Credit contagion and competitive effects of bond rating downgrades along the supply chain

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 232-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Hsien Chang ◽  
Mao-Wei Hung ◽  
Feng-Tse Tsai
2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven T. Anderson ◽  
Gurmeet Singh Bhabra ◽  
Harjeet S. Bhabra ◽  
Asjeet S. Lamba

We study the information content of corporate bond rating changes regarding future earnings and dividends. Consistent with previous findings, rating downgrades are associated with negative abnormal stock returns, while rating upgrades appear to be nonevents. For downgrades, earnings decline in the two years prior to and the year of the rating change announcement but increase in the year after the rating review. We also find that rating downgrades are followed by a subsequent downward adjustment in dividends. While rating upgrades follow a period of rising earnings, they do not signal any increase in future earnings and no subsequent dividend adjustments are observed. Overall, our results indicate that rating agencies respond more to permanent changes in cash flows and provide little information, if any, about future cash flows.


2003 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 93-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongtae Kim ◽  
Sandeep Nabar

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler R. Henry ◽  
Darren J. Kisgen ◽  
Juan (Julie) Wu

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Richard W Hawkins ◽  
Stephen A LeMay ◽  
Peter M Ralston

Commercial airports are publicly-owned transportation infrastructure, usually funded with bonds. The bond rating decision for these entities thus has important ramifications for bond investors, issuers, airport managers, and even the communities the airports serve, but the rating decision process is not well understood. This paper discusses a simulation of the rating process in two decision environments, including a downgrade. The effect of information framing in an environment of incomplete data is examined using amateur evaluators. Amateur evaluators were utilized to understand how people with limited financial analysis skills would respond when presented with incomplete information and a primed scenario. The results indicate that amateur evaluators were more likely to downgrade a bond grade than a ratings agency, but this effect was moderated for amateur evaluators with more work experience. Implications for airport and supply chain infrastructure are discussed.


2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 683-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Jorion ◽  
Gaiyan Zhang

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred Zhu Liu ◽  
Le Sun

Prior research documents significant negative long-term stock returns following bond-rating downgrades. Some downgraded firms are placed on credit watches before downgrades, and we find that the post-downgrade stock underperformance of such firms is significantly reduced. We explore two explanations for the difference in post-downgrade stock performance that are not mutually exclusive: (a) a credit watch placement provides an early signal of the subsequent rating downgrade and gives investors more time to better understand the information content of the downgrade (the early-disclosure effect), and (b) a credit watch placement induces better recovery from credit deterioration for the downgraded firm in the long run (the recovery effect). We find that firms receiving watch-preceded downgrades show better improvements in operating profitability, financial leverage, and overall default risk, and are less likely to be further downgraded in future periods, compared with firms that are directly downgraded. Our findings suggest that the recovery effect is important in explaining downgraded firms’ performance in the long run and provide new evidence in support of the premise in the recent literature that credit watches can induce on-watch firms’ efforts to restore deteriorated credit quality.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Huang ◽  
Lin He ◽  
Shanshan Xiong ◽  
Yirui Zhang

Author(s):  
Tyler R. Henry ◽  
Darren J. Kisgen ◽  
J. (Julie) Wu

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7861
Author(s):  
Imoh Antai ◽  
Crispin M. Mutshinda

We describe a methodology for identifying competitors from first principles, drawing on the ecological niche theory which stipulates that competition arises from the dependence of interacting entities on the same limiting resources or, in ecological terms, from overlap in their niches. Depending on the context, the entities of interest may be species, products, firms, countries, or supply chains. We discuss the concepts of niche breadth and niche overlap and provide a mathematical expression for computing the competitive effects of interacting entities on one another from niche breadth and overlap measures. We illustrate the competitor identification procedure with simulated data mimicking a situation where supply chains compete over logistics modes on which they rely for moving goods from point to point. Competition identification is invaluable to business sustainability as it allows the entities involved to remain sustainable and persist in a competitive environment by crafting effective strategies that allow them to continuously adapt to changes and mitigate the negative impacts of competition.


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