Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan

AbstractThe Indus Basin is referred to as a “water tower” which ensures water storage and supply to sustain environmental and human needs downstream by a balanced combination of precipitation, snow, glaciers, and surface water. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) combines the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH); this unique region is largely controlled by seasonal meltwater associated with snow and glacier melt during the summer months. The present study seeks to evaluate changes in hydrological and meteorological variable data collected through a network of 35 hydrometric and 15 climatic stations, respectively, across the UIB, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins in Pakistan. The Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) in combination with the Modified-Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used for seeking trends, while Sen’s method was applied for the slope determination of detected trends over four periods of differing lengths (T1: 1961–2013; T2: 1971–2013; T3: 1981–2013; and T4: 1991–2013). Significant decreases were observed in the mean summer and distinct months of (June–August) temperature (Tmean) at most of the stations during T1, while significant increases were dominant over the shorter T4. The mean precipitation (Pmean) was observed as significantly negative at ten stations during July; however, positive trends were observed in August and September. For streamflow, significantly upward trends were observed for mean summer, June and July flows (snowmelt dominant) during T1 and T2, within the glacier-fed basins of Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok; in contrast, streamflow (glacier melt dominant) decreased significantly in August and September over the most recent period T4. For snow-fed basins, significant increases were observed in summer mean flows at Indus at Kachura, Gilgit at Gilgit, and Alam Bridge, Astore at Doyian during (T1–T3). In particular, a stronger and more prominent signal of decreasing flows was evident in T4 within the predominantly snow-fed basins. This signal was most apparent in summer mean flows, with a large number of stations featuring significant downward trends in Jehlum and Kabul river basins. The present study concludes that the vulnerability of this region related to water stress is becoming more intense due to significantly increased temperature, reduced precipitation, and decreasing summer flows during T4.

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Addressing Climate Change Risks Influencing Cryosphere-Fed Kuhl Irrigation System in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

International Journal of Environment ◽

10.3126/ije.v9i2.32700 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 184-203

Author(s):

Arshad Ashraf ◽

Ghani Akbar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Risk ◽

Irrigation System ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

River Basins ◽

Snow Avalanche ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Lake Area ◽

Upper Indus Basin

Cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system forms a major lifeline for agriculture and livelihood development in the Himalayan region. The system is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts like glacier retreat, glacial lake outburst floods, snow avalanches and landslides especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB). It is necessary to conduct reassessment of climate change impacts and find coping strategies for sustainable agriculture development in this mountainous region. In the present study, risks of glacier depletion , lakes outburst flood, snow avalanche and landslide hazards impacting cryosphere-fed kuhl irrigation system in 10 river basins of the UIB of Pakistan were analyzed using multi-hazard indexing approach. High risk of glacier depletion was observed in the Astore and Swat river basins likely because of the combined effect of reduced snow precipitation and rising warm temperatures in these basins. The risk of expansion in aggregate lake area was high in the Indus sub-basin, moderate in the five basins (i.e., Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Shingo and Astore), while it was low in the four basins (i.e., Swat, Chitral, Gilgit and Jhelum). More than 2% areas of Hunza and Shigar basins in the Karakoram range exhibited high risk of snow avalanche and landslide (SAL) hazard, while moderate SAL hazard was found in >40% areas of Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza and Shigar river basins. An effective early warning mechanism and provision of adequate resources for preparedness are essential to cope with negative impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in this region in future.

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Quantification of Water Sustainability in Upper Indus River Basin Through the Concept of Resilience, Reliability and Vulnerability (RRV)

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-393 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Akif Rahim ◽

Nadeem Tariq ◽

Farhan Aziz ◽

Muhammad Yousaf ◽

Tahira Khurshid

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Indus Basin ◽

High Mountain ◽

Indus River ◽

Water Sustainability ◽

Sustainability Index ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Reliability Indicator ◽

Basin Water ◽

Indus River Basin

The sustainability index identifies a strategy that defend or improve the desired water management features of the basin in the future. The Upper Indus river basin is a high mountain region and consider third freshwater tower. The flow of the river consists of melting glaciers, snow, rainfall. Beyond the polar regions, the Upper Indus Basin has the largest area of glaciers in the world (22,000 km2).&#160; About 220 million people depend on Indus Basin water for agriculture and drinking purpose. Under the changing climate, sustainability is becoming a challenge for the freshwater resources. The integration of climate variables with RRV indicators is a new approach to meet this challenge. In this study the sustainability of the upper Indus is quantified. The probabilistic concept of resilience, reliability and vulnerability is applied to rainfall variability and drought patterns. The monthly Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) grided data (0.5o 0.5o) generated by climate research unit (CRU)version 4 has been used for study during the period 1901&#8211;2018. Based on the SPEI pattern, the SPEI of -0.5 was selected as the threshold (demand) to evaluate the sustainability. The results indicate the frequency of drought events in the western part of the basin is much higher than the eastern part. However, the frequency of drought events in the basin is high but the capability of the basin to resilient the droughts varies from 0.57 to 0.83. The value of reliability indicator varies from 0.8 to 0.86 and vulnerability of drought in the basin is in the range of 0.2 to 0.45. The average water sustainability index of the basin is 0.4 which lies in the category of a satisfactory state.The results of the conceptual framework of RRV can provide a more comprehensive basis for designing watershed health variables and drought management plans.&#160;Keywords: Upper Indus Basin, Water sustainability, RRV concept, SPEI, Drought.

