scholarly journals Investment specific technology shocks and emerging market business cycle dynamics

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 202-220
Author(s):  
Aydan Dogan
Author(s):  
Kamal Smimou

This chapter seeks to elucidate the relations of U.S.-listed global commodity futures, the business cycle, and stocks and bonds of emerging markets. It shows that global investors poised to benefit from investing in emerging market securities can concurrently learn from and better understand the dynamic intermarket relations when establishing such trading strategies. Investment in emerging markets can enhance the performance and sturdiness of an equity or bond portfolio strategy. Evidence lends support to the conjecture that a subtle contemporaneous and occasionally trailing effect exerted by the movement of global commodities on the business cycle exists. Global commodities also affect equity and bond market dynamics. The evidence also reveals differences in terms of economic significance and magnitude among selected emerging nations and across various commodities.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Sangyup Choi ◽  
Myungkyu Shim

This paper establishes new stylized facts about labor market dynamics in developing economies, which are distinct from those in advanced economies, and then proposes a simple model to explain them. We first show that the response of hours worked and employment to a technology shock—identified by a structural VAR model with either short-run or long-run restrictions—is substantially smaller in developing economies. We then present compelling empirical evidence that several structural factors related to the relevance of subsistence consumption across countries can jointly account for the relative volatility of employment to output and that of consumption to output. We argue that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model augmented with subsistence consumption can explain the several salient features of business cycle fluctuations in developing economies, especially their distinct labor market dynamics under technology shocks.


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