Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Monetary Policy, and Real Exchange Rates: Iceland and the 2008 Crisis

We use detailed data for Iceland to examine two often-neglected aspects of the exchange rate pass-through problem. First, we investigate whether the pass-through coefficient varies with the degree of international tradability of goods. Second, we analyze if the pass-through coefficient depends on the monetary policy framework. We consider 12 disaggregated price indexes in Iceland for 2003–2019, a period that includes Iceland’s banking and currency crisis of 2008. We find that the pass-through declined around the time Iceland reformed its flexible inflation targeting, and that the coefficients are significantly higher for tradable than for nontradables.

Incomplete Contracts in Multi-period Procurement

We analyze the problem of a buyer who purchases a long-term project from one of several suppliers. A changing state of the world influences the costs of the suppliers. We distinguish between complete contracts conditioning on all future realizations of the state of the world and incomplete contracts renegotiated whenever the state of the world changes. We provide conditions such that incomplete contracting does not pose a problem. If the changing state of the world is publicly observable and the buyer cannot switch between suppliers during the lifetime of the project, the buyer achieves the same surplus irrespective of whether contracts are complete or incomplete. An English auction followed by renegotiation whenever the state of the world changes is optimal. To identify conditions when buyers should consider drafting complete contracts, we extend the analysis by considering private information about the changing state of the world and supplier switching. In both cases, incomplete contracting poses a problem. In a survey of procurement consultants, we confirm that publicly observable states of the world via price indexes play an important role in procurement. Moreover, the consultants confirm that supplier switching is infrequent in procurement practice. Thus, incomplete contracting is less of a problem in a considerable share of procurement projects. However, complete contracts are useful and could be used more often. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis.

Endogenous Vertical Differentiation, Variety, and the Unequal Gains from Trade

How unequal are the gains from trade? This paper develops a structural framework to quantify the consequences of international trade on welfare of consumers across the income distribution, allowing for non-homothetic demand and endogenous quality choices by firms. Using random coefficients demand estimation techniques, I infer demand and supply parameters, as well as household-specific price indexes for more than 3,000 distinct industries and find the gains from trade to be moderately unequal except in wealthier and small economies. Further, not accounting for endogenous vertical differentiation would overstate the impact of trade on cost-of-living inequality by close to 50%.

The Shifting Legitimacies of Price Measurements: Official Statistics and the Quantification of Pwofitasyon in the 2009 Social Struggle in Guadeloupe

In 2009, Guadeloupe experienced a historic 44 day-long strike against the high cost of living. The union-led collective (LKP) leading the strike used calculations and figures as a weapon to prove that players holding dominant market positions captured undue profits (“pwofitasyon”). Also, official price indexes were subjected to radical political criticism by the LKP actors. Yet, by using averages, these calculations could not account for the existence of individual abusive prices. The “statactivistic” momentum resulted in a shift of the legitimate price measurement methods. Calculation was, however, also the collective’s Achilles heel. LKP members’ use of numbers established only a temporary favourable balance of power in the negotiations. It was not enough for them to compete with the state’s calculative skills on an equal basis.

Is Gold as an Alternative Investment a Good Solution During Pandemic?

The aim of the article: The crisis, both in the economic and financial markets, can lead to a sudden downturn and a loss of savings. For this reason, during a crisis, safe investments are essential to reduce risks and avoid losses. This year’s coronavirus pandemic has caused a lot of confusion in the financial and investment world as well.The pandemic led to turbulence in the financial market and made investors look for the so-called safe havens. In the literature, these havens often include alternative investments with a high demand for gold. This article aims to check the validity of using gold as an investment during a pandemic. Methodology: In the paper, in order to achieve the formulated aim, the following stages were carried out: critical analysis of the literature regarding the factors influencing investment decisions and the characteristics alternatives instruments. The last stage was based on statistical analysis using the Pearson correlation method. Gold prices were compared with quotations of two price indexes: WIG20 and S&P500. Results of the research: The conducted analysis shows that gold as an alternative investment is a good hedge in times of crisis, therefore, it is also the case during ongoing pandemic. Alternative assets fulfill a hedging function, minimizing the risk of losses. Moreover, thanks to a negative correlation with the market, they give a possibility to increase investors’ capital in times of crisis.

Optimal Price Indexes

We examine the notion of a price index as the solution to the problem of minimizing the distance between the index values and the vector of price ratios. To do so, the choice of a suitable distance function is of crucial importance. We use a generalized least-squares criterion for this purpose and show that the generalized quasilinear functions are the only solutions to the problem of minimizing the distance thus defined. There are numerous special cases that are obtained for specific choices of the requisite functions and weights. In particular, we show that, in addition to the well-established indexes of Laspeyres, Paasche, Marshall-Edgeworth, Walsh, and Törnqvist, the arithmetic-current-period index, the arithmetic-hybrid index, the harmonic-base-period index, and the harmonic-hybrid index can be obtained with suitably chosen distance functions. Furthermore, the logarithmic least-squares criterion is employed to obtain indexes that are based on geometric means.

Food prices in a pandemic: Global data show higher costs for nutritious food groups

The COVID pandemic has cut lives, livelihoods and supply chains, leading to price spikes for some foods and decline for others. We compare monthly retail food prices in up to 180 countries through February 2021, and find significant rises for more nutritious food groups with higher case counts. Prices by food group complement data on farm commodity prices and overall consumer price indexes, and can help guide policy for resilience and response to shocks.

The Causal Linkage between Energy Price and Food Price

This paper aims to reveal the causal relationship between energy prices and food prices and whether this relationship is similar in the food sub-groups forming the food price index used. As food prices more than doubled during the 2008 economic crisis, this relationship has received considerable attention from researchers. Many researches have been conducted to determine the causes and consequences of the 2008 food price crisis. Researches are mainly focused on crude oil and bio-energy in terms of “energy”. This research is not only differentiated by the data used but also by the methodology employed. The study attempts to add new findings to the empirical food price literature by utilizing relatively newly developed methods, namely Toda–Yamamoto causality, Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality, and spectral BC causality tests. The spectral BC causality test clearly reveals that there is bidirectional causality between the energy price index and food price indexes (grains, other food, and oils) at different frequencies.