Numerical solution for ruin probability of continuous time model based on neural network algorithm

2019 ◽  
Vol 331 ◽  
pp. 67-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Zhou ◽  
Xia Liu ◽  
Muzhou Hou ◽  
Chunhui Liu
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Hongjiang Ma ◽  
Xu Luo

The irrationality between the procurement and distribution of the logistics system increases unnecessary circulation links and greatly reduces logistics efficiency, which not only causes a waste of transportation resources, but also increases logistics costs. In order to improve the operation efficiency of the logistics system, based on the improved neural network algorithm, this paper combines the logistic regression algorithm to construct a logistics demand forecasting model based on the improved neural network algorithm. Moreover, according to the characteristics of the complexity of the data in the data mining task itself, this article optimizes the ladder network structure, and combines its supervisory decision-making part with the shallow network to make the model more suitable for logistics demand forecasting. In addition, this paper analyzes the performance of the model based on examples and uses the grey relational analysis method to give the degree of correlation between each influencing factor and logistics demand. The research results show that the model constructed in this paper is reasonable and can be analyzed from a practical perspective.


2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-303
Author(s):  
Marco Biagi ◽  
Laura Carnevali ◽  
Marco Paolieri ◽  
Fulvio Patara ◽  
Enrico Vicario

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 876
Author(s):  
Yinghao Chen ◽  
Chun Yi ◽  
Xiaoliang Xie ◽  
Muzhou Hou ◽  
Yangjin Cheng

The ruin probability is used to determine the overall operating risk of an insurance company. Modeling risks through the characteristics of the historical data of an insurance business, such as premium income, dividends and reinvestments, can usually produce an integral differential equation that is satisfied by the ruin probability. However, the distribution function of the claim inter-arrival times is more complicated, which makes it difficult to find an analytical solution of the ruin probability. Therefore, based on the principles of artificial intelligence and machine learning, we propose a novel numerical method for solving the ruin probability equation. The initial asset u is used as the input vector and the ruin probability as the only output. A trigonometric exponential function is proposed as the projection mapping in the hidden layer, then a block trigonometric exponential neural network (BTENN) model with a symmetrical structure is established. Trial solution is set to meet the initial value condition, simultaneously, connection weights are optimized by solving a linear system using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. Three numerical experiments were carried out by Python. The results show that the BTENN model can obtain the approximate solution of the ruin probability under the classical risk model and the Erlang(2) risk model at any time point. Comparing with existing methods such as Legendre neural networks (LNN) and trigonometric neural networks (TNN), the proposed BTENN model has a higher stability and lower deviation, which proves that it is feasible and superior to use a BTENN model to estimate the ruin probability.


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