scholarly journals Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments – results from a global climate model–regional climate model–hydrologic model chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2133-2155
Author(s):  
Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽  
Marie Pontoppidan ◽  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Chain ◽  
Small Catchments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats currently facing the world's environment. In Norway, a change in climate will strongly affect the pattern, frequency, and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is challenging to quantify to what extent the change will affect the flow patterns and floods from small rural catchments due to the unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and due to the tailoring of methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at the level of small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. In this study, we used such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway. We used a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance regarding the precipitation distribution, and a regionalized hydrological model (distance distribution dynamics) between a reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2070–2100). The flow-duration curves for all study catchments show more wet periods in the future than during the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16 % to 33 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 29 % to 38 %, and floods of 2- to 200-year return periods increase by 16 % to 43 %. The results are based on the RCP8.5 scenario from a single climate model simulation tailored to the Bergen region in western Norway, and the results should be interpreted in this context. The results should therefore be seen in consideration of other scenarios for the region to address the uncertainty. Nevertheless, the study increases our knowledge and understanding of the hydrological impacts of climate change on small catchments in the Bergen area in the western part of Norway.

scholarly journals Hydrological impacts of climate change on small ungauged catchments-results from a GCM-RCM-hydrologic model chain

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aynalem T. Tsegaw ◽  
Marie Pontoppidan ◽  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Knut Alfredsen ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Model Chain ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the World's environment. In Norway, the change will strongly affect the pattern, frequency and magnitudes of stream flows. However, it is highly challenging to quantify to what extent it will affect flow patterns and floods from small ungauged rural catchments due to unavailability or inadequacy of hydro-meteorological data for the calibration of hydrological models and tailoring methods to a small-scale level. To provide meaningful climate impact studies at small catchments, it is therefore beneficial to use high spatial and temporal resolution climate projections as input to a high-resolution hydrological model. Here we use such a model chain to assess the impacts of climate change on flow patterns and frequency of floods in small ungauged rural catchments in western Norway using a new high-resolution regional climate projection, with improved performance with regards to the precipitation distribution, and the regionalized hydrological model (Distance Distribution Dynamics) between the reference period (1981–2011) and a future period (2071–2100). The FDCs of all study catchments show there will be more wetter periods in the future than the reference period. The results also show that in the future period, the mean annual flow increases by 16.5 % to 33.3 %, and there will be an increase in the mean autumn, mean winter and mean spring flows ranging from 4.3 % to 256.3 %. The mean summer flow decreases by 7.2 % to 35.2 %. The mean annual maximum floods increase by 28.9 % to 38.3 %, and floods of 2 to 200 years return periods increase by 16.1 % to 42.7 %. The findings of this study could be of practical use to regional decision-makers if considered alongside other previous and future findings.

scholarly journals Water supply patterns over Germany under climate change conditions

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2959-2972 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. Tölle ◽  
C. Moseley ◽  
O. Panferov ◽  
G. Busch ◽  
A. Knohl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Time Periods

Abstract. A large ensemble of 24 bias-corrected and uncorrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations is used to investigate climate change impacts on water supply patterns over Germany using the seasonal winter and summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on 6-month precipitation sums. The climate change signal is studied comparing SPI characteristics for the reference period 1971–2000 with those of the "near" (2036–2065) and the "far" (2071–2100) future. The spread of the climate change signal within the simulation ensemble of bias-corrected versus non-corrected data is discussed. Ensemble scenarios are evaluated against available observation-based data over the reference period 1971–2000. After correcting the model biases, the model ensemble underestimates the variability of the precipitation climatology in the reference period, but replicates the mean characteristics. Projections of water supply patterns based on the SPI for the time periods 2036–2065 and 2071–2100 show wetter winter months during both future time periods. As a result soil drying may be delayed to late spring extending into the summer period, which could have an important effect on sensible heat fluxes. While projections indicate wetting in summer during 2036–2065, drier summers are estimated towards the south-west of Germany for the end of the 21st century. The use of the bias correction intensifies the signal to wetter conditions for both seasons and time periods. The spread in the projection of future water supply patterns between the ensemble members is explored, resulting in high spatial differences that suggest a higher uncertainty of the climate change signal in the southern part of Germany. It is shown that the spread of the climate change signals between SPIs based on single ensemble members is twice as large as the difference between the mean climate change signal of SPIs based on bias-corrected and uncorrected precipitation. This implies that the sensitivity of the SPI to the modelled precipitation bias is small compared to the range of the climate change signals within our ensemble. Therefore, the SPI is a very useful tool for climate change studies allowing us to avoid the additional uncertainties caused by bias corrections.

