Abstract. Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes.
Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood
risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system
processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is
generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur
and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent
changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect
flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis
which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate,
catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application
of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that
flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change
scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much
attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh
changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the
specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected
assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential
drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to
a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the
overall flood risk.
How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?