Short range SW monsoon rainfall forecasting over India using neural networks

Feedforward Neural Networks are used for daily precipitation forecast using several test stations all over India. The six year European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data is used with the training set consisting of the four year data from 1985-1988 and validation set consisting of the data from 1989-1990. Neural networks are used to develop a concurrent relationship between precipitation and other atmospheric variables. No attempt is made to select optimal variables for this study and the inputs are chosen to be same as the ones obtained earlier at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in developing a linear regression model. Neural networks are found to yield results which are atleast as good as linear regression and in several cases yield 10 - 20 % improvement. This is encouraging since the variable selection has so far been optimized for linear regression.

Indigenous Technical Knowledge based Rainfall Prediction: A Review

Indigenous technical knowledge (ITK) is the actual knowledge of a given population that reflects the experiences based on tradition and includes more recent experiences with modern technologies. Traditionally, farmers have used traditional knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns in order to make decisions about crop and irrigation cycles. This knowledge has been gained through many decades of experience and has been passed on from previous generations. The present study was undertaken with the objective of collection and documenting the indigenous technical knowledge of farmers regarding rainfall prediction based on abiotic and biotic factors which is being practiced generation after generation. Here in this paper an effort has been made to collect the abiotic and biotic factors predicting rainfall, as a part of ICAR sponsored NASF ad-hoc research project entitled “Developing climate resilient adaptive strategies for empowerment of farmers” which has been implemented in University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad from 2019 to 2022. Various indigenous technical knowledge are collected by analyzing the journals and newsletters, deep interaction with the farmers of study area, contacting the local resource persons and documenting oral histories without scientific validation. The study found that traditional methods of rainfall forecasting can be utilized for the purpose of short-term and long-term seasonal rainfall predictions by local communities. All available abiotic and biotic indigenous rainfall forecasting techniques may serve as alternative to modern technologies.

Monthly Average Rainfall Forecasting Based On An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in Upper Brahmani Basin, Odisha, India

Floods disrupt human activities, resulting in the loss of lives and property of a region. Excessive rainfall is one of the reasons for flooding, especially in the downstream areas of a catchment. Because of its complexity, understanding and forecasting rainfall is incredibly a challenge. This study investigates the use of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in predicting rainfall using several surface weather parameters as predictors. An ANFIS model is developed for forecasting rainfall over the Upper Brahmani Basin by using 30 years of climate data. A hybrid model with six membership functions gives the best forecast for an area. The suggested method blends neural network learning capabilities with language representations of fuzzy systems that are transparent. The application of ANFIS is to the upper Brahmani river basin is tried for the first time. The ANFIS model with various input structures and membership functions has been built, trained, and tested to evaluate the capability of the model. Statistical performance indices are used to evaluate the performance. Using the developed model, forecast is done for year 2021 – 2030.

Artificial Neural Network for Markov Chaining of Rainfall Over India

Rainfall forecasting plays a significant role in water management for agriculture in a country like India where the economy depends heavily upon agriculture. In this paper, a feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) and a multiple linear regression model has been utilized for lagged time series data of monthly rainfall. The data for 23 years from 1990 to 2012 over Indian region has been used in this study. Convincing values of root mean squared error between actual monthly rainfall and that predicted by ANN has been found. It has been found that during monsoon months, rainfall of every n+3rd month can be predicted using last three months' (n, n+1, n+2) rainfall data with an excellent correlation coefficient that is more than 0.9 between actual and predicted rainfall. The probabilities of dry seasonal month, wet seasonal month for monsoon and non-monsoon months have been found.

Examples on Simulation Model

A new methodology was developed Further real-time determination gate control operations of a river-reservoir system to minimize flooding conditions. The methodology is based upon an optimization-simulation model approach interfacing the genetic algorithm within simulation software for short-term rainfall forecasting, rainfall–runoff modeling (HEC-HMS), and a one-dimensional (1D), two-dimensional (2D), and combined 1D and 2D combined unsteady flow models (HEC-RAS). Both realtime rainfall data from next-generation radar (NEXRAD) and gaging stations, and forecasted rainfall are needed to make gate control decisions (reservoir releases) in real-time so that at timet, rainfall is known and rainfall over the future timeperiod(∆t)totimet+ ∆t can be forecasted. This new model can be used to manage reservoir release schedules (optimal gate operations) before, during, and after a rainfall event. Through real-time observations and optimal gate controls, downstream water surface elevations are controlled to avoid exceedance of threshold flood levels at target locations throughout a riverreservoir system to minimize the damage. In an example application, an actual river reach with a hypothetical upstream flood control reservoir is modeled in real-time to test the optimization-simulation portion of the overall model. Keywords: Simulation – Random numbers- Steps for simulation – Problems.

A mathematical model for QPF for flood Forecasting purposes

A mathematical, model for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) has been developed on the basis of physical and dynamical laws. The surface and upper air meteorological observations have been used as inputs in the model. The output is the rate of precipitation from which the amount of precipitation can be computed time integration. The model can be used operationally for rainfall forecasting.

Monthly rainfall forecasting by a hybrid neural network of discrete wavelet transform and deep learning

Actual rainfall forecast is critical to the management and allocation of water resources. In recent years, deep learning has been proved to be superior to traditional forecasting methods when predicting rainfall time series with high temporal and spatial variability. In this study, the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and two typical deep learning approaches, namely long-short term memory (LSTM) and dilated causal convolutional neural network (DCCNN), are integrated innovatively and the hybrid model (DWT-CLSTM-DCCNN) is used for monthly rainfall forecasting for the first time. Monthly rainfall time series of four major cities in China (Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing and Guangzhou) are used as the dataset of DWT-CLSTM-DCCNN. Firstly, two methods of sample construction are used to train DWT-CLSTM-DCCNN and their effects on the model performance are analyzed. Then, LSTM and the dilated causal convolutional network (DCCNN) are established as the benchmark models, and their forecast accuracy is compared with that of DWT-CLSTM-DCCNN. From the results of the evaluation criteria such as mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) as well as the fitting curve for forecasted rainfall, it can be concluded that the DWT-CLSTM-DCCNN developed in this study outperforms the benchmark models in model accuracy, peak and mutational rainfall capturing ability. Compared with the previous studies, DWT-CLSTM-DCCNN is proven to be better peak capture and more suitable for long-term rainfall forecasting.

Deep learning model for daily rainfall prediction: case study of Jimma, Ethiopia

Rainfall prediction is a critical task because many people rely on it, particularly in the agricultural sector. Rainfall forecasting is difficult due to the ever-changing nature of weather conditions. In this study, we carry out a rainfall predictive model for Jimma, a region located in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. We proposed a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based prediction model capable of forecasting Jimma's daily rainfall. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the proposed models using various metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), and R2, and the results were 0.01, 0.4786 0.81 and 0.9972, respectively. We also compared the proposed model to existing machine learning regressions like Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Decision Tree (DT). The RMSE of MLP was the lowest of the four existing learning models i.e., 0.03. The proposed LSTM model outperforms the existing models, with an RMSE of 0.01. The experimental results show that the proposed model has a lower RMSE and a higher R2.