Implications of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies for National Well-Being: A Systems Perspective

The ongoing COVID-19 crisis and measures aimed at curbing the pandemic have a widespread impact on various aspects of well-being, such as housing, social connections, and others. Moreover, COVID-19 does not affect all population groups equally. This study analyzes the impact of major COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on a set of national well-being indicators from the most recent version of the OECD Well-Being Framework. Using causal loop diagrams (systems maps), we consider direct and indirect effects of these policies on various components of the national well-being system. Our results show that business closures directly and/or indirectly impact more national well-being components than any other policy. The most affected national well-being components by all policies are life satisfaction, perceived health, and prevalence of depressive symptoms. In addition, we specify how the impact of the anti-pandemic measures differs for various population strata, using the degree of income and employment loss as key stratifying variables. Our insights can be helpful to identify and promote measures that can alleviate the adverse effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the national well-being.

Mapping the biotic degradation hazard of wood in Europe – biophysical background, engineering applications, and climate change-induced prospects

Construction using timber has seen a resurgence in light of global climate mitigation policies. Wood is a renewable resource, and engineered wood products are proving to be competitive against concrete and steel while having several advantages. However, while the renewable nature of wood in construction is a beneficial property for climate mitigation policies, the process of biodegradation introduces a challenge for service life planning. A review of hazard mapping is presented while developing contemporary hazard maps, occurrence maps and projected hazard maps for 2050 using representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. The risk of timber decay is expected to increase in most of Europe as the temperatures rise, with a decrease expected in dryer regions. Termites are likely to experience a range expansion as more areas become suitable, while human activity and an increase in extreme weather events like floods are expected to facilitate dispersion. Marine borer species already present a risk in most European coastal regions; however, the effect of changes in water temperatures are likely to shift the boundaries for individual borer species. Overall, warmer climates are expected to increase the metabolic activity of all of these organisms leading to a general reduction in service life.

Short- and long-term warming effects of methane may affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and benefits of low-meat diets

Methane’s short atmospheric life has important implications for the design of global climate change mitigation policies in agriculture. Three different agricultural economic models are used to explore how short- and long-term warming effects of methane can affect the cost-effectiveness of mitigation policies and dietary transitions. Results show that the choice of a particular metric for methane’s warming potential is key to determine optimal mitigation options, with metrics based on shorter-term impacts leading to greater overall emission reduction. Also, the promotion of low-meat diets is more effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to carbon pricing when mitigation policies are based on metrics that reflect methane’s long-term behaviour. A combination of stringent mitigation measures and dietary changes could achieve substantial emission reduction levels, helping reverse the contribution of agriculture to global warming.

Response of atmospheric composition to COVID-19 lockdown measures during spring in the Paris region (France)

Since early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to lockdowns at national scales. These lockdowns resulted in large cuts of atmospheric pollutant emissions, notably related to the vehicular traffic source, especially during spring 2020. As a result, air quality changed in manners that are still currently under investigation. The robust quantitative assessment of the impact of lockdown measures on ambient concentrations is however hindered by weather variability. In order to circumvent this difficulty, an innovative methodology has been developed. The Analog Application for Air Quality (A3Q) method is based on the comparison of each day of lockdown to a group of analog days having similar meteorological conditions. The A3Q method has been successfully evaluated and applied to a comprehensive in situ dataset of primary and secondary pollutants obtained at the SIRTA observatory, a suburban background site of the megacity of Paris (France). The overall slight decrease of submicron particulate matter (PM1) concentrations (−14 %) compared to business-as-usual conditions conceals contrasting behaviors. Primary traffic tracers (NOx and traffic-related carbonaceous aerosols) dropped by 42 %–66 % during the lockdown period. Further, the A3Q method enabled us to characterize changes triggered by NOx decreases. Particulate nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs), two of the main springtime aerosol components in northwestern Europe, decreased by −45 % and −25 %, respectively. A NOx relationship emphasizes the interest of NOx mitigation policies at the regional (i.e., city) scale, although long-range pollution advection sporadically overcompensated for regional decreases. Variations of the oxidation state of SOA suggest discrepancies in SOA formation processes. At the same time, the expected ozone increase (+20 %) underlines the negative feedback of NO titration. These results provide a quasi-comprehensive observation-based insight for mitigation policies regarding air quality in future low-carbon urban areas.

A tale of three cities: climate heterogeneity

Professor Dolado has developed much of his professional career in three cities: Zaragoza, Oxford and Madrid. This fact, together with the recent appearance of literature relating climate with human behavior, has inspired us to analyze a set of relevant climate change issues linked to these areas, particularly any possible heterogeneity. The novel methodology proposed in (Gadea Rivas and Gonzalo in J Econom 214:153–174, 2020a for analyzing a wide range of characteristics of the temperature distribution (converting them into time series objects), instead of focusing solely on the mean, allows us to carry out this analysis . Using this methodology, we can identify local warming patterns within the global warming phenomenon of different types and intensities. The results show that there is a clear warming process in the three areas. The two Spanish cities (Zaragoza and Madrid) have many similarities, but Oxford fits into a different type of warming category. The former are characterized by higher trends in the upper quantiles than in the lower, an increase in dispersion, acceleration and an “upper amplification” with respect to the mean. In Oxford, the type of climate change is different, displaying higher trends in the lower quantiles, a weak negative trend in dispersion, “lower amplification” and a more attenuated acceleration in recent decades. There is no doubt that a better knowledge of local warming heterogeneity is recommendable for the design of more effective mitigation policies. The influence of the climate on human behavior and, specifically, on Professor Dolado’s personality, takes us into lesser-known regions which are left for the reader to discern.