Use of social network analysis to characterize the pattern of animal movements in the initial phases of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the UK

We analyse the relationship between the network of livestock movements in the UK and the dynamics of two diseases: foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has an incubation period of days, and scrapie, which incubates over years. For FMD, the time-scale of expected epidemics is similar to the time-scale of the evolution of the network. We argue that, under appropriate conditions, a static network analysis can be an appropriate tool for gaining insights into disease dynamics even when the relevant time-scales are similar, as with FMD. We show that a subclass of ‘linkage moves’ maintains the network structure, and so removing these links has a dramatic effect on the number of potentially infected farms, an effect corroborated by simulations. In contrast, because scrapie has a low probability of transmission per contact and a long incubation period, a static network representation is probably appropriate; however, the signature of the network in the pattern of transmission is likely to be faint. Scrapie-notifying farms were more likely to be associated with each other via trading at markets than were control farms; however, network community structure proves to be less representative of prevalence patterns than geographical region. These contradictory indicators emphasize that appropriate observation time frames and good discrimination among types of potentially infectious contacts are vital in order for network analysis to be a valuable epidemiological tool.

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Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

Journal of The Royal Society Interface ◽

10.1098/rsif.2006.0178 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 4 (13) ◽

pp. 235-241 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Nicholas J Savill ◽

Darren J Shaw ◽

Rob Deardon ◽

Michael J Tildesley ◽

Matthew J Keeling ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Models ◽

Data Quality ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Inaccurate Data ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

The Uk ◽

Parameter Values

Most of the mathematical models that were developed to study the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic assumed that the infectiousness of infected premises was constant over their infectious periods. However, there is some controversy over whether this assumption is appropriate. Uncertainty about which farm infected which in 2001 means that the only method to determine if there were trends in farm infectiousness is the fitting of mechanistic mathematical models to the epidemic data. The parameter values that are estimated using this technique, however, may be influenced by missing and inaccurate data. In particular to the UK 2001 epidemic, this includes unreported infectives, inaccurate farm infection dates and unknown farm latent periods. Here, we show that such data degradation prevents successful determination of trends in farm infectiousness.

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War on foot and mouth disease in the UK, 2001: Towards a cultural understanding of agriculture

Agriculture and Human Values ◽

10.1023/b:ahum.0000014022.42425.a9 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

pp. 15-25 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Brigitte Nerlich

Keyword(s):

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Cultural Understanding ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

The Uk

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John Burns Brooksby. 25 December 1914 — 17 December 1998

Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society ◽

10.1098/rsbm.2007.0002 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 53 ◽

pp. 77-92

Author(s):

R. F. Sellers

Keyword(s):

Disease Virus ◽

International Organizations ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Virus Diseases ◽

Animal Virus ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

The Uk

John Brooksby was an outstanding veterinary virologist, who worked at the Animal Virus Diseases Research Institute, Pirbright, for 40 years, for 16 of which he was Director of the Institute. He will be remembered for his contributions to the diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease, for his discovery of four new types, for the classification of subtypes and for fundamental studies of the virus. As Deputy Director and Director he was responsible for programmes on fundamental investigations of foot–and–mouth disease virus and other viruses exotic to the UK and for the application of the results both in the UK and worldwide. His advice on the distribution and the control of foot–and–mouth disease was sought by international organizations and by individual countries and was responsible for reducing the risk of spread of disease.

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Biochemical identification of viruses causing the 1981 outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in the UK

Nature ◽

10.1038/293479a0 ◽

1981 ◽

Vol 293 (5832) ◽

pp. 479-480 ◽

Cited By ~ 117

Author(s):

A. M. Q. King ◽

B. O. Underwood ◽

D. McCahon ◽

J. W. I. Newman ◽

F. Brown

Keyword(s):

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Biochemical Identification ◽

The Uk

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Descriptive and social network analysis of pig transport data recorded by quality assured pig farms in the UK

Preventive Veterinary Medicine ◽

10.1016/j.prevetmed.2012.08.011 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 108 (2-3) ◽

pp. 167-177 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

R.P. Smith ◽

A.J.C. Cook ◽

R.M. Christley

Keyword(s):

Social Network ◽

Social Network Analysis ◽

Network Analysis ◽

Pig Farms ◽

The Uk

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Parallels, differences and lessons: a comparison of the management of foot-and-mouth disease and COVID-19 using UK 2001/2020 as points of reference

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2020.0906 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 287 (1938) ◽

pp. 20200906

Author(s):

Keith Sumption ◽

Theodore J. D. Knight-Jones ◽

Melissa McLaws ◽

David J. Paton

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Animal Health ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

The Uk ◽

Disease Free ◽

Rapid Emergence ◽

Critical Resources

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely infectious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals which is highly challenging to control and can give rise to national animal health crises, especially if there is a lack of pre-existing immunity due to the emergence of new strains or following incursions into disease-free regions. The 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK was on a scale that initially overwhelmed the national veterinary services and was eventually controlled by livestock lockdown and slaughter on an unprecedented scale. In 2020, the rapid emergence of COVID-19 has led to a human pandemic unparalleled in living memory. The enormous logistics of multi-agency control efforts for COVID-19 are reminiscent of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK, as are the use of movement restrictions, not normally a feature of human disease control. The UK experience is internationally relevant as few countries have experienced national epidemic crises for both diseases. In this review, we reflect on the experiences and lessons learnt from UK and international responses to FMD and COVID-19 with respect to their management, including the challenge of preclinical viral transmission, threat awareness, early detection, different interpretations of scientific information, lockdown, biosecurity behaviour change, shortage of testing capacity and the choices for eradication versus living with infection. A major lesson is that the similarity of issues and critical resources needed to manage large-scale outbreaks demonstrates that there is benefit to a ‘One Health’ approach to preparedness, with potential for greater cooperation in planning and the consideration of shared critical resources.

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Supply Chain Partner Communication in a Managed Programme in the UK Water Industry: A Case Study with Social Network Analysis

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph16214211 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (21) ◽

pp. 4211 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Qing Li ◽

Shengqiao Wang ◽

Nicky Shaw ◽

Victor Shi

Keyword(s):

Supply Chain ◽

Social Network ◽

Social Network Analysis ◽

Network Analysis ◽

Water Industry ◽

Partner Communication ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Water Utility ◽

Supply Chain Networks ◽

The Uk

The water industry in every country aims to effectively and efficiently provide water with satisfactory quality in a sustainable and environmentally friendly manner. To this end, it is critical to achieve effective communication among the partners in water supply chain networks. In this paper, we focus on one of the UK’s largest water utility companies and its eight main contractors and analyze the factors influencing partner and network communication in a managed programme of their asset supply chain. We employ social network analysis to conduct the cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of partner communication. Factors found to influence the communication network are grouping of projects within the programme, individual’s organisational affiliation, status, tenure, elapsed time through the programme lifecycle, and co-location. Our contributions to practice include demonstrating water programme management factors that influence communication and trust and how social network analysis can better inform them about intra- and interorganisational relationships. Moreover, the methodology introduced in this study may be applied to water management in other parts of the world.

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