A probabilistic approach for a cost-benefit analysis of oil spill management under uncertainty: A Bayesian network model for the Gulf of Finland

2015 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 122-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inari Helle ◽  
Heini Ahtiainen ◽  
Emilia Luoma ◽  
Maria Hänninen ◽  
Sakari Kuikka
2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Shinoda ◽  
Koji Uru

In this study, a risk assessment model for ship collisions is proposed according to the guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approved by IMO in 2002. The analysis is applied to ship collisions between fishing and cargo vessels owing to their high frequency and enormous damage. Bayesian network theory for risk analysis has been applied to reveal a causal relationship on human factors. A trial evaluation of Risk Control Options (RCOs) for collisions is attempted through the calculation of the dominance index. Finally, a trial cost benefit analysis for RCOs is considered through Gross Cost of Averting Fatality (GCAF) in FSA.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mawuli Afenyo ◽  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Brian Veitch ◽  
Adolf K. Y. Ng ◽  
Zaman Sajid ◽  
...  

2010 ◽  
Vol 143-144 ◽  
pp. 629-633
Author(s):  
San Tong Zhang

A method for solving the fault diagnosis problem of air brake system based on probabilistic approach is presented. The fault diagnosis model based on Bayesian network was built for the uncertainty characteristic of fault in the air brake system. Through evaluating the characteristic of Bayesian networks in the diagnosis inference and model expression, it is demonstrated that this method can solve the uncertain problems in fault diagnosis. The test result has shown that the Bayesian network model is effective in fault diagnosis of the air brake system.


2005 ◽  
Vol 2005 (1) ◽  
pp. 463-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Gregory Massey ◽  
Steve Hampton ◽  
Michael Ziccardi

ABSTRACT In discussions about the value of cleaning and rehabilitating oiled wildlife, much attention is focused on the costs to provide such care. Several references have made widely varying claims regarding these costs, yet none have provided a detailed accounting of costs associated with rehabilitation. Therefore, this paper focuses on three oil spill responses conducted in northern California (M/V Kure, M/V Stuyvesant, and S.S. Jacob Luckenbach) since 1997. We examine the costs associated with wildlife care using detailed accounting provided by the Oiled Wildlife Care Network. We include all variable costs (including labor and travel expenses for staff at the facility, facility expenses such as utilities and other indirect costs, and supplies) and compare these amounts to the numbers of birds collected live and dead, as well as the number treated and released. We discuss other fixed and variable costs that are not included, as well as characteristics of the spill responses that impacted rehabilitation costs. Finally, we discuss the results with regard to natural resource damage assessments, the costs of restoring birds in the wild, and non-economic criteria relevant to an evaluation of the value of oiled bird rehabilitation. We conclude that costs and benefits vary based on factors that include the temporal nature of the spill, the level of preparation, and the behavior of the responsible party.


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