Informality, Gender Employment Gap, and COVID-19 in Mexico: Identifying Persistence and Dynamic Structural Effects

The objective is to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of the Mexican labor market (formal-informal employment) by gender. It is built consistent micro-founded time-series from 1987:Q1 to 2019:Q4 using the Mexican urban employment surveys and estimate a VAR model linking aggregate production and each market segment. Our results suggest significant adverse effects on formal employment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, with lengthy job recovery for females and males. The informal sector in both genders presents a lower forecasted response to the initial production shock but substantial observed employment losses, potentially linked to structural changes in the market. In the COVID-19 crisis, the informal sector is not a substitute for formal employment losses. The complexity of this crisis suggests crafting policies to improve the easiness of the market to enhance formal job recovery while promoting gender equality. Our main contribution is to estimate the diverse employment losses by segments and a critical structural change in the labor market dynamics resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on urban employment.

LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS UNDER TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS: THE ROLE OF SUBSISTENCE CONSUMPTION

This paper establishes new stylized facts about labor market dynamics in developing economies, which are distinct from those in advanced economies, and then proposes a simple model to explain them. We first show that the response of hours worked and employment to a technology shock—identified by a structural VAR model with either short-run or long-run restrictions—is substantially smaller in developing economies. We then present compelling empirical evidence that several structural factors related to the relevance of subsistence consumption across countries can jointly account for the relative volatility of employment to output and that of consumption to output. We argue that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model augmented with subsistence consumption can explain the several salient features of business cycle fluctuations in developing economies, especially their distinct labor market dynamics under technology shocks.

Population and Labor Dynamics in Large Informal Markets: Implications for Pension Systems with Evidence from Ecuador

This paper reviews Ecuador’s population structure and labor market dynamics with a focus on the causes of inequality, particularly among older adults receiving contributory pensions. This serves as a basis for characterizing the main restrictions that the Ecuadorian pension system must address. This analysis is valuable for three key reasons. First, the population structure of many less developed countries is converging toward that of developed countries, with older age groups increasing in proportion. Second, Ecuador is among the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean with the highest degree of informality in the labor market, which lowers the coverage of contributory pension schemes. Third, regarding gender inequality, the rate of women’s labor participation in 2010 was among the lowest in South America. The findings suggest that a younger population structure will not be the main solution to financial problems and the pension inadequacy that are facing most pension systems worldwide. Improvements in labor market institutions are required to increase the pension system’s insurance. The study concludes by discussing several proposals aimed at increasing pension coverage and reducing inequality.

U.S. AI Workforce: Labor Market Dynamics

A lack of good data on the U.S. artificial intelligence workforce limits the potential effectiveness of policies meant to increase and cultivate this cadre of talent. In this issue brief, the authors bridge that information gap with new analysis on the state of the U.S. AI workforce, along with insight into the ongoing concern over AI talent shortages. Their findings suggest some segments of the AI workforce are more likely than others to be experiencing a supply-demand gap.

FISCAL POLICY CHANGES AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS IN JAPAN’S LOST DECADE

Japan’s so-called Lost Decade of the 1990s presents a unique case study of an economy with a recent severe and prolonged recession, with large changes in the labor market and fiscal policy as the main policy available to the government. Japanese unemployment rate surged from 2.1% in 1991 to 5.4% in 2002. Meanwhile, the Japanese economy experienced a rise in government expenditures, while taxes remained fairly stable. This paper quantitatively evaluates the impact of these changes in fiscal policies on labor market variables, in particular the unemployment rate, during the 1990s. We build, calibrate, and simulate a dynamic general equilibrium model with search frictions in the labor market, a productive government sector, heterogenous government spendings, and different categories of taxes. Our model is able to reproduce the paths of the main labor market variables, and the counterfactual experiments show that the changes that took place in the different spending components affected the unemployment rate heterogeneously, although overall they kept unemployment lower than it could have been. We also find that had the government also implemented countercyclical tax policies, unemployment would not have risen as much as it did by 2002.