204 Background: Previous studies have analyzed that inflammatory markers, such as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI), associated with the presence of invasive carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between the inflammatory markers and the invasive carcinoma in IPMN and propose a nomogram including inflammatory markers for predicting invasive IPMN. Methods: From 1995 to 2016, total 468 patients who underwent surgical resection at four institutions for histologically confirmed IPMN and the data were reviewed retrospectively. The patients with history of pancreatitis, other malignancies and without CA19-9 data or lymphocyte counts were excluded, the study cohort consisted of 365 patients. Variables with P < 0.05 in risk factor analysis were included in the nomogram. Results: Of 365 patients, 98 (26.8%) patients had invasive IPMN. In univariate analysis, high body mass index (BMI) ( P = 0.037), pre-operative bilirubin level ( P = 0.001), CA19-9 ( P < 0.001), NLR ( P = 0.019), PLR ( P = 0.002), ALI ( P = 0.001), main duct type (P < 0.001), the presence of solid portion ( P < 0.001) and tumor size (P = 0.086) were identified as risk factors for invasive IPMN. In multivariate analysis, pre-operative bilirubin level (P = 0.003), CA19-9 (P = 0.002), main duct type (P = 0.034) and the presence of solid portion (P < 0.001) were independent predictive markers for invasive IPMN. The nomogram was developed including all factors of risk factor analysis. Conclusions: The inflammatory markers were the risk factors for the presence of IPMN-associated invasive carcinoma. This nomogram may be useful in identifying patients with IPMN at risk of malignancy and for selecting which patients should undergo surgery. Further validation studies are needed to assess the predictive ability of nomogram including inflammatory markers.
Main duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: resect or not resect, that is the question
