentration was increased right after the cyclone event and the influence was observed over a wide area surrounding the cyclone passage.Monitoring ocean primary productivity especially Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is important as it contributes to the carbon cycle, global climate change and ocean health study. This study aims to examine the effects of cyclone events on the ocean productivity in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) considering its importance on global climate change. Level 2 SeaWiFS daily data from 2001 to 2010 were used to determine Chl-a concentration and data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to get information and locations of the cyclone events. Variation of Chl-a concentration was determined from the Chl-a concentration maps (pre-, during, and post-cyclone) using several transect lines parallel to the cyclone passages. Results indicated that there is a relationship between the variation of Chl-a concentration and the cyclone events at the BOB but the effect is varied according to the type of cyclone where very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) has higher impact on Chl-a concentration compared to cyclonic storm (CS) and severe cyclonic storm (SCS). In most cases, Chl-a concentration was increased right after the cyclone event and the influence was observed over a wide area surrounding the cyclone passage.Monitoring ocean primary productivity especially Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration is important as it contributes to the carbon cycle, global climate change and ocean health study. This study aims to examine the effects of cyclone events on the ocean productivity in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) considering its importance on global climate change. Level 2 SeaWiFS daily data from 2001 to 2010 were used to determine Chl-a concentration and data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to get information and locations of the cyclone events. Variation of Chl-a concentration was determined from the Chl-a concentration maps (pre-, during, and post-cyclone) using several transect lines parallel to the cyclone passages. Results indicated that there is a relationship between the variation of Chl-a concentration and the cyclone events at the BOB but the effect is varied according to the type of cyclone where very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) has higher impact on Chl-a concentration compared to cyclonic storm (CS) and severe cyclonic storm (SCS). In most cases, Chl-a concentration was increased right after the cyclone event and the influence was observed over a wide area surrounding the cyclone passage.

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Numerical simulation of storm surge associated with severe cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal during 2008-11

MAUSAM ◽

10.54302/mausam.v64i1.666 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 64 (1) ◽

pp. 193-202

Author(s):

S.K. DUBE ◽

JISMY POULOSE ◽

A.D. ADRAO

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Bay Of Bengal ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Eastern Coast ◽

Property Damage ◽

Cyclonic Storm ◽

Recent Developments ◽

Precise Prediction ◽

Orissa Coast ◽

Severe Cyclonic Storm

tc Hkh m".kdfVca/kh; pØokr vkrk gS rc Hkkjr vkSj blds fudVorhZ {ks=ksa esa rwQkuh leqnzh rjaxksa dh vkinkvksa ds dkj.k tku vkSj eky dh Hkkjh gkfu] rVh; <k¡pksa dh {kfr vkSj —f"k dks gkfu igq¡prh gSA uoEcj 1970 esa caxykns’k ¼igys iwohZ ikfdLrku½ esa vk, ,d vR;ar iapaM pØokr dh otg ls yxHkx 3]00]000 yksxksa dh tkus xbZaA uoEcj 1977 esa vkU/kz esa vk, pØokr us Hkkjr ds iwohZ rV dks rgl ugl dj fn;k ftlesa yxHkx 10]000 yksxksa dh tkus xbZaA vDrwcj 1999 esa Hkkjr ds mM+hlk ds rV ij ,d izpaM pØokrh rwQku vk;k ftlls ml {ks= esa laifRr dh vR;kf/kd gkfu gksus ds vfrfjDr 15]000 ls Hkh vf/kd yksxksa dh tkus xbZaA gky gh esa ebZ 2008 esa vk, pØokr uxhZl ls E;kaekj esa yxHk.k 1]40]000 yksxksa dh tkusa xbZa vkSj laifRr dk vR;f/kd ek=k esa uqdlku gqvkA ;s fo’o dh lcls cM+h ekuoh; vkink;sa eq[;r% m".kdfVca/kh; pØokrksa ls lac) gaS o leqnzh rwQkuh rjaxksa ls izR;{k:i ls tqMh gSA vr% ml {ks= esa laf{kIr iwokZuqeku vkSj leqnzh rwQkuh rjaxksa dh iwoZ psrkouh nsus dk izko/kku ml {ks= ds fgr esa gksrk gSA bl 'kks/k i= dk eq[; mÌs’; caxky dh [kkM+h vkSj vjc lkxj esa mBus okyh leqnzh rwQkuh rjaxksa dk iwokZuqeku djus ds fy, gky gh esa fodflr fd, x, ekWMyksa dks izdk’k esa ykuk gSA bl 'kks/k&i= esa o"kZ 2008 ls 2011 ds nkSjku caxky dh [kkM+h esa cus izpaM pØokrksa ls tqM+h leqnzh rjaxksa dk iwokZuqeku [email protected] djus esa fun’kZ ds fu"iknu dk Hkh mYys[k fd;k x;k gSA Storm surge disasters cause heavy loss of life and property, damage to the coastal structures and the losses of agriculture in India and its neighborhood whenever a tropical cyclone approaches. About 3,00,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclone that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated the eastern coast of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than 15000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. More recently the Nargis cyclone of May 2008 killed about 1,40,000 people in Myanmar as well as caused enormous property damage. These and most of the world's greatest human disasters associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. Thus, provision of precise prediction and warning of storm surges is of great interest in the region. The main objective of the present paper is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction model for the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Paper also describes the performance of the model in forecasting/simulating the surges associated with severe cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal during 2008 to 2011.

