scholarly journals Spatial analysis of temperature time series over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 139 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 741-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasir Latif ◽  
Ma Yaoming ◽  
Muhammad Yaseen ◽  
Sher Muhammad ◽  
Muhammad Atif Wazir
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Data Series ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Fourth Series

Abstract Runoff generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) mainly originates in the massifs of the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. Water supply in early spring depends upon the snow accumulation in the winter and the subsequent temperature. Seasonal temperature variations corroborate the contemporary dynamics of snow and glaciers. Recently, there has been increasing evidence of accelerated warming in high mountain areas, termed as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). We have identified trends, analyzed inconsistencies, and calculated changes in the maximum, minimum, mean and diurnal temperature range (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and DTR) at 20 weather stations during four-time series: 1961–2013 (first), 1971–2013 (second), 1981–2013 (third), and 1991–2013 (fourth). We employed the Mann–Kendall test to determine the existence of a trend and Sen’s method for the estimation of prevailing trends, whereas homogeneity analysis was applied before trend identification using three different tests. This study revealed that the largest and smallest magnitudes of trends appeared in the winter and summer, respectively, particularly during the fourth data series. Tmax revealed robust warming at ten stations, most remarkably at Gupis, Khunjrab, and Naltar at rates of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.43 °C/decade, respectively, during the fourth series. We observed that Tmin exhibits a mixed pattern of warming and cooling during the second and third series, but cooling becomes stronger during the fourth series, exhibiting significant trends at twelve stations. Khunjrab and Naltar showed steady warming during the fourth series (spring), at rates of 0.26 and 0.13 °C/decade in terms of Tmean. The observed decreases in DTR appeared stronger in the fourth series during the summer. These findings tend to partially support the notion of EDW but validate the dominance of cooling spatially and temporally.

scholarly journals Comparative Assessment of Spatial Variability and Trends of Flows and Sediments under the Impact of Climate Change in the Upper Indus Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 730
Author(s):  
Waqas Ul Hussan ◽  
Muhammad Khurram Shahzad ◽  
Frank Seidel ◽  
Anna Costa ◽  
Franz Nestmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
The Impact

Extensive research of the variability of flows under the impact of climate change has been conducted for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). However, limited literature is available on the spatial distribution and trends of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in the sub-basins of UIB. This study covers the comparative assessment of flows and SSC trends measured at 13 stations in the UIB along with the variability of precipitation and temperatures possibly due to climate change for the past three decades. In the course of this period, the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela, on the Indus River was depleted rapidly due to heavy sediment influx from the UIB. Sediment management of existing storage and future planned hydraulic structures (to tap 30,000 MW in the region) depends on the correct assessment of SSC, their variation patterns, and trends. In this study, the SSC trends are determined along with trends of discharges, precipitation, and temperatures using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results reveal that the annual flows and SSC are in a balanced state for the Indus River at Besham Qila, whereas the SSC are significantly reduced ranging from 18.56%–28.20% per decade in the rivers of Gilgit at Alam Bridge, Indus at Kachura, and Brandu at Daggar. The SSC significantly increase ranging from 20.08%–40.72% per decade in the winter together with a significant increase of average air temperature. During summers, the SSC are decreased significantly ranging from 18.63%–27.79% per decade along with flows in the Hindukush and Western–Karakorum regions, which is partly due to the Karakorum climate anomaly, and in rainfall-dominated basins due to rainfall reduction. In Himalayan regions, the SSC are generally increased slightly during summers. These findings will be helpful for understanding the sediment trends associated with flow, precipitation, and temperature variations, and may be used for the operational management of current reservoirs and the design of several hydroelectric power plants that are planned for construction in the UIB.

Quantification of Water Sustainability in Upper Indus River Basin Through the Concept of Resilience, Reliability and Vulnerability (RRV)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akif Rahim ◽  
Nadeem Tariq ◽  
Farhan Aziz ◽  
Muhammad Yousaf ◽  
Tahira Khurshid
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Water Sustainability ◽  
Sustainability Index ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Reliability Indicator ◽  
Basin Water ◽  
Indus River Basin

<p>The sustainability index identifies a strategy that defend or improve the desired water management features of the basin in the future. The Upper Indus river basin is a high mountain region and consider third freshwater tower. The flow of the river consists of melting glaciers, snow, rainfall. Beyond the polar regions, the Upper Indus Basin has the largest area of glaciers in the world (22,000 km<sup>2</sup>).  About 220 million people depend on Indus Basin water for agriculture and drinking purpose. Under the changing climate, sustainability is becoming a challenge for the freshwater resources. The integration of climate variables with RRV indicators is a new approach to meet this challenge. In this study the sustainability of the upper Indus is quantified. The probabilistic concept of resilience, reliability and vulnerability is applied to rainfall variability and drought patterns. The monthly Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) grided data (0.5<sup>o</sup> 0.5<sup>o</sup>) generated by climate research unit (CRU)version 4 has been used for study during the period 1901–2018. Based on the SPEI pattern, the SPEI of -0.5 was selected as the threshold (demand) to evaluate the sustainability. The results indicate the frequency of drought events in the western part of the basin is much higher than the eastern part. However, the frequency of drought events in the basin is high but the capability of the basin to resilient the droughts varies from 0.57 to 0.83. The value of reliability indicator varies from 0.8 to 0.86 and vulnerability of drought in the basin is in the range of 0.2 to 0.45. The average water sustainability index of the basin is 0.4 which lies in the category of a satisfactory<strong> </strong>state.The results of the conceptual framework of RRV can provide a more comprehensive basis for designing watershed health variables and drought management plans.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Keywords: Upper Indus Basin, Water sustainability, RRV concept, SPEI, Drought.</strong></p>

