An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 ◽  
pp. 199-209
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
New Evidence

scholarly journals Formulating and Estimating of Dynamic Nonlinear Model of Korea’s Bilateral Trade Balance

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Heonyong Jung
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Integration Test

This paper formulates and estimates the dynamic nonlinear trade model for Korea. We use monthly time series data for the period from 2000 to 2017. We employ EGARCH (1,1)-GED model which allows the positive and negative shocks to have asymmetric influences on volatility. The Johansen co-integration test is applied and finds the long run relationship among oil price, exchange rate and trade balance does exist. With respect to Indonesia as one of oil exporting countries, we find that an increase in oil prices leads to a declined trade balance as imports rise more than exports. Appreciation in IDR also leads to a declined trade balance as exports fall more than imports. For Korea as one of oil importing countries, an increase in oil prices leads to an improved trade balance as exports rise more than imports. Appreciation in KRW leads to a declined trade balance as exports fall more than imports. Oil price volatility reduces trade balance both in Indonesia and Korea. Oil price has negative effects on Indonesia’s trade balance and positive effects on Korea’s trade balance. Indonesian and Korean currency appreciation against US dollar have a negative impact on trade balance in Indonesia and Korea respectively. This information will contribute to Indonesian and Korean policy makers in making policies for their trade.

Bilateral Trade Elasticities Sweden Versus Her Major Trading Partners

2005 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulnasser Hatemi-J ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Trade Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Trading Partners

This study explores the long-run bilateral trade elasticities between Sweden and its six major trading partners for the period 1960-1999. Tests for unit roots and cointegration in a panel perspective are conducted. The estimated cross sectional trade elasticities show that trade is highly sensitive to changes in income but less sensitive to real exchange rate fluctuations. The bilateral trade elasticities disclose that the MarshallLerner condition is not satisfied (except for Germany) and real depreciation of the Swedish currency has less favorable impact on the trade balance. The policy implications of our findings are also discussed.

THE J-CURVE AND KOREA’S BILATERAL TRADE: THE ROLE OF CRUDE OIL PRICES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
JIANGQIN XU ◽  
JUNGHO BAEK
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Validity Evidence ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Rate Asymmetry ◽  
J Curve

Although oil prices likely influence the trade balance via macroeconomy channels (i.e. exchange rates and income), less widely recognized is the possibility of such an effect in investigating the hypothesis of a J-Curve. Thus, the primary thrust of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil prices on the J-Curve using bilateral trade data between Korea and her 14 largest partners. We uncover that the price of crude oil is indeed important in affecting the Korean trade balance and thus further validity evidence of the J-Curve. We further discover that incorporating exchange rate asymmetry provides more evidence supporting the J-Curve in the Korean trade balance.

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURVA J PADA NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN ENAM NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Anggraeni Tri Hapsari ◽  
Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Whether a J curve phenomenon exists or not on the balance of trade has been an interest for empirical investigation in international economics. The phenomenon is typically associated with the response of the balance of trade to the exchange rate dynamics. Since a country has different trade features with different trading partners, the trade balances adjustment to the exchange rate dynamics should be seen as a head to head phenomenon. This paper investigates the effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and its six major trading partners, namely Japan, China, Singapore, United States, South Korea and India on a quarterly basis over the period 1995.1 to 2013.4. The short run and the long run effect of the REER on the balance of trade is expected to be captured using error correction model (ECM) and vector error correction model (VECM). Subsequently, impulse response function is used to trace out the behavior of the bilateral trade balance in response to the REER shock whereas forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decay the effect of innovation variables in the system. The result indicates that in the long run a J curve phenomenon appears on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and Japan, China, Singapore as well as South Korea. In the short run, a J curve phenomenon is seen on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and China as well as Singapore. This confirms that a J curve is a head to head phenomenon that has correlation with the trade features. Thus, the correction mechanism to the trade balance in response to the exchange rate shock (i.e. exchange rate market intervention) should count trade features as a consideration

Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia and Her Trading Partners

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Safet Kurtovic ◽  
Blerim Halili ◽  
Nehat Maxhuni
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Demand Function ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Economies In Transition ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Elasticity ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

AbstractAlmost all countries face the problems of trade balance, although they are more inherent in developing countries and economies in transition. A majority of economists adhere to a common opinion that real depreciation may lead to an improvement of trade balance. That said, countries encountering trade balance issues use real exchange rate depreciation in order to improve trade balance. In fact, this research refers to the assessment of bilateral elasticity effect of real exchange rate depreciation and the income on export and import demand function of Serbia and its nine leading partners. 2004Q1-2015Q4 data and ARDL approach have been used in this research. The results obtained show the presence of the J-curve in cases of Germany, Austria and Croatia. On the other hand, we examined if the Marshall-Lerner condition was fulfilled in the case of bilateral trade with Austria. Finally, we found that the elasticity of income has a greater effect on the export and import demand function, in relation to the elasticity of the exchange rate.

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