Using real-time syndromic surveillance systems to help explore the acute impact of the air pollution incident of March/April 2014 in England

AbstractIntroductionThe Public Health England (PHE; United Kingdom) Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team (ReSST) currently operates four national syndromic surveillance systems, including an emergency department system. A system based on ambulance data might provide an additional measure of the “severe” end of the clinical disease spectrum. This report describes the findings and lessons learned from the development and preliminary assessment of a pilot syndromic surveillance system using ambulance data from the West Midlands (WM) region in England.Hypothesis/ProblemIs an Ambulance Data Syndromic Surveillance System (ADSSS) feasible and of utility in enhancing the existing suite of PHE syndromic surveillance systems?MethodsAn ADSSS was designed, implemented, and a pilot conducted from September 1, 2015 through March 1, 2016. Surveillance cases were defined as calls to the West Midlands Ambulance Service (WMAS) regarding patients who were assigned any of 11 specified chief presenting complaints (CPCs) during the pilot period. The WMAS collected anonymized data on cases and transferred the dataset daily to ReSST, which contained anonymized information on patients’ demographics, partial postcode of patients’ location, and CPC. The 11 CPCs covered a broad range of syndromes. The dataset was analyzed descriptively each week to determine trends and key epidemiological characteristics of patients, and an automated statistical algorithm was employed daily to detect higher than expected number of calls. A preliminary assessment was undertaken to assess the feasibility, utility (including quality of key indicators), and timeliness of the system for syndromic surveillance purposes. Lessons learned and challenges were identified and recorded during the design and implementation of the system.ResultsThe pilot ADSSS collected 207,331 records of individual ambulance calls (daily mean=1,133; range=923-1,350). The ADSSS was found to be timely in detecting seasonal changes in patterns of respiratory infections and increases in case numbers during seasonal events.ConclusionsFurther validation is necessary; however, the findings from the assessment of the pilot ADSSS suggest that selected, but not all, ambulance indicators appear to have some utility for syndromic surveillance purposes in England. There are certain challenges that need to be addressed when designing and implementing similar systems.TodkillD, LoveridgeP, ElliotAJ, MorbeyRA, EdeghereO, Rayment-BishopT, Rayment-BishopC, ThornesJE, SmithG. Utility of ambulance data for real-time syndromic surveillance: a pilot in the West Midlands region, United Kingdom. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(6):667–672.

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The use of syndromic surveillance to monitor the incidence of arthropod bites requiring healthcare in England, 2000–2013: a retrospective ecological study

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268816000686 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 144 (11) ◽

pp. 2251-2259 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

S. NEWITT ◽

A. J. ELLIOT ◽

R. MORBEY ◽

H. DURNALL ◽

M. E. PIETZSCH ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Real Time ◽

Syndromic Surveillance ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Health Impact ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Surveillance Systems ◽

Out Of Hours ◽

Baseline Incidence ◽

The Impact

SUMMARYClimate change experts predict the number of nuisance-biting arthropods in England will increase but there is currently no known surveillance system in place to monitor or assess the public health impact of arthropod bites. This retrospective ecological study utilized arthropod bites requiring healthcare from five national real-time syndromic surveillance systems monitoring general practitioner (GP) consultations (in-hours and out-of-hours), emergency department (ED) attendances and telephone calls to remote advice services to determine baseline incidence in England between 2000 and 2013 and to assess the association between arthropod bites and temperature. During summer months (weeks 20–40) we estimated that arthropod bites contribute a weekly median of ~4000 GP consultations, 750 calls to remote advice services, 700 ED and 1300 GP out-of-hours attendances. In all systems, incidence was highest during summer months compared to the rest of the year. Arthropod bites were positively associated with temperature with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) that ranged between systems from 1·03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·01–1·06] to 1·14 (95% CI 1·11–1·16). Using syndromic surveillance systems we have established and described baseline incidence of arthropod bites and this can now be monitored routinely in real time to assess the impact of extreme weather events and climate change.

