Purpose Deregulation of the retinoblastoma (RB) pathway is commonly found in virtually all known human tumors. p16, the upstream regulator of RB, is among the most commonly affected member of this pathway. In the present study, we examined the prognostic value of p16 expression in men with locally advanced prostate cancer who were enrolled on Radiation Therapy Oncology Group protocol 9202. Patients and Methods RTOG 9202 was a phase III randomized study comparing long-term (LT) versus short-term (ST) androgen-deprivation therapy (AD). Of the 1,514 eligible cases, 612 patients had adequate tumor material for p16 analysis. Expression levels of p16 were determined by immunohistochemistry (IHC). IHC staining was scored quantitatively using an image analysis system. Results On multivariate analysis, intact p16 expression was significantly associated with decreased rate of distant metastases (P = .0332) when both STAD and LTAD treatment arms were considered together. For patients with intact (high levels of immunostaining) p16 (mean p16 index > 81.3%), LTAD plus radiotherapy (RT) significantly improved prostate cancer survival (PCS) compared with STAD plus RT (P = .0008) and reduced the frequency of distant metastasis (P = .0069) compared with STAD plus RT. In contrast, for patients with tumors demonstrating p16 loss (low levels of immunostaining, mean p16 index ≤ 81.3%), LTAD plus RT significantly improved biochemical no evidence of disease survival over STAD (P < .0001) primarily by decreasing the frequency of local progression (P = .02), as opposed to distant metastasis, which was the case in the high-p16 cohort. Conclusion Low levels of p16 on image analysis appear to be associated with a significantly higher risk of distant metastases among all study patients. p16 expression levels also appear to identify patients with locally advanced prostate cancer with distinct patterns of failure after LTAD.
Monte Carlo simulation of a Markov Model for a phase III clinical trial evaluating the addition of total androgen suppression (TAS) to radiation versus radiation alone for locally advanced prostate cancer (RTOG 86–10)