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Simulation of Intensity, Track and Landfall of Tropical Cyclonic Storm Roanu over the Bay of Bengal Using WRF-ARW Model

The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences ◽

10.3329/dujees.v10i1.56278 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 33-45

Author(s):

Ariful Alam ◽

Shammy Ahmed ◽

Sharmin Rahman ◽

Umme Habiba ◽

Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Bay Of Bengal ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Short Wave ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Radiative Transfer Model ◽

Transfer Model ◽

Microphysics Scheme ◽

Cyclonic Storm ◽

Position Errors ◽

Hourly Data

Almost every year, tropical cyclone forms over the Bay of Bengal in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon which strikes Bangladesh coast and the east coast of India. As the full thermodynamic features of a cyclone is not solved yet, an attempt has been made to simulate the track and landfall of cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal by using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model (version 3.8) was run in a single domain of 20 km horizontal resolution. The model was run using WRF Single-Moment 3- class microphysics scheme, Kain- Fritsch (new Eta) cumulus physics scheme, Yonsei University planetary boundary layer scheme, revised MM5 surface layer physics scheme, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) for long-wave and Dudhia scheme for short-wave scheme. The model was run for 24-h, 48-h, 72-h and 96-h using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) high-resolution Global Final (FNL) Analysis 6-hourly data using initial and lateral boundary conditions. The model simulated landfall position errors are found 53 km, 129 km, 119km and 23 km and time errors are found 02 E, 06 D, 02 E and 00 for 96-h, 72-h, 48-h and 24-h model run respectively (E indicates Earlier and D indicates Delay). The minimum time and position error is found in 24-hrs simulation. The spatial distribution is captured by the model is almost appropriate but the computational station rainfall is found less than that of observed rainfall. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 10(1), 2021, P 33-45

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The Efficacy of the WRF-ARW Model in the Genesis and Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Fani over the Bay of Bengal

Journal of Engineering Science ◽

10.3329/jes.v12i3.57482 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 85-100

Author(s):

Md Shakil Hossain ◽

Md Abdus Samad ◽

SM Arif Hossen ◽

SM Quamrul Hassan ◽

MAK Malliak

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Bay Of Bengal ◽

Lead Time ◽

Wrf Model ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Outcome Analysis ◽

Time Model ◽

Cyclonic Storm ◽

Arw Model ◽

Global Data Assimilation System

An attempt has been carried out to assess the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the genesis and intensification events of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Fani (26 April – 04 May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has been conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) FNL (final) data (0.250 × 0.250). According to the model simulated outcome analysis, the model is capable of predicting the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustainable Wind Speed (MSWS) pattern reasonably well, despite some deviations. The model has forecasted the Lowest Central Pressure (LCP) of 919 hPa and the MSWS of 70 ms-1 based on 0000 UTC of 26 April. Except for the model run based on 0000 UTC of 26 April, the simulated values of LCP are relatively higher than the observations. According to the statistical analysis, MSLP and MSWS at 850 hPa level demonstrate a significantly greater influence on Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation and intensification process than any other parameters. The model can predict the intensity features well enough, despite some uncertainty regarding the proper lead time of the model run. Reduced lead time model run, particularly 24 to 48 hr, can be chosen to forecast the genesis and intensification events of TC with minimum uncertainty. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 85-100

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