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Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time

10.1101/2021.09.08.21263270 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Kris V Parag ◽

Christl A. Donnelly

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Models ◽

Real Time ◽

Syndromic Surveillance ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Pathogen Transmission ◽

False Alarms ◽

Surveillance Systems ◽

Epidemic Spread ◽

Fundamental Limits

We find that epidemic resurgence, defined as an upswing in the effective reproduction number (R) of the contagion from subcritical to supercritical values, is fundamentally difficult to detect in real time. Intrinsic latencies in pathogen transmission, coupled with often smaller incidence across periods of subcritical spread mean that resurgence cannot be reliably detected without significant delays, even if case reporting is perfect. This belies epidemic suppression (where R falls from supercritical to subcritical values), which can be ascertained 5-10 times more rapidly. These innate limits on detecting resurgence only worsen when spatial or demographic heterogeneities are incorporated. Consequently, we argue that resurgence is more effectively handled proactively, at the expense of false alarms. Responses to recrudescent infections or emerging variants of concern will more likely be timely if informed by improved syndromic surveillance systems than by optimised mathematical models of epidemic spread.

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An Observational Study Using English Syndromic Surveillance Data Collected During the 2012 London Olympics – What did Syndromic Surveillance Show and What Can We Learn for Future Mass-gathering Events?

Prehospital and Disaster Medicine ◽

10.1017/s1049023x16000923 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 31 (6) ◽

pp. 628-634 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Dan Todkill ◽

Helen E. Hughes ◽

Alex J. Elliot ◽

Roger A. Morbey ◽

Obaghe Edeghere ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Observational Study ◽

Real Time ◽

Syndromic Surveillance ◽

Olympic Games ◽

Surveillance Data ◽

Surveillance Systems ◽

Mass Gathering ◽

Opening Ceremony ◽

London 2012

AbstractIntroductionIn preparation for the London 2012 Olympic Games, existing syndromic surveillance systems operating in England were expanded to include daily general practitioner (GP) out-of-hours (OOH) contacts and emergency department (ED) attendances at sentinel sites (the GP OOH and ED syndromic surveillance systems: GPOOHS and EDSSS).Hypothesis/ProblemThe further development of syndromic surveillance systems in time for the London 2012 Olympic Games provided a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of a large mass-gathering event on public health and health services as monitored in near real-time by syndromic surveillance of GP OOH contacts and ED attendances. This can, in turn, aid the planning of future events.MethodsThe EDSSS and GPOOHS data for London and England from July 13 to August 26, 2012, and a similar period in 2013, were divided into three distinct time periods: pre-Olympic period (July 13-26, 2012); Olympic period (July 27 to August 12); and post-Olympic period (August 13-26, 2012). Time series of selected syndromic indicators in 2012 and 2013 were plotted, compared, and risk assessed by members of the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team (ReSST) in Public Health England (PHE). Student’s t test was used to test any identified changes in pattern of attendance.ResultsVery few differences were found between years or between the weeks which preceded and followed the Olympics. One significant exception was noted: a statistically significant increase (P value = .0003) in attendances for “chemicals, poisons, and overdoses, including alcohol” and “acute alcohol intoxication” were observed in London EDs coinciding with the timing of the Olympic opening ceremony (9:00 pm July 27, 2012 to 01:00 am July 28, 2012).ConclusionsSyndromic surveillance was able to provide near to real-time monitoring and could identify hourly changes in patterns of presentation during the London 2012 Olympic Games. Reassurance can be provided to planners of future mass-gathering events that there was no discernible impact in overall attendances to sentinel EDs or GP OOH services in the host country. The increase in attendances for alcohol-related causes during the opening ceremony, however, may provide an opportunity for future public health interventions.TodkillD, HughesHE, ElliotAJ, MorbeyRA, EdeghereO, HarcourtS, HughesT, EndericksT, McCloskeyB, CatchpoleM, IbbotsonS, SmithG. An observational study using English syndromic surveillance data collected during the 2012 London Olympics – what did syndromic surveillance show and what can we learn for future mass-gathering events?Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(6):628–634.

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Using real-time syndromic surveillance to monitor the health effects of air pollution

Online Journal of Public Health Informatics ◽

10.5210/ojphi.v10i1.8651 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sally Harcourt ◽

