Numerical simulation of storm surge associated with severe cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal during 2008-11

tc Hkh m".kdfVca/kh; pØokr vkrk gS rc Hkkjr vkSj blds fudVorhZ {ks=ksa esa rwQkuh leqnzh rjaxksa dh vkinkvksa ds dkj.k tku vkSj eky dh Hkkjh gkfu] rVh; <k¡pksa dh {kfr vkSj —f"k dks gkfu igq¡prh gSA uoEcj 1970 esa caxykns’k ¼igys iwohZ ikfdLrku½ esa vk, ,d vR;ar iapaM pØokr dh otg ls yxHkx 3]00]000 yksxksa dh tkus xbZaA uoEcj 1977 esa vkU/kz esa vk, pØokr us Hkkjr ds iwohZ rV dks rgl ugl dj fn;k ftlesa yxHkx 10]000 yksxksa dh tkus xbZaA vDrwcj 1999 esa Hkkjr ds mM+hlk ds rV ij ,d izpaM pØokrh rwQku vk;k ftlls ml {ks= esa laifRr dh vR;kf/kd gkfu gksus ds vfrfjDr 15]000 ls Hkh vf/kd yksxksa dh tkus xbZaA gky gh esa ebZ 2008 esa vk, pØokr uxhZl ls E;kaekj esa yxHk.k 1]40]000 yksxksa dh tkusa xbZa vkSj laifRr dk vR;f/kd ek=k esa uqdlku gqvkA ;s fo’o dh lcls cM+h ekuoh; vkink;sa eq[;r% m".kdfVca/kh; pØokrksa ls lac) gaS o leqnzh rwQkuh rjaxksa ls izR;{k:i ls tqMh gSA vr% ml {ks= esa laf{kIr iwokZuqeku vkSj leqnzh rwQkuh rjaxksa dh iwoZ psrkouh nsus dk izko/kku ml {ks= ds fgr esa gksrk gSA bl 'kks/k i= dk eq[; mÌs’; caxky dh [kkM+h vkSj vjc lkxj esa mBus okyh leqnzh rwQkuh rjaxksa dk iwokZuqeku djus ds fy, gky gh esa fodflr fd, x, ekWMyksa dks izdk’k esa ykuk gSA bl 'kks/k&i= esa o"kZ 2008 ls 2011 ds nkSjku caxky dh [kkM+h esa cus izpaM pØokrksa ls tqM+h leqnzh rjaxksa dk iwokZuqeku [email protected] djus esa fun’kZ ds fu"iknu dk Hkh mYys[k fd;k x;k gSA Storm surge disasters cause heavy loss of life and property, damage to the coastal structures and the losses of agriculture in India and its neighborhood whenever a tropical cyclone approaches. About 3,00,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclone that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated the eastern coast of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than 15000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. More recently the Nargis cyclone of May 2008 killed about 1,40,000 people in Myanmar as well as caused enormous property damage. These and most of the world's greatest human disasters associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. Thus, provision of precise prediction and warning of storm surges is of great interest in the region. The main objective of the present paper is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction model for the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Paper also describes the performance of the model in forecasting/simulating the surges associated with severe cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal during 2008 to 2011.

An indigenous state-of-the-art High Wind Speed Recording (HWSR) system for coastal meteorological observatories

The continuous and accurate monitoring of wind speed and direction is of utmost importance to weatherman, particularly during the cyclonic storms. Wind monitoring also helps the meteorologists in tracking the cyclone accurately and estimating their devastating potential. One major disadvantage of all the existing wind monitoring and storing systems is their huge consumption of power, and hence are not suitable during cyclonic storms due to mains power supply failure. So an attempt has been made by the authors to design and develop a low cost, low power, more accurate and maintenance free High Wind Speed Recording (HWSR) System for the coastal meteorological observatories along the East and West Coasts of India. One such system after successful field trials have been installed at Meteorological Office, Puri in the Orissa coast, and 19 more stations are proposed along East and West Coasts of India. The system meets the operational accuracy requirements and vector averaging of wind data as recommended by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO, 1992). The system design aspects and scope for expansion have been presented in this paper.

MM5 simulation of the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone : Impact of bogus vortex on track and intensity prediction

