AbstractIn this paper, a discrete-time fractional-order SIR epidemic model with saturated treatment function is investigated. The local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points is analyzed and the threshold condition basic reproduction number is derived. Backward bifurcation is shown when the model possesses a stable disease-free equilibrium point and a stable endemic point coexisting together when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. It is also shown that when the treatment is partially effective, a transcritical bifurcation occurs at $\Re_{0}=1$ and reappears again when the effect of delayed treatment is getting stronger at $\Re_{0}<1$. The analysis of backward and forward bifurcations associated with the transcritical, saddle-node, period-doubling and Neimark–Sacker bifurcations are discussed. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the complex dynamical behaviors of the model. By carrying out bifurcation analysis, it is shown that the delayed treatment parameter ε should be less than two critical values ε1 and ε2 so as to avoid $\Re_{0}$ belonging to the dangerous range $\left[ \Re_{0},1\right]$. The results of the numerical simulations support the theoretical analysis.
Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with saturated treatment function
