Abstract. Annually, tractor accidents are estimated to account for more than 100 deaths in South Korea. Periodic accident surveys have served as an essential means for the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) to develop strategies to prevent tractor accidents. In this study, hazards leading to accidents were identified, and their risks were assessed based on survey results to establish a more effective accident prevention strategy. Risk assessment for hazards proceeded as follows: hazard identification, frequency estimation, number of equivalent fatalities (NEF) estimation, and finally risk evaluation. Hazards were identified by analyzing 588 accident cases from NAS surveys and performing an expert review of the analysis results by implementing a Delphi survey. The frequency and NEF of each hazard were estimated by multiplying its probabilities and the statistical results of the NAS surveys. Each hazard was plotted in a frequency-NEF (FN) diagram and evaluated according to its position. Fifty-four hazards were identified, and their frequencies and NEF values were estimated. The risk evaluation results, based on the FN diagram, revealed that no hazard was located in the “unacceptable” area, and two hazards (carelessness and not looking ahead carefully) were in the “as low as reasonably practicable” area. Thus, it is critical to mitigate the effects of these two hazards. With the risk assessment method used in this study, personnel who are engaged in the prevention of tractor accidents, such as policymakers, extension specialists, and researchers, can quantitatively predict how many cases or fatalities can be reduced by eliminating a certain hazard. Keywords: Equivalent fatality, Frequency estimation, Hazard identification, Risk assessment, Tractor accident.
Copula-Based Stochastic Simulation for Regional Drought Risk Assessment in South Korea
