scholarly journals SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF CURRENCY DEPRECIATION ON THE BILATERAL TRADE BALANCE BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND HER MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS

2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHSEN BAHMANI-OSKOOEE ◽  
JEHANZEB CHEEMA
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURVA J PADA NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN ENAM NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Anggraeni Tri Hapsari ◽  
Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Whether a J curve phenomenon exists or not on the balance of trade has been an interest for empirical investigation in international economics. The phenomenon is typically associated with the response of the balance of trade to the exchange rate dynamics. Since a country has different trade features with different trading partners, the trade balances adjustment to the exchange rate dynamics should be seen as a head to head phenomenon. This paper investigates the effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and its six major trading partners, namely Japan, China, Singapore, United States, South Korea and India on a quarterly basis over the period 1995.1 to 2013.4. The short run and the long run effect of the REER on the balance of trade is expected to be captured using error correction model (ECM) and vector error correction model (VECM). Subsequently, impulse response function is used to trace out the behavior of the bilateral trade balance in response to the REER shock whereas forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decay the effect of innovation variables in the system. The result indicates that in the long run a J curve phenomenon appears on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and Japan, China, Singapore as well as South Korea. In the short run, a J curve phenomenon is seen on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and China as well as Singapore. This confirms that a J curve is a head to head phenomenon that has correlation with the trade features. Thus, the correction mechanism to the trade balance in response to the exchange rate shock (i.e. exchange rate market intervention) should count trade features as a consideration

scholarly journals Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 20160067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Javed Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Muzammil
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Trade Partners

In investigating the short run and the long run impact of currency depreciation on Pakistan’s trade balance, previous studies have either relied on using bilateral trade data between Pakistan and her trade partners or between Pakistan and the rest of the world and have found not much support for successful depreciation. Suspecting that these studies may suffer from aggregation bias, in this paper we use disaggregated trade data at commodity level from 77 industries that trade between Pakistan and EU. While we find short-run significant effects in 22 industries, these effects do not last into the long run in most industries. Most of the affected industries are found to be small, as measured by their trade shares.

The US-China trade war with increasing trade policy uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-94
Author(s):  
Serdar Ongan ◽  
Ismet Gocer
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Trade Policy Uncertainty

Purpose This study aims to examine the impacts of changing US trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU Index) on US bilateral trade balance with China from a nonlinear methodology perspective. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied. This model decomposes the TPU Index series into its increases (TPU+) and decreases (TPU−) and creates two new TPU Index series. Findings Empirical findings indicate that increases in the TPU Index improve the US bilateral trade balance only in the short-run (no long-run impact). However, decreases in the TPU Index worsen the US trade balance in the short run but improve it in the long run. Apart from these effects detected on US–China bilateral trade balances, this empirical study draws the conclusion that changing trade policy uncertainty plays a significant determining role for bilateral trade volumes. Originality/value Decomposed TPU index with the nonlinear ARDL model enables us to examine the separate impacts of the changes in TPU+ and TPU− indexes on US bilateral trade balance with China. Therefore, this model may discover potentially concealed-hidden true impacts of TPU index on US bilateral trade balance with this country.

Bilateral Trade Elasticities Sweden Versus Her Major Trading Partners

2005 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulnasser Hatemi-J ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Trade Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Trading Partners

This study explores the long-run bilateral trade elasticities between Sweden and its six major trading partners for the period 1960-1999. Tests for unit roots and cointegration in a panel perspective are conducted. The estimated cross sectional trade elasticities show that trade is highly sensitive to changes in income but less sensitive to real exchange rate fluctuations. The bilateral trade elasticities disclose that the MarshallLerner condition is not satisfied (except for Germany) and real depreciation of the Swedish currency has less favorable impact on the trade balance. The policy implications of our findings are also discussed.

Turkish-German Commodity Trade and Asymmetric J-Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-129
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Huseyin Karamelikli
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Turkish Lira

We consider the short-run and the long-run effects of the real Turkish Lira-Euro rate on the trade balance of each of the 64 industries that trade between Turkey and Germany. We find relatively more significant effects by estimating a nonlinear ARDL model for each industry. Indeed, the approach of separating currency depreciation from appreciation identified the five largest Turkish industries that engage in more than 50 % of the trade between these two countries and that benefitted from Turkish Lira depreciation against the Euro.

Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-88
Author(s):  
Sajad Ahmad Bhat ◽  
Javed Ahmad Bhat
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Similar Response ◽  
Foreign Demand ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Impact

Applying an asymmetric model, the study reported no evidence of J-curve phenomenon in case of India. In the short-run currency appreciation deteriorates the trade balance and currency depreciation improves it. In the long-run, again the similar response is observed, however, only the impact of currency depreciation is statistically significant. Increase in domestic demand deteriorates the trade balance by a greater magnitude than improvement is observed due to the decline in domestic demand conditions. Finally, foreign demand hike improves the trade balance relatively by a higher magnitude; however, the impact of a foreign demand decline is statistically insignificant. JEL Codes: F4, F41, F42

scholarly journals Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Turkish Trade Balance

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huseyin Karamelikli
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run

<p>This study empirically analyses bilateral trade of Turkey with her main trade partners using monthly time series data over the period of 2000 to 2015. J-curve theory and short-run dynamics of bilateral trade is tested by linear ARDL and Non-linear ARDL approaches. The empirical results indicate that there is no J-curve effect during short-run for United States and for France; it symmetrically exists to Germany and asymmetrically to United Kingdom. Also long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance has mixed results. Asymmetric long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for United States exists where it is symmetrically most appropriate for Germany. In the other hand this study failed to verify any long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for France and for United Kingdom.</p>

The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 20170055
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Hanafiah Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Previous studies that tested the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade balances assumed that the effects are symmetric. The more recent research direction has now changed to investigating the possibility of asymmetric effects. In this paper, we assess the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balances of Singapore with her 11 partners. By applying the nonlinear ARDL approach, which separates appreciations from depreciations, we find that exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects in most models. The short-run effects, however, lasted into the long run in a few models. In the long run, while depreciation improves Singapore’s trade balance with the U.S., it hurts it with Malaysia and China. These three partners account for almost 50 % of Singapore’s trade.

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