Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
pp. 51-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Juncal Cunado ◽  
Abdulnasser Hatemi-J ◽  
Rangan Gupta
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Bobeica ◽  
Matteo Ciccarelli ◽  
Isabel Vansteenkiste

Author(s):  
S. A. Zolina ◽  
I. A. Kopytin ◽  
O. B. Reznikova

In 2018 the United States surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the largest world oil producer. The article focuses on the mechanisms through which the American shale revolution increasingly impacts functioning of the world oil market. The authors show that this impact is translated to the world oil market mainly through the trade and price channels. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports in December 2015 allowed the United States to increase rapidly supply of crude oil to the world oil market, the country’s share in the world crude oil exports reached 4,4% in 2018 and continues to rise. The U.S. share in the world petroleum products exports, on which the American oil sector places the main stake, reached 18%. In parallel with increasing oil production the U.S. considerably shrank crude oil import that forced many oil exporters to reorient to other markets. Due to high elasticity of tight oil production to the oil price increases oil from the U.S. has started to constrain the world oil price from above. According to the majority of authoritative forecasts, oil production in the U.S. will continue to increase at least until 2025. Since 2017 the tendency to the increasing expansion of supermajors into American unconventional oil sector has become noticeable, what will contribute to further strengthening of the U.S. position in the world oil market and accelerate its restructuring.  


2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. e538-e542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Savage ◽  
Sarah Mahmoud ◽  
Yogin Patel ◽  
Hagop Kantarjian

Purpose: The cost of cancer drugs forms a rising proportion of health care budgets worldwide. A number of studies have examined international comparisons of initial cost, but there is little work on postlicensing price increases. To examine this, we compared cancer drug prices at initial sale and subsequent price inflation in the United States and United Kingdom and also reviewed relevant price control mechanisms. Methods: The 10 top-selling cancer drugs were selected, and their prices at initial launch and in 2015 were compared. Standard nondiscounted prices were obtained from the relevant annual copies of the RED BOOK and the British National Formulary. Results: At initial marketing, prices were on average 42% higher in the United States than in the United Kingdom. After licensing in the United States, all 10 drugs had price rises averaging an overall annual 8.8% (range, 1.4% to 24.1%) increase. In comparison, in the United Kingdom, six drugs had unchanged prices, two had decreased prices, and two had modest price increases. The overall annual increase in the United Kingdom was 0.24%. Conclusion: Cancer drug prices are rising substantially, both at their initial marketing price and, in the United States, at postlicensing prices. In the United Kingdom, the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme, an agreement between the government and the pharmaceutical industry, controls health care costs while allowing a return on investment and funds for research. The increasing costs of cancer drugs are approaching the limits of sustainability, and a similar government-industry agreement may allow stability for both health care provision and the pharmaceutical industry in the United States.


2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 411
Author(s):  
Noll Moriarty

Accurate forecasts for medium-term commodity prices are essential for resource companies committing to large capital expenditures. The inaccuracy of conventional forecasting methods is well known because they tend to be extrapolations of the current price trend. The inevitable reversal catches many by surprise. This paper demonstrates that medium-term (2–5 years) commodity prices are not strongly linked to economic health and commodity demand-supply, but are instead inversely controlled by supply-demand for the United States dollar (USD) and consequent valuation. P90, P50 and P10 projection bounds for future valuation of the USD are presented based on the successful probabilistic techniques of the petroleum exploration industry. This allows probabilistic projections for the oil price, which is inversely related to the USD valuation. I show that the USD is significantly undervalued at present. Probabilistic projection of the USD valuation indicates that likely appreciation will put downward pressure on commodity prices for the next 2–5 years. If the USD premise is correct, likely appreciation of the dollar during the next 2–5 years will hold stable, or even decrease, oil price to around USD $50 BBL. This is a contrary expectation to most forecasts—one which, if it eventuates, should give cause for reflection before committing to large capital expenditures. Further investigation could examine the extent to which the USD valuation can be modelled as a fractal phenomenon. If so, it would mean the USD valuation is not driven by conventional economic fundamentals; instead, it is a semi-random number series with serial correlation. If true, probabilistic forecasts of the USD can be significantly improved, hence that of medium-term commodity prices.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. S156
Author(s):  
I. Hernandez ◽  
C.B. Good ◽  
W.F. Gellad ◽  
N. Parekh ◽  
M. He ◽  
...  

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