Revisiting Post-Downgrade Stock Underperformance

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred Zhu Liu ◽  
Le Sun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Recovery Effect ◽  
Bond Rating ◽  
Early Signal ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Difference ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Rating Downgrades

Prior research documents significant negative long-term stock returns following bond-rating downgrades. Some downgraded firms are placed on credit watches before downgrades, and we find that the post-downgrade stock underperformance of such firms is significantly reduced. We explore two explanations for the difference in post-downgrade stock performance that are not mutually exclusive: (a) a credit watch placement provides an early signal of the subsequent rating downgrade and gives investors more time to better understand the information content of the downgrade (the early-disclosure effect), and (b) a credit watch placement induces better recovery from credit deterioration for the downgraded firm in the long run (the recovery effect). We find that firms receiving watch-preceded downgrades show better improvements in operating profitability, financial leverage, and overall default risk, and are less likely to be further downgraded in future periods, compared with firms that are directly downgraded. Our findings suggest that the recovery effect is important in explaining downgraded firms’ performance in the long run and provide new evidence in support of the premise in the recent literature that credit watches can induce on-watch firms’ efforts to restore deteriorated credit quality.

scholarly journals Do corporate bond rating revisions convey information about earnings and dividend changes?

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven T. Anderson ◽  
Gurmeet Singh Bhabra ◽  
Harjeet S. Bhabra ◽  
Asjeet S. Lamba
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Rating ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
Rating Changes ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Rating Downgrades

We study the information content of corporate bond rating changes regarding future earnings and dividends. Consistent with previous findings, rating downgrades are associated with negative abnormal stock returns, while rating upgrades appear to be nonevents. For downgrades, earnings decline in the two years prior to and the year of the rating change announcement but increase in the year after the rating review. We also find that rating downgrades are followed by a subsequent downward adjustment in dividends. While rating upgrades follow a period of rising earnings, they do not signal any increase in future earnings and no subsequent dividend adjustments are observed. Overall, our results indicate that rating agencies respond more to permanent changes in cash flows and provide little information, if any, about future cash flows.

The Evolution and Importance of Public Credit

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Stasavage
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Early Modern Europe ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Public Credit ◽  
The Difference ◽  
City States ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Territorial States ◽  
New Evidence

This chapter examines why access to credit was important for European states and provides extensive new evidence on the evolution of public credit across five centuries, from 1250 to 1750. The ability to borrow was critical in medieval and early modern Europe because it allowed states to participate in wars, either defensive or offensive. In order to better understand this fact, the chapter analyzes the movement that took place from compulsory to paid service for soldiers, along with opportunities to finance wars through current taxation. It also explains when states first borrowed long-term and measures the cost of borrowing, focusing on interest rates based on nominal rates at issue when these are available, and based on the fiscal proxy when they are not. The chapter highlights the difference between city-states and territorial states, with the former enjoying an apparent financial advantage that allowed them to begin borrowing earlier and to obtain access to lower-cost finance.

scholarly journals Impact of Open-Market Share Repurchases on Long-Term Stock Returns

SAGE Open ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824401667019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Albaity ◽  
Diana Syafiza Said
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Sampling Period ◽  
Share Repurchases ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Portfolio Approach

After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, firms listed on Bursa Malaysia were allowed to repurchase their shares on the open market. The number of companies engaged in share buyback is increasing and has become a tool to stabilize price by signaling undervaluation of the share. However, studies on share buyback in Malaysia are limited to the price performance surrounding the buyback events. This study aims to fill this gap by examining long-run price performance after the actual share buyback event over a sampling period of 2 years from 2009 to 2010 for Malaysian firms listed on FTSE Bursa Malaysia. There is no evidence to conclude that there exist long-term abnormal returns using the calendar-time portfolio approach that support the inefficient market hypothesis. On the contrary, buy-and-hold method was found to be significant supporting that the Malaysian stock market is semi-strong efficient.

Long-term prior return patterns in stock and sector returns in India

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-210
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
Sakshi Jain
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Size Factor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Portfolio Managers ◽  
Sector Returns

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology involves portfolio generation based on company characteristics and long-term prior return (24-60 months). The characteristic sorted portfolios are then regressed on risk factors using one factor (capital asset pricing model (CAPM)) and multi-factor model (Fama-French (FF) model and four factor model involving three FF factors and an additional sectoral momentum factor). Findings – After controlling for short-term momentum (up to 12 months) as documented by Sehgal and Jain (2011), the authors observe that weak reversals emerge for the sample stocks. The risk model CAPM fails to account for these long-run prior return patterns. FF three-factor model is able to explain long-term prior return patterns in stock returns with the exception of 36-12-12 strategy. The value factor plays an important role while the size factor does not explain cross-section of average returns. Momentum patterns exist in long-term sector returns, which are stronger for long-term portfolio formation periods. Further, the authors construct sector factor and observe that prior returns patterns in stock returns are partially absorbed by this factor. Research limitations/implications – The findings are relevant for investment analysts and portfolio managers who are continuously tracking global markets, including India, in pursuit of extra normal returns. Originality/value – The study contributes to the asset pricing and behavioral literature from emerging markets.