lkj & bl v/;;u esa 29 vDrwcj] 1999 dks mM+hlk ds rV ij vk, egkpØokr ds izfr:i.k ds fy, ,u- lh- ,- vkj@ih- ,l- ;w- ,e- ,e- 5 eslksLdsy fun’kZ ¼xzsy bR;kfn 1995½ dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gsA bl fun’kZ esa pØokr dh izkjafHkd voLFkk vkSj mldh ifjlhekvksa dh voLFkkvksa ds :i esa jk"Vªh; e/;&vof/k ekSle iwokZuqeku dsUnz Vh- 80 ds izpkyukRed fo’ys"k.kksa dk iz;ksx fd;k x;k gS vkSj rwQku dh vof/k esa 3 fnu rd dk iwokZuqeku rS;kj djus ds fy, bl fun’kZ dks 72 ?kaVs dh vof/k ds fy, lekdfyr fd;k x;k gSA bl v/;;u dk mn~ns’; pØokr ds ekxZ ij dfYir Hkzfey ds izHkko dk ewY;kadu djuk vkSj pØokr dh rhozrk dk iwokZuqeku yxkuk gSA In this study NCAR/PSU MM5 mesoscale model (Grell et al. 1995) is used to simulate the super cyclone that struck the Orissa coast on 29th October 1999. The model makes use of the operational NCMRWF T 80 analysis as initial and boundary conditions and is integrated up to 72 hr for producing 3-day forecast of the storm. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of bogus vortex on track and intensity prediction.

Impact of physical parameterization schemes on the numerical simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999)

& 29 vDrwcj] 1999 dks mM+hlk esa vk, egkpØokr dks izfr:fir djus ds fy, isuflyosfu;k LVsV ;wfuoflZVh ds jk"Vªh; ok;qeaMyh; vuqla/kku dsUnz ds eslksLdsy ekWMy ¼,e- ,e- 5½ ds xSj&nzoLFkSfrd :ikarj dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA pØokr ds ekxZ vkSj mlds fodkl ij dSu&fÝ’k] csV~l&feyj] xzsy vkSj ,aFksl&dqvks uked pkj diklh izkpyhdj.k Ldheksa rFkk gk¡x&iSu vkSj cdZ FkkWEilu uked nks xzgh; ifjlhek Lrj izkpyhdj.k ¼ih- ch- ,y-½ Ldheks ds izHkko dk v/;;u djus ds fy, iz;ksx fd, x, gSA pØokr dh xfr] U;wure nkc dk fodkl] o"kkZ dk iSVuZ vkSj rkieku ds m/okZ/kj ØkWl lsD’ku ds laca/k esa laosnu’khyrk dh tk¡p dh xbZ gSA ,aFksl&dqvks Ldhe dks NksM+dj vU; lHkh izfr:i.k vfr {kh.k ifjlapj.k ls vfr izpaM pØokrh; rwQku fodflr djus esa l{ke gSaA U;wure dsUnzh; nkc dk cuuk fofHkUu diklh Ldheksa esa vf/kd laosnu’khyrk n’kkZrk gS ftlesa lekdyu vof/k ds 4 fnuksa ds nkSjku dSu&fÝ’k Ldhe ls 966 gS- ik- vkSj ,aFksl&dqvks Ldhe ls 1004 gS- ik- jghA izfr:fir pØokr dh xfr ij fofHkUu diklh izkpyhdj.k Ldheksa dk egRoiw.kZ izHkko jgk gSA blls izkIr gq, ifj.kkeksa ls irk pyk gS fd dSu&fÝ’k vkSj gk¡x&iSu dh feyh tqyh Ldheksa ls pØokr ds U;wure dsUnzh; nkc dk fodkl vkSj iouksa dh {kSfrt ,oa m/okZ/kj lajpukvksa] rkieku folaxfr;ksa vkSj jsucSaM y{k.kksa dks vPNh rjg iznf’kZr fd;k tk ldrk gSA Non-hydrostatic version of Pennsylvania State University- National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (MM5) is used to simulate the super cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October, 1999. Experiments are carried out with four cumulus parameterization schemes namely; Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller, Grell and Anthes-Kuo and two planetary boundary layer parameterization (PBL) schemes namely; Hong-Pan and Burk-Thompson to study their impact on the movement and development of the cyclone. The sensitivity is examined in terms of movement, evolution of minimum pressure, rainfall pattern and vertical cross section of temperature. All the simulations are able to develop the very severe cyclonic storm from very weak circulation except with Anthes-Kuo scheme. The evolution of the minimum central pressure shows much sensitivity among the different cumulus schemes with Kain-Fritsch producing 966 hPa while Anthes-Kuo 1004 hPa during the 4 days of the integration period. Different cumulus parameterization schemes show significant impact on the simulated movement of the cyclone. The results reveal that the evolution of minimum central pressure and horizontal as well as vertical structures of winds, temperature anomalies and rainband characteristic to a cyclone are well brought out by the combination of Kain-Fritsch and Hong-Pan schemes.