scholarly journals Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 447-468
Author(s):  
Yasir Latif ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Weiqiang Ma
Keyword(s):  
River Basins ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Unique Region ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Kabul River

AbstractThe Indus Basin is referred to as a “water tower” which ensures water storage and supply to sustain environmental and human needs downstream by a balanced combination of precipitation, snow, glaciers, and surface water. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) combines the high mountain ranges of the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH); this unique region is largely controlled by seasonal meltwater associated with snow and glacier melt during the summer months. The present study seeks to evaluate changes in hydrological and meteorological variable data collected through a network of 35 hydrometric and 15 climatic stations, respectively, across the UIB, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins in Pakistan. The Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) in combination with the Modified-Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used for seeking trends, while Sen’s method was applied for the slope determination of detected trends over four periods of differing lengths (T1: 1961–2013; T2: 1971–2013; T3: 1981–2013; and T4: 1991–2013). Significant decreases were observed in the mean summer and distinct months of (June–August) temperature (Tmean) at most of the stations during T1, while significant increases were dominant over the shorter T4. The mean precipitation (Pmean) was observed as significantly negative at ten stations during July; however, positive trends were observed in August and September. For streamflow, significantly upward trends were observed for mean summer, June and July flows (snowmelt dominant) during T1 and T2, within the glacier-fed basins of Hunza, Shigar, and Shyok; in contrast, streamflow (glacier melt dominant) decreased significantly in August and September over the most recent period T4. For snow-fed basins, significant increases were observed in summer mean flows at Indus at Kachura, Gilgit at Gilgit, and Alam Bridge, Astore at Doyian during (T1–T3). In particular, a stronger and more prominent signal of decreasing flows was evident in T4 within the predominantly snow-fed basins. This signal was most apparent in summer mean flows, with a large number of stations featuring significant downward trends in Jehlum and Kabul river basins. The present study concludes that the vulnerability of this region related to water stress is becoming more intense due to significantly increased temperature, reduced precipitation, and decreasing summer flows during T4.

scholarly journals Detection of Changes in Hydrological Time Series During Recent Decades

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-62
Author(s):  
Mária Ďurigová ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Jana Poórová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Pettitt’S Test

AbstractAn analysis of a hydrological time-series data offers the possibility of detecting changes that have arisen due to climate change or change in land use. This paper deals with the detection of changes in the hydrological time data series. The trend analysis was applied at 58 stage-discharge gauging stations that are located throughout Slovakia, with the measurement period from 1962 to 2017. The Mann-Kendall test show a declining trends in the summer and a few rising trends in the winter in discharges. In the town of Banská Bystrica at a station on the Hron River, decades of discharges, air temperatures, and precipitation totals were analyzed. The five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s were used. The hydrological time data series were also analyzed by the Pettitt’s test, which is used to detect change points. The decadal analysis at the Banská Bystrica station shows an increase in the air temperature but insignificant changes in discharges and precipitation. Pettitt’s test identified many change points in the 1990s in the air temperature.

scholarly journals Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 337-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shabeh Hasson ◽  
Jürgen Böhner ◽  
Valerio Lucarini
Keyword(s):  
Water Availability ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Domestic Use ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract. Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB) contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012) and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961–2012). For this, a Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field-) significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995–2012), we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March) and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September), which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July). Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961–2012), most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime, altering overall hydrology of the UIB in future. These findings, though constrained by sparse and short observations, largely contribute in understanding the UIB melt runoff dynamics and address the hydroclimatic explanation of the Karakoram Anomaly.

scholarly journals Forecasting mean monthly maximum and minimum air temperature of Jalandhar district of Punjab, India using seasonal ARIMA model

2022 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
BALJEET KAUR ◽  
NAVNEET KAUR ◽  
K. K. GILL ◽  
JAGJEEVAN SINGH ◽  
S. C. BHAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Minimum Air Temperature

The long-term air temperature data series from 1971-2019 was analyzed and used for forecasting mean monthly air temperature at the district level. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Mann-Kendall test were employed to test the stationarity and trend of the time series. The mean monthly maximum air temperature did not show any significant variation while an increasing trend of 0.04°C per annum was observed in mean monthly minimum air temperature, which was detrended. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving–averages were used to forecast the forthcoming 5 years (2020-2024) air temperature in the district Jalandhar of Punjab. The goodness of fit was tested against residuals, the autocorrelation function, and the histogram. The fitted model was able to capture dynamics of the time series data and produce a sensible forecast.

Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4276-4293 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Fowler ◽  
D. R. Archer
Keyword(s):  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Instrumental Records ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961–2000 and compared with neighboring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) is consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset, a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both GCM projections and the narrowing of DTR seen worldwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large-scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon. The impact of observed seasonal temperature trend on runoff is explored using derived regression relationships. Decreases of ∼20% in summer runoff in the rivers Hunza and Shyok are estimated to have resulted from the observed 1°C fall in mean summer temperature since 1961, with even greater reductions in spring months. The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe.

Spatio-temporal variability of snow accumulation on the Biafo and Hispar glaciers in the central Karakoram

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Raphael Groos ◽  
Christoph Mayer ◽  
Astrid Lambrecht ◽  
Sabrina Erlwein ◽  
Margit Schwikowski
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Stable Water Isotopes ◽  
Canadian Research

<p>The Karakoram is an extensively glacierised mountain range in the western part of High Mountain Asia and constitutes an important source of fresh water for millions of people in the Indus Basin. Over the last years, the Karakoram has attracted increasing attention due to an anomalous glacier stability, which contrasts the progressing ice mass loss across the Himalaya. Decreasing summer temperatures and increasing winter precipitation have been proposed as potential causes for the anomaly. However, the lack of snow accumulation studies and long-term meteorological measurements above 3,000 m a.s.l. hampers the corroboration of this hypothesis. To quantify the spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation in the central Karakoram, we followed the track of a Canadian research expedition from 1986. We reinvestigated eight sites between ca. 4,400 and 5,200 m a.s.l. in the connected accumulation zone of the Biafo and Hispar glaciers in 2019. Density measurements were performed in each snow pit down to the summer horizon of the previous year to quantify the elevation-dependent amount of annually accumulated snow. In addition, snow samples were collected from three selected pits for the analysis of rare earth elements and stable water isotopes to constrain the origin and seasonality of the deposited snow. Finally, we compared our recent measurements with the 30-year-old results from the Canadian research expedition as well as independent meteorological data.  In doing so we aim to evaluate the hypothesised increase in winter precipitation in this region.</p>

scholarly journals Characterization of Interannual and Seasonal Variability of Hydro-Climatic Trends in the Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Usman Liaqat ◽  
Roberto Ranzi ◽  
Giovanna Grossi ◽  
Talha Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
Basin Scale

<p>A major part of Pakistan’s economy is dependent upon agriculture which is irrigated from the water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Therefore the human impact of hydroclimatic variability in this area is of paramount importance. The Upper Indus Basin is characterized by uncertain hydro-climatic behaviour with changing patterns in different sub-basins. Many studies have worked on hydro-climatic trends at basin scale but only few studies focused on the hydroclimate, precipitation dynamics and their magnitude at sub-basin level. Based upon this scenario, high resolution seasonal and annual climatology of UIB was developed. It is based on precipitation normals 1995-2017 obtained from four different gridded satellite datasets (Aphrodite, Chirps, PERSIANN-CDR and GPCC) as well as quality- controlled high and mid elevation ground observations (1250–4500 m a.s.l.). The quality-control of the gridded dataset is computed by the anomaly method. In order to, evaluate the data quality of the gridded rainfall, four statistics i.e., BIAS, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are used in this study. Using running trends and spectral analysis with multi-gauge based anomaly, the study analyses the precipitation and runoff   seasonal and annual temporal variability at sub-basin scale. For this, Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect the presence of any trend while their slope is calculated by Theil Sen’s slope method. The nonparametric Pettitt Test was also used in this study to eventually identify the change point in hydro-climatic time series. The results indicated that bias corrected CHIRPS precipitation datasets performed better in simulating precipitation with RMSE, MAE, MAPE [%] and BIAS followed by APHRODITE. The annual and seasonal precipitation climatology exhibited higher precipitation in the lower side of the basin. The comparison between short and long duration climatologies is being investigated as well. The annual running trend analysis of precipitation exhibited a very slight change whereas a more significant increase was found in the winter season (DJF) and most of sub-basins feature a significant decreasing rate in precipitation and constant change point within the monsoon period (JJA). Similarly, trend analysis for runoff in main rivers of Upper Indus Basin at Gilgat, Indus (Besham Qila, Bunji) exhibit nonsignificant increase except Hunza and Indus at Kharmong which are showed decrease annual trends and will be further investigated for seasonal patterns. Overall, these findings would assist to better understand precipitation, snow- and ice-melt runoff dynamics, addressing the hydroclimatic behaviour of the Karakoram region.</p>

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