On the role of structured initial conditions in the Schelling model

Author(s):  
Marcos E. Gaudiano ◽  
Jorge A. Revelli
Author(s):  
Yue Wang ◽  
Zhiguo Tian ◽  
Steffen Nolte ◽  
Alexandra Amann-Hildenbrand ◽  
Bernhard M. Krooss ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 36 (17) ◽  
pp. 11174-11182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron A. Haley ◽  
Arindam Banerjee

Author(s):  
Robyn M Stuart ◽  
Romesh G Abeysuriya ◽  
Cliff C Kerr ◽  
Dina Mistry ◽  
Daniel J Klein ◽  
...  

Objectives: To evaluate the risk of a new wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a setting with ongoing low transmission, high mobility, and an effective test-and-trace system, under different assumptions about mask uptake. Design: We used a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model to create multiple simulations of possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate over a five-week period following prolonged low levels of community transmission. Setting: We calibrated the model to the epidemiological and policy environment in New South Wales, Australia, at the end of August 2020. Participants: None Intervention: From September 1, 2020, we ran the stochastic model with the same initial conditions (i.e., those prevailing at August 31, 2020), and analyzed the outputs of the model to determine the probability of exceeding a given number of new diagnoses and active cases within five weeks, under three assumptions about future mask usage: a baseline scenario of 30% uptake, a scenario assuming no mask usage, and a scenario assuming mandatory mask usage with near-universal uptake (95%). Main outcome measure: Probability of exceeding a given number of new diagnoses and active cases within five weeks. Results: The policy environment at the end of August is sufficient to slow the rate of epidemic growth, but may not stop the epidemic from growing: we estimate a 20% chance that NSW will be diagnosing at least 50 new cases per day within five weeks from the date of this analysis. Mandatory mask usage would reduce this to 6-9%. Conclusions: Mandating the use of masks in community settings would significantly reduce the risk of epidemic resurgence.


Author(s):  
Meghana Ayyagari ◽  
Asli Demirguc-Kunt ◽  
Vojislav Maksimovic

2020 ◽  
pp. 004728752096459
Author(s):  
David Boto-García

This article conducts a microeconometric analysis of individual participation in tourism activities. We examine the existence of habit formation in the form of state dependence by which past trips increase the taste for traveling. We also study the role of regional unemployment rates, regional price indexes, and climate conditions at origin on the likelihood of tourism participation. Individual and household characteristics are also controlled for. We use monthly longitudinal microdata for Spain between 2015 and 2018 involving more than 92,000 individuals. We estimate static and dynamic random effects Probit models finding evidence of habit formation. The initial conditions and participation in the previous month raise the propensity to make a tourist trip in the following period by 28 percentage points. Habit formation is found to be strongly associated with income and education.


1983 ◽  
Vol 50 (4b) ◽  
pp. 1021-1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Holmes ◽  
F. C. Moon

We review several examples of nonlinear mechanical and electrical systems and related mathematical models that display chaotic dynamics or strange attractors. Some simple mathematical models — iterated piecewise linear mappings — are introduced to explain and illustrate the concepts of sensitive dependence on initial conditions and chaos. In particular, we describe the role of homoclinic orbits and the horseshoe map in the generation of chaos, and indicate how the existence of such features can be detected in specific nonlinear differential equations.


Optik ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 114-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Echeverri-Arteaga ◽  
Herbert Vinck-Posada ◽  
Edgar A. Gómez

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (11) ◽  
pp. 3911-3924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Hernandez-Deckers ◽  
Steven C. Sherwood

Abstract Mixing is one of the most important processes associated with atmospheric moist convection. It determines the two-way interaction between clouds and their environment, thus having a direct impact on the time evolution of convection. The fractional entrainment rate ε—the main parameter related to mixing—is often parameterized in global circulation models as a function of updraft properties, and at the same time has a strong influence on how convection evolves. Within the framework of cumulus thermal vortices in large-eddy simulations of convection, here we first investigate the validity of some of the most common parameterizations of ε, and then investigate how relevant ε is for the fate of these thermals. We find that 1/R, where R is a measure of the thermal’s radius, best parameterizes ε, but it explains only about 20% of the total variance. On the other hand, we find that both ε and favorable initial conditions—including high initial saturated fraction of the thermals—are key factors that affect the thermals’ ascent rate, mean buoyancy, and distance traveled. The lifetimes of thermals, however, seem not to be affected significantly by either ε or initial conditions, which supports the view of cumulus convection as a succession of many short-lived thermals. Finally, our results suggest that for the majority of in-cloud cumulus thermals the important role of environmental moisture in the deepening of convection results mainly from providing the initial moisture for the short-lived thermals as they initiate at different altitudes above cloud base, rather than favoring their buoyancy as they rise through it.


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