Prospects of Cryosphere-fed Kuhl Irrigation System Nurturing High Mountain Agriculture under Changing Climate in the Upper Indus Basin

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

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Implications of Shrinking Cryosphere Under Changing Climate on the Streamflows in the Lidder Catchment in the Upper Indus Basin, India

Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research ◽

10.1657/aaar0014-088 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 47 (4) ◽

pp. 627-644 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Shakil Ahmad Romshoo ◽

Reyaz A. Dar ◽

Irfan Rashid ◽

Asif Marazi ◽

Nahida Ali ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Changing Climate

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Quantification of Water Sustainability in Upper Indus River Basin Through the Concept of Resilience, Reliability and Vulnerability (RRV)

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-393 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Akif Rahim ◽

Nadeem Tariq ◽

Farhan Aziz ◽

Muhammad Yousaf ◽

Tahira Khurshid

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Indus Basin ◽

High Mountain ◽

Indus River ◽

Water Sustainability ◽

Sustainability Index ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Reliability Indicator ◽

Basin Water ◽

Indus River Basin

The sustainability index identifies a strategy that defend or improve the desired water management features of the basin in the future. The Upper Indus river basin is a high mountain region and consider third freshwater tower. The flow of the river consists of melting glaciers, snow, rainfall. Beyond the polar regions, the Upper Indus Basin has the largest area of glaciers in the world (22,000 km2).&#160; About 220 million people depend on Indus Basin water for agriculture and drinking purpose. Under the changing climate, sustainability is becoming a challenge for the freshwater resources. The integration of climate variables with RRV indicators is a new approach to meet this challenge. In this study the sustainability of the upper Indus is quantified. The probabilistic concept of resilience, reliability and vulnerability is applied to rainfall variability and drought patterns. The monthly Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) grided data (0.5o 0.5o) generated by climate research unit (CRU)version 4 has been used for study during the period 1901&#8211;2018. Based on the SPEI pattern, the SPEI of -0.5 was selected as the threshold (demand) to evaluate the sustainability. The results indicate the frequency of drought events in the western part of the basin is much higher than the eastern part. However, the frequency of drought events in the basin is high but the capability of the basin to resilient the droughts varies from 0.57 to 0.83. The value of reliability indicator varies from 0.8 to 0.86 and vulnerability of drought in the basin is in the range of 0.2 to 0.45. The average water sustainability index of the basin is 0.4 which lies in the category of a satisfactory state.The results of the conceptual framework of RRV can provide a more comprehensive basis for designing watershed health variables and drought management plans.&#160;Keywords: Upper Indus Basin, Water sustainability, RRV concept, SPEI, Drought.

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Boltzmann–Shannon entropy and river flow stability within Upper Indus Basin in a changing climate

International Journal of River Basin Management ◽

10.1080/15715124.2014.965718 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 87-95 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Biswajit Mukhopadhyay ◽

Asif Khan

Keyword(s):

Shannon Entropy ◽

River Flow ◽

Flow Stability ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Changing Climate

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Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-021-03529-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 144 (1-2) ◽

pp. 447-468

Author(s):

Yasir Latif ◽

Yaoming Ma ◽

Weiqiang Ma

Keyword(s):

River Basins ◽

Significance Test ◽

Indus Basin ◽

High Mountain ◽

Unique Region ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Human Needs ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

The Mean ◽

Kabul River

AbstractThe Indus Basin is referred to as a “water tower” which ensures water storage and supply to sustain environmental and human needs downstream by a balanced combination of precipitation, snow, glaciers, and surface water. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) combines the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH); this unique region is largely controlled by seasonal meltwater associated with snow and glacier melt during the summer months. The present study seeks to evaluate changes in hydrological and meteorological variable data collected through a network of 35 hydrometric and 15 climatic stations, respectively, across the UIB, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins in Pakistan. The Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) in combination with the Modified-Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used for seeking trends, while Sen’s method was applied for the slope determination of detected trends over four periods of differing lengths (T1: 1961–2013; T2: 1971–2013; T3: 1981–2013; and T4: 1991–2013). Significant decreases were observed in the mean summer and distinct months of (June–August) temperature (Tmean) at most of the stations during T1, while significant increases were dominant over the shorter T4. The mean precipitation (Pmean) was observed as significantly negative at ten stations during July; however, positive trends were observed in August and September. For streamflow, significantly upward trends were observed for mean summer, June and July flows (snowmelt dominant) during T1 and T2, within the glacier-fed basins of Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok; in contrast, streamflow (glacier melt dominant) decreased significantly in August and September over the most recent period T4. For snow-fed basins, significant increases were observed in summer mean flows at Indus at Kachura, Gilgit at Gilgit, and Alam Bridge, Astore at Doyian during (T1–T3). In particular, a stronger and more prominent signal of decreasing flows was evident in T4 within the predominantly snow-fed basins. This signal was most apparent in summer mean flows, with a large number of stations featuring significant downward trends in Jehlum and Kabul river basins. The present study concludes that the vulnerability of this region related to water stress is becoming more intense due to significantly increased temperature, reduced precipitation, and decreasing summer flows during T4.

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Improved hydrological projections and reservoir management in the Upper Indus Basin under the changing climate

Water and Environment Journal ◽

10.1111/wej.12237 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 31 (2) ◽

pp. 235-244 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Firdos Khan ◽

Jürgen Pilz ◽

Shaukat Ali

Keyword(s):

Reservoir Management ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Changing Climate

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A quantitative assessment of the genetic sources of the hydrologic flow regimes in Upper Indus Basin and its significance in a changing climate

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.059 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 509 ◽

pp. 549-572 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

Biswajit Mukhopadhyay ◽

Asif Khan

Keyword(s):

Quantitative Assessment ◽

Flow Regimes ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Changing Climate

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A reevaluation of the snowmelt and glacial melt in river flows within Upper Indus Basin and its significance in a changing climate

Journal of Hydrology ◽

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.045 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 527 ◽

pp. 119-132 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

Biswajit Mukhopadhyay ◽

Asif Khan

Keyword(s):

Indus Basin ◽

River Flows ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Changing Climate

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Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-019-02993-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 139 (1-2) ◽

pp. 741-758 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Yasir Latif ◽

Ma Yaoming ◽

Muhammad Yaseen ◽

Sher Muhammad ◽

Muhammad Atif Wazir

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Data Series ◽

High Mountain ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Fourth Series

Abstract Runoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961–2013 (first), 1971–2013 (second), 1981–2013 (third), and 1991–2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann–Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen’s method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series. Tmax revealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 °C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed that Tmin exhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 °C/decade in terms of Tmean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.

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