Numerical experiments for improvement in mesoscale simulation of Orissa super cyclone

& 29 vDrwcj] 1999 dks mM+hlk ds rV ij vk;k egkpØokr mM+hlk ds vc rd ds bfrgkl dk lcls izpaM rwQku Fkk ftldh 250 fd-eh- izfr ?kaVk dh rhoz xfr okyh iouksa us jkT; ds 12 rVh; ftyksa dks rgl&ugl dj MkykA rwQku ds LFky ls Vdjkus ds i'pkr~ 36 ?kaVs ls Hkh vf/kd le; rd iouksa dh izpaMrk cuh jghA bl rwQku ls tku eky dk dkQh uqdlku gqvkA yxHkx 10]000 yksxksa dh tkusa xbZA bl v/;;u esa rwQku ds eslksLdsy izfr:Ik dks csgrj cukus ds fy, dqN egRoiw.kZ igyqvksa dh tk¡p gsrq O;kid la[;kRed iz;ksx fd, x, gSaA bu igyqvksa esa xSj nzoLFkSfrd xfrd] fun’kZ {kSfrt foHksnu vkSj egRoiw.kZ izR;{k izfØ;kvksa ds izkpyhdj.k 'kkfey gSaA rwQku dk 5 fnolh; izfr:Ik ¼123 ?kaVksa ds yxkrkj lekdyu½ rS;kj djus ds fy, eslksLdsy fun’kZ ,e- ,e- 5 dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA blesa le:ih foHksnu ¼30 fd-eh-½ vkSj le:ih le; J`a[kyk ds lkFk nzoLFkSfrd ¼,p-,l-½ rFkk xSj nzoLFkSfrd ¼,u- ,l-½ xfrdksa ds lg;ksx ls rwQku ds izfr:i esa xSj nzoLFkSfrdrk ds izHkko dh tk¡p dh xbZ gSA bl fof/k ls rwQku vkSj fo’ks"k :Ik ls bldh rhozrk dk xSj nzoLFkSfrd xfrdksa ds lkFk lgh izfr:i.k gksrk gSA xSj nzoLFkSfrd xfrdksa ds lkFk 90 fd-eh-] 60 fd-eh- vkSj 30 fd-eh- ds foHksnuksa ij rwQku dk izfr:i.k djrs gq, fun’kZ dh laof/kZr {kSfrt foHksnu dh egRrk dh tk¡p dh xbZ gS vkSj rwQku ds izfr:i.k esa bldk izR;{k izHkko ns[kk x;k gSA egRoiw.kZ izR;{k izfØ;k okys diklh laogu xzgh; ifjlhek Lrj ¼ih- ch- ,y-½ vkSj fofdj.k gsrq fun’kZ esa miyC/k izkpyhÑr ;kstukvksa ds csgrj lEHkkO; leUo; dk irk yxkus ds fy, la[;kRed iz;ksx Hkh fd, x,A lh- lh- ,e- 2 fofdj.k izkpyhÑr ;kstuk lesr xzsy diklh laogu vkSj gk¡x&isu ih- ch- ,y- ;kstuk ds lkFk leUo;u okyh ;kstuk ds vU; ijhf{kr ;kstukvksa dh rqyuk esa lcls csgrj ifj.kkeksa dk irk pyk gSA The super cyclone that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999 was the most intense storm in the history of Orissa with 12 coastal districts of the state were battered by winds reaching 250 kmph. The fury of winds continued for more than 36 hours after landfall of the storm. The storm caused huge damage to properties and nearly 10,000 people lost their lives. In the present study, extensive numerical experiments are conducted to investigate some important aspects that may lead to the improvement in mesoscale simulation of the storm. The aspects that are addressed here include non-hydrostatic dynamics, model horizontal resolution and parameterization of important physical processes. The mesoscale model MM5 is used to produce 5-day simulation of the storm. The influence of non-hydrostaticity is investigated by simulating the storm with hydrostatic (HS) and non-hydrostatic (NS) dynamics at same resolution (30 km) and with same time step. The storm, in particular its intensity is better simulated with non-hydrostatic dynamics. The importance of increasing model horizontal resolution is investigated by simulating the storm at 90 km, 60 km and 30 km resolutions with non-hydrostatic dynamics and found to have perceptible impact in simulation of the storm. Numerical experiments also are conducted to find the best possible combination of the parameterization schemes available in the model for the important physical processes cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and radiation. The combination of Grell cumulus convection and Hong-Pan PBL scheme along with CCM2 radiation parameterization scheme is found to provide the best result compared to the other schemes tested.

A Novel Method to Monitor Electricity Restoration in Orissa Affected by Cyclone Fani using Image Processing with VIIRS DNB Data

Due to advances in space technology, certain satellite sensors have unique power of capturing data and also generate special kind of observations. The Day and Night Visible Bands (DNB) of VIIRS Sensor mounted on Suomi NPP Satellite provide useful information in real-time monitoring of restoration of electrification after the trigger of a tropical cyclone. Since the destruction ca used by a tropical cyclone is severe, therefore, both restoration and its monitoring play a vital role for law enforcement agencies. This paper presents a novel method to monitor electricity restoration spatially using image processing with VIIRS DNB data. The proposed method is experimented with the cyclone Fani hit Orissa coast during April-May 2019. To conclude, the work accurately determines the spatial analysis of electrification restoration after a tropical cyclone landfall is occurred