STRUCTURAL PARADIGM OF INNOVATIVE AND INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIP

The article is focused on finding a new and modification of the existing paradigms of the innovative and investment partnership formation. The article studies the perspective key members of innovative partnership, their roles and possible cooperation effects. The attention is focused on the choice of directions of the innovative process realization depending upon the comparative assessment of approaches and the innovation commercialization expenses. The author outlines the direct and indirect form of the innovative partnership: «enterprise — university» and «enterprise — innovative mediator — university». The analysis of the profit-making channels in each chosen type of cooperation is provided. The globalization and capital concentration platforms preceding the integration partnership agreements are outlined and analyzed. To build up a separate adaptive paradigm of the innovative partnership the factors of the inner and outer environment forming the barriers for the realization of successful innovation partnership models are analyzed. It was found that one more factor to be considered when choosing the forms of innovative partnership between the parties concerned is the payback from the innovation commercialization, Its amount will be impacted by the objective factors of the currency depreciation in time, level of the sci-tech progress development, facilitation of the state policy, selected priorities of the national strategies, etc. Concerning the subjective factors, they fall within the variety of behavioral characteristics of an individual. It is stated that the formation of the innovative partnership is closely connected with the regional peculiarity of the location of enterprises, institutions and organizations. It is suggested to outline the innovative export-oriented and innovative import-dependent regions of the country. This feature will cover the possibilities of acquisition of innovations, knowledge and experience, and resources for their realization from the inner and outer markets. One of the factors of the commercial success achievement with the chosen form of the innovative partnership is the Blue Ocean Strategy which will allow studying the market more in detail and find the market niches in need of such new integrative formations. The incorporation of spin-off and spin-out companies is outlined as an efficient direction of the innovative partnership grounds realization. The article was prepared with the application of the following methods: expert appraisal, analysis and synthesis, economic experiment and scientific abstraction as well as graphic and logical methods. Keywords: innovative partnership, innovative process, innovation, business model of the innovative partnership, innovative mediator, innovation commercialization. JEL Classification L26 Formulas: 0; fig.: 3; tabl.: 2; bibl.: 12.

Uncovered Interest Parity and Expected Depreciation in a Dollarized Cambodian Economy

This paper tests the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) for Cambodian economy using the Generalized Methods of Moment (GMM). GMM method is used to address the weak result of simple OLS method, including the problems of endoneneity, serial correlation, heteroskedasticity. The result showed that, during the period of exchange rate stability, UIP is not valid even the country is a very highly dollarized economy and people can save in both local currency and USD in domestic banks. The UIP coefficient is negative and significant for three-month and six-month interest rates. The negative coefficient suggests that the monetary policy that tries to decrease interest rate (increase) may face the risk of currency depreciation (appreciation). If local currency depreciation is the driving force of dollarization, reducing local interest rate will encourage more dollarization in the economy.

Angola mounting debt burden raises future default risk

Significance The IMF's willingness to turn a blind eye may enable Angola to retain access to concessional finance over the next 18 months; however, Luanda needs a plan to address deferred principal payments and recapitalise a key escrow account in 2023. Impacts The IMF's latest funding review will unlock USD500mn from the World Bank and USD200mn from the African Development Bank. Persistent IMF pressure for greater central bank autonomy will help curb inflation, which recently reached 25%, pending new legislation. Domestic banks remain vulnerable to economic shocks amid a lengthy recession, persistent high inflation and continued currency depreciation.

Humanitarian challenges and the targeting of civilian infrastructure in the Yemen war

Many modern conflicts, from Iraq to Yemen, have emerged as brutal wars in which state and non-state actors directly and indirectly target a wide array of civilian infrastructures, including water, energy and food systems. Similar to many twentieth-century wars, a common feature of the wars in the Middle East and North Africa in the twenty-first century has been the ‘civilianization’ of war, as civilian casualties far outnumbered battlefield deaths. We explore the targeting of civilian infrastructures in the Yemeni war (2011–2019) to explicate the connections between conflict, hunger and disease. We draw upon interviews with UN and humanitarian organizations, an original database tracking civilian infrastructure destruction, and a variety of print sources to document the extent and spatial distribution of the targeting of water, energy, agricultural and health systems in Yemen. We elucidate how the conduct of the Yemeni war has undermined human security and livelihoods and has created ethical, logistical and organizational challenges for humanitarian organizations and for advancing peacebuilding efforts. We find that after the 2011 popular uprising, some non-state actors targeted the energy sector; however, the scope and intensity of wartime targeting of civilian objects, particularly those associated with agriculture, fisheries and health, increased significantly once the Saudi-led coalition entered the war in 2015. Loss of livelihoods, internal displacement, currency depreciation, and blockades and sieges further intensified the wartime spread of hunger and disease. The targeting of civilian infrastructures significantly hinders peacebuilding efforts to restore basic services, rebuild livelihoods and strengthen governance mechanisms.

Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, gold and silver in Latin America’s stock market

Purpose - This essay aims to analyze whether gold (Gold Bullion: Zurich) and silver (Silver Paris Spot E/KG) will be a safe haven for diversifying portfolios in Latin America's stock markets.Design/methodology/approach - The analyzed data are the price indexes of the stock markets of Argentina (SP Merval), Brazil (Ibovespa), Chile (SP/CLX IGPA), Peru (SP/BVL General IGBL), Mexico (IPC), USA (Dow Jones), gold (Gold Bullion: Zurich), and silver (Silver Paris Spot E/KG), from December 31, 2019 to September 2, 2020. To answer the research question we used Gregory and Hansen’s methodology (1996), and the VAR Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests model.Findings - The results indicate that the markets have very significant integrations and causalities, that is, gold and silver do not function as safe havens for the diversification of portfolios in Latin American stock markets.Research limitations/implications - While the present investigation used general indices, in future studies sectoral indices can be used, as well as intraday data to have more robust evidence regarding the diversification of portfolios in these regional markets.Originality/value - This investigation differs from previous studies because it focuses on the rebalancing of portfolios through the estimation of integration models and shocks between gold and silver and the Latin American markets. This differs from the previous ones, which analyzed the average dependencies between gold and financial market movements, and between gold and currency depreciation.

A Predictive Effect of Exchange Rates on Value-Added Free Trade

The study investigates a predictive exchange rate effect on value-added trade flows on global value chains. We theoretically review the role of exchange rates on international trade based on insular, open, and global value chained economies. This paper empirically confirms a retro forecasting rule of the exchange rate on exports and trade balance using the value-added data for the period from 1995 to 2015. The first result is that real effective exchange rates have predictive elasticity information for the value-added trade flows. The second is that exchange rates have two practical effects on trade flows. The value-added exchange rate hurts the value-added trade balance due to increased intermediate trades, but the exchange rate has a positive effect on the gross trade balance. We would expect that value-added exports with trade balance can be improved in all sample countries when the value-added exchange rate is increasing. The main contribution is further evidence on distinguishing the currency depreciation on the value-added trade from the depreciation on the gross trade to achieve higher growth.

Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach

Applying an asymmetric model, the study reported no evidence of J-curve phenomenon in case of India. In the short-run currency appreciation deteriorates the trade balance and currency depreciation improves it. In the long-run, again the similar response is observed, however, only the impact of currency depreciation is statistically significant. Increase in domestic demand deteriorates the trade balance by a greater magnitude than improvement is observed due to the decline in domestic demand conditions. Finally, foreign demand hike improves the trade balance relatively by a higher magnitude; however, the impact of a foreign demand decline is statistically insignificant. JEL Codes: F4, F41, F42

EFFECTS OF SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON DIASPORA REMITTANCES IN KENYA FOR THE PERIOD 1980 TO 2016

This study investigated the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on diaspora remittances in Kenya. Earlier studies for Kenya on diaspora remittances have focused mainly on the importance of foreign remittances on economic growth and stock market performance with less focus on macroeconomic variables that drives the remittances. In particular, the study determined the effect of economic growth, interest rates, and openness of the economy, interest rates differential and exchange rates on diaspora remittances in Kenya for the period 1980 – 2016 based on quarterly data. The study found that currency depreciation increases diaspora remittances. Similarly, economic growth, financail sector development and openness of the economy were shown to increase diaspora remittances. Based on the findings, the study recommends the need for effective application of prudent macroeconomic policies to attract more diaspora remittances inflows. In addition, there is need to adopt policies geared towards financial sector development such as the policies on formalization of the informal financial services, leveraging on the technology for financial sector development. Lastly, establishing more economic ties beyond trade with other economies to address issues on the taxation and other charges on the remitting funds from abroad would go a long way in promoting diaspora remittances inflows.

Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets

In this study, we examine how public and private debt buildup is related to currency depreciation pressure. Our empirical analysis of a panel dataset of 59 advanced and emerging markets reveals that both private and public debt exacerbate currency vulnerability. However, the evidence of a significant effect on currency depreciation pressure is more robust and consistent for private debt than public debt. Furthermore, we find that excessive private debt buildup can be particularly harmful in emerging markets. In addition, our evidence suggests that greater dependence on external financing exacerbates the impact of debt buildup on currency stress. Overall, the evidence highlights the importance of a comprehensive debt surveillance framework which monitors both public and private debt buildup, especially in emerging markets.