Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter ( λ , the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO 2 ) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966–1989 mean yields of groundnut ( Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of λ near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO 2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO 2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO 2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO 2 . The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

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Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources in the Nile Basin using a regional climate model ensemble

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1307/6/29/292017 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 6 (29) ◽

pp. 292017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Carlo Buontempo ◽

J K Lørup ◽

M A Antar ◽

M Sanderson ◽

M B Butts ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Nile Basin ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 486 ◽

pp. 351-364 ◽

Cited By ~ 203

Author(s):

Nigel W. Arnell ◽

Simon N. Gosling

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Flow ◽

Flow Regimes ◽

Global Scale ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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“Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-014-1296-8 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 128 (1-2) ◽

pp. 113-126 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

A. E. Harding ◽

M. Rivington ◽

M. J. Mineter ◽

S. F. B. Tett

Keyword(s):

Model Uncertainty ◽

Climate Model ◽

The Uk ◽

Climate Model Uncertainty

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Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-2133-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (8) ◽

pp. 2133-2155

Author(s):

Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽

Marie Pontoppidan ◽

Erle Kristvik ◽

Knut Alfredsen ◽

Tone M. Muthanna

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Reference Period ◽

Future Period ◽

The Mean ◽

Model Chain ◽

Small Catchments ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

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Future global crop production increases by adapting crop phenology to local climate change

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12758 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sara Minoli ◽

Jonas Jägermeyr ◽

Senthold Asseng ◽

Christoph Müller

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Management Practices ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Global Scale ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Systematic Evaluation ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Crop Phenology

Broad evidence is pointing at possible adverse impacts of climate change on crop yields. Due to scarce information about farming management practices, most global-scale studies, however, do not consider adaptation strategies.Here we integrate models of farmers' decision making with crop biophysical modeling at the global scale to investigate how accounting for adaptation of crop phenology affects projections of future crop productivity under climate change. Farmers in each simulation unit are assumed to adapt crop growing periods by continuously selecting sowing dates and cultivars that match climatic conditions best. We compare counterfactual management scenarios, assuming crop calendars and cultivars to be either the same as in the reference climate &#8211; as often assumed in previous climate impact assessments &#8211; or adapted to future climate.Based on crop model simulations, we find that the implementation of adapted growing periods can substantially increase (+15%) total crop production in 2080-2099 (RCP6.0). In general, summer crops are responsive to both sowing and harvest date adjustments, which result in overall longer growing periods and improved yields, compared to production systems without adaptation of growing periods. Winter wheat presents challenges in adapting to a warming climate and requires region-specific adjustments to pre and post winter conditions. We present a systematic evaluation of how local and climate-scenario specific adaptation strategies can enhance global crop productivity on current cropland. Our findings highlight the importance of further research on the readiness of required crop varieties.

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