Social-ecological modelling of the spatial distribution of dengue fever and its temporal dynamics in Guayaquil, Ecuador for climate change adaption

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Jácome ◽  
Paulina Vilela ◽  
ChangKyoo Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
Social Ecological

scholarly journals Periodic synchronization of dengue epidemics in Thailand: the roles played by temperature and immunity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardo García-Carreras ◽  
Bingyi Yang ◽  
Mary K Grabowski ◽  
Lawrence W Sheppard ◽  
Angkana T Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Large Impact ◽  
Haemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Disease Patterns ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Dengue Epidemics ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, the largest impacts of climate change on dengue might be in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last thirty years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronization events. We show that patterns in synchrony of dengue are consistent with those observed in temperature. Applying a temperature-driven dengue model, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed multiannual dynamics and patterns in synchrony. While multiannual oscillations are readily produced by immunity in absence of multiannual timescales in temperature, synchrony in temperature can synchronise dengue dynamics in different locations. However, at higher mean temperatures and lower seasonal variation, immune dynamics become more predominant, and dengue dynamics become more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise.

North Atlantic Oscillation; a Climatic Indicator to Predict Hydropower Availability in Scandinavia

2002 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 415-424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cintia B. Uvo ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
The World ◽  
Hydropower Production ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Climate variability and climate change are of great concern to economists and energy producers as well as environmentalists as both affect the precipitation and temperature in many regions of the world. Among those affected by climate variability is the Scandinavian Peninsula. Particularly, its winter precipitation and temperature are affected by the variations of the so-called North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The objective of this paper is to analyze the spatial distribution of the influence of NAO over Scandinavia. This analysis is a first step to establishing a predictive model, driven by a climatic indicator such as NAO, for the available water resources of different regions in Scandinavia. Such a tool would be valuable for predicting potential of hydropower production one or more seasons in advance.

scholarly journals Climate change alters temporal dynamics of alpine soil microbial functioning and biogeochemical cycling via earlier snowmelt

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur A. D. Broadbent ◽  
Helen S. K. Snell ◽  
Antonios Michas ◽  
William J. Pritchard ◽  
Lindsay Newbold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Biogeochemical Cycling ◽  
Soil Microbial ◽  
Alpine Soil

scholarly journals Spatial distribution and temporal variation of microcrustaceans assembly (Cladocera and Copepoda) in different compartments of a reservoir in the brazilian semiarid region

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josiane Souza Santos ◽  
Nadson Ressyé Simões ◽  
Sérgio Luiz Sonoda
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Spatial Variation ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Aquatic Macrophytes ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Lateral Compartment ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Brazilian Semiarid ◽  
Significant Spatial Variation

Abstract Aim: The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of microcrustacean assemblages of a reservoir in the Brazilian semiarid region. Methods Physical and chemical water variables and samples of microcrustaceans were collected at eight sites of the reservoir between July 2013 and November 2014, in a total of seven campaigns. For this study, the reservoir was categorized in two compartments: lateral and central. Results Limnological variables showed significant temporal variation (PERMANOVA, Pseudo-F = 19.51, p = 0.001). Higher turbidity values and suspended solids were observed in the rainiest months, while during the dry months, we measured higher values of transparency, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll-a. It was not found significant spatial variation of limnological variables (PERMANOVA, Pseudo-F = 0.96; p = 0.394). During the study period, ten species were recorded: four Cladocera (Ceriodaphnia cornuta, Daphnia gessneri, Diaphanosoma birgei and Diaphanosoma spinulosum ) three Copepoda Calanoida (Argyrodiaptomus azevedoi, Notodiaptomus cearensis and Notodiaptomus iheringi) and three Copepoda Cyclopoida (Macrocyclops albidus, Thermocyclops minutus and Thermocyclops decipiens). The microcrustacean assemblages showed significant temporal variation (PERMANOVA, Pseudo-F = 4.34; p = 0.001) as well as significant spatial variation (PERMANOVA, Pseudo-F = 9.46; p = 0.001). The highest values of abundance and richness were observed in the lateral compartment, this result is mainly related to the presence of aquatic macrophytes in this region, because the analysis of partial RDA indicated that limnological variables explained only 11% of this variation (Pseudo-F = 2.08, p = 0.001). Conclusions The results suggest that the seasonality of the semiarid is an important factor in the temporal dynamics of the limnological variables, while the aquatic macrophytes play an important role in the spatial distribution of the microcrustacean assembly.

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