Lydia Izon-Cooper ◽

Felipe D. Colón-González ◽

Roger Morbey ◽

Gillian Smith ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Health Care ◽

Air Pollution ◽

Syndromic Surveillance ◽

Health Care Seeking ◽

Surveillance Systems ◽

Care Seeking ◽

Health Care Seeking Behaviour ◽

The Impact ◽

Care Seeking Behaviour

ObjectiveTo explore the utility of syndromic surveillance systems for detecting and monitoring the impact of air pollution incidents on health-care seeking behaviour in England between 2012 and 2017.IntroductionThe negative effect of air pollution on human health is well documented illustrating increased risk of respiratory, cardiac and other health conditions. [1] Currently, during air pollution episodes Public Health England (PHE) syndromic surveillance systems [2] provide a near real-time analysis of the health impact of poor air quality. In England, syndromic surveillance has previously been used on an ad hoc basis to monitor health impact; this has usually happened during widespread national air pollution episodes where the air pollution index has reached ‘High’ or ‘Very High’ levels on the UK Daily Air Quality Index (DAQI). [3-5]We now aim to undertake a more systematic approach to understanding the utility of syndromic surveillance for monitoring the health impact of air pollution. This would improve our understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of syndromic surveillance systems for contributing to the public health response to acute air pollution incidents; form a baseline for future interventions; assess whether syndromic surveillance systems provide a useful tool for public health alerting; enable us to explore which pollutants drive changes in health-care seeking behaviour; and add to the knowledge base.MethodsThe systematic approach will involve accessing historical data for air pollution incidents and syndromic surveillance data over the period 2012-17 across England. We will use PM10, PM2.5, ozone, NO2 , SO2 and DAQI data to define air pollution periods, and historical syndromic surveillance system data for respiratory syndromes (asthma, difficulty breathing, wheeze, cough, bronchitis, sore throat and allergic rhinitis), cardiac (all cardiovascular and myocardial infarction) and eye irritation/conjunctivitis syndromes. We will use regression modelling and cross-correlation analyses to determine the effects of air pollution, weather and pollen upon these syndromes and thus provide evidence of the sensitivity of these systems. Historical data on additional environmental variables including temperature and precipitation, humidity and thunderstorm activity, pollen and fungal spores will be accounted for in the regression models, as well as data on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) laboratory reports. We will include sub-national geographies and age/gender analyses in the study depending on the data availability and suitability.ResultsInitial results presented will include the preliminary descriptive epidemiology with a focus on asthma and the impact of air pollution incidents on health-care seeking behaviour using data from the PHE national syndromic surveillance systems.ConclusionsWe aim to demonstrate an innovative use of syndromic surveillance data to explore the impact of air pollution incidents on health-care seeking behaviour in England, in turn improving our understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of these systems for detecting the impact of air pollution incidents and to contribute to the knowledge base. This understanding will improve the public health response to future incidents.References1. World Health Organization (WHO). Preventing disease through healthy environments. Exposure to air pollution: A major public health concern. (http://www.who.int/ipcs/features/air_pollution.pdf). Accessed 28/09/20172. Public Health England. Syndromic surveillance: systems and analyses. (https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/syndromic-surveillance-systems-and-analyses). Accessed 20/09/20173. Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Daily Air Quality Index (DAQI). (https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/air-pollution/daqi). Accessed 28/06/20174. Smith GE, et al. Using real-time syndromic surveillance systems to help explore the acute impact of the air pollution incident of March/April 2014 in England. Environ Res 2015; 136: 500-504.5. Elliot AJ, et al. Monitoring the effect of air pollution episodes on health care consultations and ambulance call-outs in England during March/April 2014: A retrospective observational analysis. Environ Pollut 2016; 214: 903-911.

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Syndromic surveillance: two decades experience of sustainable systems – its people not just data!

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268819000074 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 147 ◽

Author(s):

Gillian E. Smith ◽

Alex J. Elliot ◽

Iain Lake ◽

Obaghe Edeghere ◽

Roger Morbey ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Real Time ◽

Syndromic Surveillance ◽

Situational Awareness ◽

Clinical Signs ◽

Added Value ◽

Surveillance Systems ◽

Public Health Action ◽

Related Data ◽

The Impact

AbstractSyndromic surveillance is a form of surveillance that generates information for public health action by collecting, analysing and interpreting routine health-related data on symptoms and clinical signs reported by patients and clinicians rather than being based on microbiologically or clinically confirmed cases. In England, a suite of national real-time syndromic surveillance systems (SSS) have been developed over the last 20 years, utilising data from a variety of health care settings (a telehealth triage system, general practice and emergency departments). The real-time systems in England have been used for early detection (e.g. seasonal influenza), for situational awareness (e.g. describing the size and demographics of the impact of a heatwave) and for reassurance of lack of impact on population health of mass gatherings (e.g. the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games).We highlight the lessons learnt from running SSS, for nearly two decades, and propose questions and issues still to be addressed. We feel that syndromic surveillance is an example of the use of ‘big data’, but contend that the focus for sustainable and useful systems should be on the added value of such systems and the importance of people working together to maximise the value for the public health of syndromic surveillance services.

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