Probabilistic bounding analysis in the Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties

The World Health Organisation currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a bounding analysis, we show that despite additional testing costs, this approach can improve the economic viability of CYD-TDV: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing the health benefit for vaccine recipients. When testing is cheap enough, those trends outweigh additional screening costs and make test-then-vaccinate strategies net-beneficial in many settings.We derived these results using a general approach for determining price thresholds for testing and vaccination, as well as indicating optimal start and end ages of routine test-then-vaccinate programs. This approach only requires age-specific seroprevalence and a cost estimate for second infections. We demonstrate this approach across settings commonly used to evaluate CYD-TDV economics, and highlight implications of our simple model for more detailed studies. We found trends showing test-then-vaccinate strategies are generally more beneficial starting at younger ages, and that in some settings multiple years of testing can be more beneficial than only testing once, despite increased investment in testing.

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Scaling Legitimacy for Design of Lead Rubber Bearing Isolated Structures Using a Bounding Analysis

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/123113eqs300m ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 32 (1) ◽

pp. 345-366 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Gökhan Özdemir ◽

H. Polat Gülkan

Keyword(s):

Peak Ground Velocity ◽

Site Class ◽

Acceleration Time ◽

Scale Factors ◽

Rubber Bearing ◽

Lead Rubber Bearing ◽

Dynamic Analyses ◽

Isolated Structures ◽

Bounding Analysis ◽

Isolation Period

In dynamic analyses, although there is no limitation for scale factors, the customary values vary from 0.25 to 4. However, these values are based on subjective judgments rather than a quantitative evaluation. This study focused on scaling legitimacy of acceleration time series to be used in dynamic analyses performed during the design of lead rubber bearing (LRB) isolated structures, to obtain a limit for scale factors. For this purpose, several dynamic analyses are performed with the parameters, namely, isolation period, peak ground velocity, and site class. In the analyses, a recently proposed deteriorating hysteretic bilinear representation is used to model the behavior of LRBs. Limitation for scale factors is discussed through the concept of bounding analysis that intends to provide design envelopes for response quantities of isolated structures. As a result, limits for scale factors, providing that the bounding analysis fulfills its intended purpose in design of LRBs, are proposed.

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Response to Sander Greenland's Critique of Bounding Analysis

Risk Analysis ◽

10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00510.x ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 24 (5) ◽

pp. 1093-1095 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Elizabeth A. Casman ◽

Minh Ha‐Duong ◽

M. Granger Morgan

Keyword(s):

Bounding Analysis

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Is Gifted Education a Bright Idea? Assessing the Impact of Gifted and Talented Programs on Students

American Economic Journal Economic Policy ◽

10.1257/pol.6.3.30 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 30-62 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Sa A. Bui ◽

Steven G. Craig ◽

Scott A. Imberman

Keyword(s):

Gifted And Talented ◽

Gifted Education ◽

Regression Discontinuity ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Marginal Students ◽

Short Run ◽

Bounding Analysis ◽

The Impact ◽

Rule Out

We evaluate the impact of Gifted and Talented (GT) programs on students through a regression discontinuity (RD) design, and by analyzing a randomized lottery for elite magnet GT schools. We show that GT students in each analysis are exposed to higher achieving peers and, in the RD sample, a more advanced curriculum. We find that achievement for marginal students neither improves nor worsens from GT services in the short run. We also find that lottery winners only perform better in science. Using a bounding analysis we cannot rule out zero, though we do not find any significant negative effects. (JEL H51, H75, I21, I28)

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