scholarly journals A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7191-7229 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. N. Gosling ◽  
R. G. Taylor ◽  
N. W. Arnell ◽  
M. C. Todd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are represented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs. This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evapotranspiration estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme (Q5, Q95) monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

scholarly journals High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation in Morocco

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 5687-5737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
D. Ruelland ◽  
S. Somot ◽  
R. Bouaicha ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Hydrological Impact ◽  
Split Sample

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of these high-resolution simulations. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of a catchment located in North Morocco, using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 km and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30% to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15% and −19% and for temperature between +1.28°C and +1.87°C.

scholarly journals Soil-Water Storage Predictions for Cultivated Crops on the Záhorská Lowlands

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-40
Author(s):  
Miroslava Jarabicová ◽  
Peter Minarič
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spring Barley ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Boundary

Abstract The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the soil-water regime of the Záhorská lowlands. The consequences of climate change on soil-water storage were analyzed for two crops: spring barley and maize. We analyzed the consequences of climate change on soil-water storage for two crops: spring barley and maize. The soil-water storage was simulated with the GLOBAL mathematical model. The data entered into the model as upper boundary conditions were established by the SRES A2 and SRES B1 climate scenarios and the KNMI regional climate model for the years from 2071 to 2100 (in the text called the time horizon 2085 which is in the middle this period). For the reference period the data from the years 1961-1990 was used. The results of this paper predict soil-water storage until the end of this century for the crops evaluated, as well as a comparison of the soil-water storage predictions with the course of the soil-water storage during the reference period.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Peninsular Malaysia

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ir. Mohd Zaki bin Mat Amin ◽  
Ali Ercan ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
M. Levent Kavvas ◽  
Z.Q. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this study, a regional climate model was used to dynamically downscale 15 future climate projections from three GCMs covering four emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1FI, A1B, A2) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets to 6-km horizontal resolution over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Impacts of climate change in the 21st century on the precipitation, air temperature, and soil water storage were assessed covering ten watersheds and twelve coastal regions. Then, by coupling a physical hydrology model with the regional climate model, the impacts of the climate change on river flows were assessed at the outlets of ten watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia. It was found that the increase in the 30-year mean annual precipitation from 1970–2000 to 2070–2100 will vary from 17.1 to 36.3 percent among the ten watersheds, and from 22.9 to 45.4 percent among twelve coastal regions. The ensemble average of the basin-average annual mean air temperature will increase about 2.52 °C to 2.95 °C from 2010 to 2100. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year mean basin-average annual mean soil water storage over the ten watersheds will vary from 0.7 to 10.9 percent at the end of 21st century, and that over the twelve coastal regions will vary from −1.7 to 15.8 percent. Ensemble averages of the annual mean flows of the 15 projections show increasing trends for the 10 watersheds, especially in the second half of the 21st century. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year average annual mean flows will vary from −2.1 to 14.3 percent in the early 21st century, 4.4 to 23.8 percent in the middle 21st century, and 19.1 to 45.8 percent in the end of 21st century.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berenger Koffi ◽  
Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽  
Affoué Berthe Yao ◽  
Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽  
Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nibéhibé does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nibéhibé in the central-western part of Côte d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27° C; 2.58° C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes in Bavaria

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Poschlod ◽  
Florian Willkofer ◽  
Ralf Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hierarchical Cluster ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Monthly Discharge ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

This study assesses the change of the seasonal runoff characteristics in 98 catchments in central Europe between the reference period of 1981–2010, and in the near future (2011–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2099). Therefore, a large ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations featuring the model WaSiM-ETH driven by a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) under the emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) is analyzed. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to group the runoff characteristics into six flow regime classes. In the study area, (glacio-)nival, nival (transition), nivo-pluvial and three different pluvial classes are identified. We find that the characteristics of all six regime groups are severely affected by climate change in terms of the amplitude and timing of the monthly peaks and sinks. According to our simulations, the monthly peak of nival regimes will occur earlier in the season and the relative importance of rainfall increases towards the future. Pluvial regimes will become less balanced with higher normalized monthly discharge during January to March and a strong decrease during May to October. In comparison to the reference period, 8% of catchments will shift to another regime class until 2011–2040, whereas until 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, 23% and 43% will shift to another class, respectively.

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