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GLACIER MELT RESPONSE AND ANNUAL HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT THROUGHOUT TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOR MAJOR RIVER BASINS ORIGINATING IN HIGH MOUNTAIN ASIA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers Ser B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) ◽

10.2208/jscejhe.71.i_445 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 71 (4) ◽

pp. I_445-I_450

Author(s):

Megumi WATANABE ◽

Sujan KOIRALA ◽

Yukiko HIRABAYASHI ◽

Shinjiro KANAE

Keyword(s):

River Basins ◽

First Century ◽

High Mountain ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Hydrological Impact ◽

Major River ◽

Twenty First Century

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Early 21st century climatology of snow cover for the western river basins of the Indus River System

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-13145-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 13145-13190 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

S. Hasson ◽

V. Lucarini ◽

M. R. Khan ◽

M. Petitta ◽

T. Bolch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Snow Cover ◽

River System ◽

River Basins ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Lower Latitude ◽

Climate Data ◽

Indus River ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Area Of Interest

Abstract. In this paper we assess the snow cover and its dynamics for the western river basins of the Indus River System (IRS) and their sub-basins located in Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan for the period 2001–2012. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) daily snow products from Terra (MOD) and Aqua (MYD) have been first improved and then analysed on seasonal and annual basis against different topographic parameters (aspect, elevation and slope). Our applied cloud filtering technique has reduced the cloud cover from 37% (MOD) and 43% (MYD) to 7%, thus improving snow cover estimates from 7% (MOD) and 5% (MYD) to 14% for the area of interest (AOI) during the validation period (2004). Our results show a decreasing tendency for the annual average snow cover for the westerlies-influenced basins (Upper Indus Basin, Astore, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok) and an increasing tendency for the monsoon-influenced basins (Jhelum, Kabul, Swat and Gilgit). Regarding the seasonal snow cover, decrease during winter and autumn and increase during spring and summer has been found, which is consistent with the observed cooling and warming trends during the respective seasons. Sub-basins at relatively higher latitude/altitude show higher variability than basins at lower latitude/mid-altitude. Northeastern and northwestern aspects feature larger snow cover. The mean regional snow line altitude (SLA) zones range between 3000 and 5000 m a.s.l. for all basins. Our analysis provides an indication of a decrease in the regional SLA zone, thus indicating a change in the water resources of the studied basins, particularly for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Such results are consistent with the observed hydro-climate data, recently collected local perceptions and glacier mass balances for the investigated period. Moreover, our analysis suggests some potential for the seasonal stream flow forecast as a significant negative correlation has been detected for the inter-annual variability of winter snow cover and value of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the previous autumn.

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Assessment of climate pressures on glacier-melt and snowmelt-derived runoff in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram sector of the Upper Indus Basin

Role of hydrology in managing consequences of a changing global environment ◽

10.7558/bhs.2010.ic10 ◽

2010 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

N. Forsythe ◽

C.G. Kilsby ◽

H.J. Fowler ◽

D. Archer

Keyword(s):

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Hindu Kush

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Streamflow modeling and contribution of snow and glacier melt runoff in glacierized Upper Indus Basin

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment ◽

10.1007/s10661-021-09537-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 193 (11) ◽

Author(s):

Chanchal Gupta ◽

Anil V. Kulkarni ◽

Ajay K Taloor

Keyword(s):

Indus Basin ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Streamflow Modeling

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Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-019-02993-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 139 (1-2) ◽

pp. 741-758 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Yasir Latif ◽

Ma Yaoming ◽

Muhammad Yaseen ◽

Sher Muhammad ◽

Muhammad Atif Wazir

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Kendall Test ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Data Series ◽

High Mountain ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Upper Indus Basin ◽

Fourth Series

Abstract Runoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961–2013 (first), 1971–2013 (second), 1981–2013 (third), and 1991–2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann–Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen’s method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series. Tmax revealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 °C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed that Tmin exhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 °C/decade in terms of Tmean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.

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Snowmelt and Snow Sublimation in the Indus Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w13192621 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 2621

Author(s):

Simon Gascoin

Keyword(s):

Spatial Variability ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

High Mountain ◽

Snowmelt Runoff ◽

Basin Scale ◽

The Mean ◽

The One ◽

Average Annual Precipitation

The Indus basin is considered as the one with the highest dependence on snowmelt runoff in High Mountain Asia. The recent High Mountain Asia snow reanalysis enables us to go beyond previous studies by evaluating both snowmelt and snow sublimation at the basin scale. Over 2000–2016, basin-average snowmelt was 101 ± 11 Gt.a−1 (121 ± 13 mm.a−1), which represents about 25–30% of basin-average annual precipitation. Snow sublimation accounts for 11% of the mean annual snow ablation, but with a large spatial variability across the basin.

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