scholarly journals Investigating long-run stock returns after corporate events: the UK evidence

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 298-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anupam Dutta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Security Market ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Traditional Calendar ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Abnormal Performance ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The objective of this paper is to assess the robustness of the existing long-run event study methodologies in the UK stock market. In doing so, the study employs the buy-and-hold abnormal return approach and the calendar time portfolio method to identify the long-term abnormal performance following corporate events. Although many recent studies consider the application of these two widely used approaches, each of the methods is a subject to criticisms. This paper uses the standardized calendar time approach (SCTA) which presents a number of important improvements over the traditional calendar time methodology. The empirical analysis reveals that all the traditional methodologies perform well in the UK security market. Our findings further report that SCTA documents better specification and power than the conventional approaches

scholarly journals Expectations or macroeconomic innovations: What drives the stakeholders’ decisions? Evidence from the euro area

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-189
Author(s):  
S. Ali Shah Syed ◽  
Hélène Syed Zwick
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
New Evidence

This study brings new evidence supporting the existence of the linkage between equity market and macroeconomic variables in the Euro area. Using the monthly data from January 1999 to September 2014 we show empirical relationship between stock returns and interest rate in the 19 countries using the euro. The results confirm that in Euro Area stock markets, the stockowners decisions are significantly influenced by the macroeconomic expectations, particularly the long run interest rate

Long-Run Inflation and Exchange Rates Hedge of Stocks in Brazil and Mexico

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar Ortiz ◽  
Alejandra Cabello ◽  
Raúl de Jesús
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Fisher Model

A substantial body of evidence documents the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock returns and risk from developed countries. The evidence for emerging markets is limited, particularly identifying risk premia compensations for inflation and exchange rates. This paper attempts to quantify the short and long term relationship between inflation and exchange rates with over all stock market performance for the case of the two largest Latin American capital markets, Mexico and Brazil. Extending the Fisher model, the aim is to determine whether or not these markets have failed to keep pace with movements in those two variables (the most unstable and economic growth hampering variables in these economies during the last three decades), and therefore to what extent the stock market succeeds or fails to test as inflation hedges. The empirical evidence is presented assuming positioning of a local investor in their own market, and from the point of view of a U.S. investor in each of these markets. Two unit root tests are also presented to stress long term relationships between stock returns, inflation, and foreign exchange.

scholarly journals IPO Intra Industry Effects on Peer Firm's Earnings, Composition and Stock Returns

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (II) ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irfan Khadim ◽  
Samreen Fahim Babar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Industry Effects ◽  
Cumulative Abnormal Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study is conducted to see how an IPO event affects the existing firm's performance within the same industry. For this purpose, 88 IPO firms were examined from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from 1998-2016. IPO is examined from three major perspectives IPO proceeds, initial returns and time Lag between IPO listing date and IPO subscription. The study uses Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR) and Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) to calculate competitor's abnormal returns. To calculate the operating performance of competitors, the Wilcoxon significance test was applied. IPO intra-industry effects are significant in the long run, whereas insignificant results are shown in the short run. In addition, IPO proceeds and abnormal returns are significant but negatively related to competitors' stock returns (long term). Moreover, Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) finds IPO improves competitiveness in the industry environment. This present study is an important one from an emerging economy perspective.

Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns – Evidence from BRICS markets using Panel Co integration Test

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanita Tripathi ◽  
Arnav Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stationary Characteristic ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

Stocks are generally considered to be a good hedge against inflation because of their tendency to move together. This paper examines long term relationship between inflation and stock returns in BRICS markets using panel data for the period from March 2000 to September 2013. Correlation results reveal a significant negative relationship between stock index and inflation rate for Russia and a significantly positive relationship for India & China. ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests indicate non-stationary characteristic of the data. Further we find no long term co-integrating relationship between stock index values and inflation rates using Pedroni panel co integration test. These findings have important implications for policy makers, regulators and investment community at large. There may seem to be short term contemporaneous relationship between inflation and equity returns but in the long run they do not seem to be significantly integrated. Changes in inflation may bring some short run movement in stock return but certainly equity does not seem to be a good hedge against inflation in long run at least in emerging BRICS markets.                       Keywords:  BRICS, Stock Index, Inflation, Unit root test, Pedroni Panel Co integration Test, Johansen Co integration Test.

scholarly journals Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields, and Real Bond Yields

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guihai Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Difference

This paper presents an equilibrium bond-pricing model that jointly explains the upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves and the violation of the expectations hypothesis. Instead of relying on the inflation risk premium, the ambiguity-averse agent faces different amounts of Knightian uncertainty in the long run versus the short run; hence, the model-implied nominal and real short rate expectations are upward sloping under the agent’s worst-case equilibrium beliefs. The expectations hypothesis roughly holds under investors’ worst-case beliefs. The difference between the worst-case scenario and the true distribution makes realized excess returns on long-term bonds predictable. (JEL D81, D84, E23, E31, E43, E44, G12)

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