Tensions, capabilities, and justice in climate change mitigation of fossil fuels

This report describes the effects of climate change for Finland from the view of comprehensive security. The report examines both direct and indirect climate security risks as well as transition risks related to climate change mitigation. The report is based on previous research and expert interviews. Direct security risks refer to the immediate risks caused by the changing nature of natural hazards. These include the risks to critical infrastructure and energy systems, the logistics system, health and food security. Indirect security risks relate to the potential economic, political and geopolitical impacts of climate change. Climate change can affect global migration, increase conflict risk, and cause social tensions and inequality. Transition risks are related to economic and technological changes in energy transition, as well as political and geopolitical tensions and social problems caused by climate change mitigation policies. Reducing the use of fossil fuels can result in domestic and foreign policy tensions and economic pressure especially in locations dependent on fossil fuels. Political tension can also increase the risks associated with hybrid and information warfare. The security effects of climate change affect all sectors of society and the Finnish comprehensive security model should be utilized in preparing for them. In the short run, the most substantial arising climate change related security risks in Finland are likely to occur through indirect or transition risks. Finland, similar to other wealthy countries, has better technological, economic and institutional conditions to deal with the problems and risks posed by climate change than many other countries. However, this requires political will and focus on risk reduction and management.

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Bio-energy and CO2 emission reductions: an integrated land-use and energy sector perspective

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-020-02895-z ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 163 (3) ◽

pp. 1675-1693 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Nico Bauer ◽

David Klein ◽

Florian Humpenöder ◽

Elmar Kriegler ◽

Gunnar Luderer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Fossil Fuel ◽

Energy Sector ◽

Emission Mitigation ◽

Model Framework ◽

Context Variables ◽

Change Mitigation

AbstractBiomass feedstocks can be used to substitute fossil fuels and effectively remove carbon from the atmosphere to offset residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sectors. Both features make biomass valuable for climate change mitigation; therefore, CO2 emission mitigation leads to complex and dynamic interactions between the energy and the land-use sector via emission pricing policies and bioenergy markets. Projected bioenergy deployment depends on climate target stringency as well as assumptions about context variables such as technology development, energy and land markets as well as policies. This study investigates the intra- and intersectorial effects on physical quantities and prices by coupling models of the energy (REMIND) and land-use sector (MAgPIE) using an iterative soft-link approach. The model framework is used to investigate variations of a broad set of context variables, including the harmonized variations on bioenergy technologies of the 33rd model comparison study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on climate change mitigation and large scale bioenergy deployment. Results indicate that CO2 emission mitigation triggers strong decline of fossil fuel use and rapid growth of bioenergy deployment around midcentury (~ 150 EJ/year) reaching saturation towards end-of-century. Varying context variables leads to diverse changes on mid-century bioenergy markets and carbon pricing. For example, reducing the ability to exploit the carbon value of bioenergy increases bioenergy use to substitute fossil fuels, whereas limitations on bioenergy supply shift bioenergy use to conversion alternatives featuring higher carbon capture rates. Radical variations, like fully excluding all technologies that combine bioenergy use with carbon removal, lead to substantial intersectorial effects by increasing bioenergy demand and increased economic pressure on both sectors. More gradual variations like selective exclusion of advanced bioliquid technologies in the energy sector or changes in diets mostly lead to substantial intrasectorial reallocation effects. The results deepen our understanding of the land-energy nexus, and we discuss the importance of carefully choosing variations in sensitivity analyses to provide a balanced assessment.

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The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels

Climate Policy ◽

10.1080/14693062.2018.1483885 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

pp. 258-274 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

Filip Johnsson ◽

Jan Kjärstad ◽

Johan Rootzén

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Change Mitigation

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Energy, Climate Change and Security: The Russian Strategic Conundrum

Journal of Eurasian Studies ◽

10.1177/18793665211054518 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 187936652110545

Author(s):

Jakub Maciej Godzimirski

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Energy Markets ◽

Regional Energy ◽

Strategic Factor ◽

Change Mitigation

Global and regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by policies aimed at climate change mitigation, with possible grave implications for major producers and exporters of fossil fuels – including Russia, which is planning further increases. This article examines the evolution of Russian official thinking on the role of climate change as a strategic factor in policymaking as expressed in key documents on security and in strategic statements made by Presidents Putin and Medvedev (2000–2020). The set of strategic statements examined in this article show surprisingly little attention to this important matter.

