Hydrologic impacts of climate change: Comparisons between hydrological parameter uncertainty and climate model uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Vol 566 ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jisha Joseph ◽  
Subimal Ghosh ◽  
Amey Pathak ◽  
A.K. Sahai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Parameter ◽  
Climate Model Uncertainty ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Uncertainty in hydrological modelling of climate change impacts in four Norwegian catchments

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 457-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Lawrence ◽  
Ingjerd Haddeland
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Maximum Flows ◽  
Hydrological Parameter

Projections for the hydrological impacts of climate change are necessarily reliant on a chain of models for which numerous alternative models and approaches are available. Many of these alternatives produce dissimilar results which can undermine their use in practical applications due to these differences. A methodology for developing climate change impact projections and for representing the range of model outcomes is demonstrated based on the application of a hydrological model with input data from six regional climate scenarios, which have been further adjusted to match local conditions. Multiple best-fit hydrological model parameter sets are also used so that hydrological parameter uncertainty is included in the analysis. The methodology is applied to consider projected changes in the average annual maximum daily mean runoff in four catchments (Flaksvatn, Viksvatn, Masi and Nybergsund) which are characterised by regional differences in seasonal flow regimes. For catchments where rainfall makes the predominant contribution to annual maximum flows, hydrological parameter uncertainty is significant relative to other uncertainty sources. Parameter uncertainty is less important in catchments where spring snowmelt dominates the generation of maximum flows. In this case, differences between climate scenarios and methods for adjusting climate model output to local conditions dominate uncertainty.

scholarly journals Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

2013 ◽  
Vol 120 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 211-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Lung ◽  
Alessandro Dosio ◽  
William Becker ◽  
Carlo Lavalle ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Impact Indicators ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Climate Model Uncertainty

Assessment of climate-change impacts on alpine discharge regimes with climate model uncertainty

2006 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2091-2109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Horton ◽  
Bettina Schaefli ◽  
Abdelkader Mezghani ◽  
Benoît Hingray ◽  
André Musy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Model Uncertainty

scholarly journals “Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”

2014 ◽  
Vol 128 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 113-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. Harding ◽  
M. Rivington ◽  
M. J. Mineter ◽  
S. F. B. Tett
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Climate Model Uncertainty

scholarly journals Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 10461-10494 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Steffens ◽  
M. Larsbo ◽  
J. Moeys ◽  
E. Kjellström ◽  
N. Jarvis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
South West ◽  
Climate Uncertainty ◽  
Pesticide Losses ◽  
Pesticide Leaching

Abstract. The assessment of climate change impacts on the risk for pesticide leaching needs careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-west Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO-model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999) for an important agricultural production area in south-west Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios could provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses and assessments of changes in pesticide leaching risks.

scholarly journals Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2133-2155
Author(s):  
Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽  
Marie Pontoppidan ◽  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Chain ◽  
Small Catchments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

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