Access to cross-border water sources in the African regions of the Nile River, Zambezi River, and Lake Turkana Basins becomes less certain as global population, human consumption, and climate change increase. Uncertainty during periods of high demand for water in agro-dependent economies creates circumstances of water stress, where social stability is low as stakeholders compete over scarce water sources. Longstanding traditions of political power, such as colonial rule and the status of regional superpowers, reinforce the unequal resource distribution. All three regions encounter water stress in the form of floods or droughts. They rely on dam projects that modify water distribution and basin agreements that reallocate political power to manage stress. The basins vary, however, in conflict intensity and effectiveness of water management strategies. The Nile River Basin exhibits low-intensity conflict and has institutionalized collaborative management strategies; the Zambezi River Basin demonstrates medium-intensity conflict with theoretically collaborative initiatives that fall short in practice; the Lake Turkana Basin exemplifies high-intensity conflict, lacking collaborative agreements. In order to address the discrepancy in outcomes, this study asks: what factors contribute to the intensity of conflict surrounding water stress? And, to what extent are water management practices effective in promoting cooperation and preventing conflict? The study concludes that the most intense conflicts occur in rural localities, where social instability is high and resource distribution is uneven. Collaborative agreements and international involvement in water management initiatives increase social stability and decrease conflict intensity by institutionalizing equitable distribution of water in a changing environment.
Assessing development and climate variability impacts on water resources in the Zambezi River basin: Initial model calibration, uncertainty issues and performance