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GHG displacement factors of harvested wood products: the myth of substitution

10.21203/rs.3.rs-26980/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Philippe LETURCQ

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Steady State ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Wood Products ◽

Material Substitution ◽

Carbon Neutrality ◽

Time Horizons ◽

Change Mitigation

Abstract Abstract Background: A currently held idea is that substituting wood for fossil fuels and energy intensive materials reduces greenhouse gas emissions. This is supported by the values usually attributed to the displacement factors that normalise the emission reduction to the wood carbon mass (typically, 0.5 tC/tC for fossil fuel substitution, 2 tC/tC for building material substitution). These values are based on the “carbon neutrality” assumption of harvested wood, which is claimed valid as long as forests are sustainably managed, but holds true in static conditions only. Harvesting disturbs forest growth and wood carbon storage for a long term. Therefore, the carbon footprint of harvested wood and related displacement factors must be assessed as time-dependant quantities, and the effect of substitutions should be appreciated relatively to specific time horizons. In this study, the meaning, values and use of the displacement factors are reconsidered according to this new line of thinking. Results: When taking into account the forest carbon dynamics, the presumed values of the displacement factors under the carbon neutrality assumption are achieved only in steady-state conditions, a very long time after harvest. Shortly after harvest, and even for time horizons comparable with climatic deadlines, the transient values of these factors appear much less than the steady-state values, and may even be negative. This is especially the case for the substitution of wood for fossil fuels which first increases the carbon emission for the same energy released. An additional weakness of the ordinary concept of displacement lies in possible misevaluations of carbon benefits from substitution, especially when large sectors of wood products are concerned or when the market conditions are disregarded. Corrective measures are proposed for this. Conclusions: The use of inadequate constant values of displacement factors under the carbon neutrality assumption and the supposition that wood substitution for other fuels or materials is always possible and effective leads to overestimations of carbon benefits. These overestimations erroneously incite the increase in harvesting and wood utilisation, which may be counter-productive for climate change mitigation objectives, especially when wood is used as a fuel. Keywords: Forest carbon, Harvested wood products, Carbon accounting, Carbon neutrality, Sequestration parity, Energy and material substitution, Displacement factors, Climate change mitigation.

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Australian fires may destabilise prime minister

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db250008 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Prime Minister ◽

Economic Importance ◽

Content Type ◽

Decisive Action ◽

Climate Disasters ◽

Change Mitigation

Significance The bushfires will wipe billions of dollars off 2020 economic growth and could push Australia’s economy into deficit in this quarter. Insurance claims already exceed 700 million dollars (417 million US dollars). Impacts With climate disasters likely to become more intense, long-term investment will be needed to protect communities. Damage to Australia’s image will hurt tourism and intensify pressure for decisive action on emissions. Labor and the Greens could benefit from the coalition’s political difficulties and stance on climate change. The coalition will approach climate change mitigation as an economic issue, partly to avoid party splits. Fossil fuels’ economic importance means the Liberals will not change energy policies right away.

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Climate Change Mitigation Policies in the Transportation Sector in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Environments ◽

10.3390/environments7110099 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 99

Author(s):

Tatiana Bruce da Silva ◽

Patrícia Baptista ◽

Carlos A. Santos Silva ◽

Luan Santos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rio De Janeiro ◽

Power Plants ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Transportation Sector ◽

Restriction Policy ◽

Change Mitigation ◽

Emission Restriction ◽

Mitigation Policies

This study analyzes climate change mitigation policies focused on light-duty electric vehicles (LDEVs) in the transportation sector in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, in the 2016–2050 period. We use the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) to analyze scenarios that consider greater uptake of LDEVs in different time frames, implementation of a CO2 emission restriction policy, exclusion of fossil fuels from the power mix, and a combination of these policies. We find that carbon pricing, along with higher rates of LDEVs adoption, causes the highest emission reductions (up to 47%), albeit at higher costs. LDEVs become the preferred vehicle technology as soon as they reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in different scenarios. Greater LDEVs uptake, however, leads to increased electricity consumption (up to 3%), which is provided by fossil fuels when there is no emission restriction policy. If restrictions are placed on the expansion of fossil fuel power plants, fewer LDEVs are adopted (up to less than 26%) because there is not enough electricity to supply the demand. Given the state’s power mix in 2016 (58% provided by fossil fuels), investment in zero-carbon energy is necessary for mitigation policies in the transportation sector to be effective.

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Energy system change and external effects in climate change mitigation

Environment and Development Economics ◽

10.1017/s1355770x07003580 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 359-378 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

DENNIS ANDERSON ◽

SARAH WINNE

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Cost Benefit ◽

System Change ◽

Energy System ◽

Environmental Damage ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Linear Processes ◽

Change Mitigation

Through a dynamic model of energy system change the paper examines the role of innovation in bringing about a low carbon energy system. The processes of innovation and technological substitution are cumulative, dynamic, and highly non-linear processes such that how the energy system evolves in the long term is extraordinarily sensitive to the strength and duration of the initial policies. It is possible, under some policy assumptions, that energy systems would continue to depend on fossil fuels for so long as fossil fuels remain abundant and the least cost resource; and under other assumptions, after allowing for the unavoidable lags associated with investment and the building up of a new capital stock, that fossil fuels would become almost wholly displaced by the non-carbon alternatives. The implication is that the external benefits of innovation, which include the creation of options and the reduction of costs arising directly from innovation itself, and the reduction of environmental damage, are far greater, perhaps by orders of magnitude, than the traditional cost–benefit models used for the analysis of climate change mitigation. The analysis suggests why a focus on discovery and innovation offers a promising way forward for national and international policies on climate change.

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