Aristotle: stratified causal discovery for omics data

Background There has been a simultaneous increase in demand and accessibility across genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics data, known as omics data. This has encouraged widespread application of omics data in life sciences, from personalized medicine to the discovery of underlying pathophysiology of diseases. Causal analysis of omics data may provide important insight into the underlying biological mechanisms. Existing causal analysis methods yield promising results when identifying potential general causes of an observed outcome based on omics data. However, they may fail to discover the causes specific to a particular stratum of individuals and missing from others. Methods To fill this gap, we introduce the problem of stratified causal discovery and propose a method, Aristotle, for solving it. Aristotle addresses the two challenges intrinsic to omics data: high dimensionality and hidden stratification. It employs existing biological knowledge and a state-of-the-art patient stratification method to tackle the above challenges and applies a quasi-experimental design method to each stratum to find stratum-specific potential causes. Results Evaluation based on synthetic data shows better performance for Aristotle in discovering true causes under different conditions compared to existing causal discovery methods. Experiments on a real dataset on Anthracycline Cardiotoxicity indicate that Aristotle’s predictions are consistent with the existing literature. Moreover, Aristotle makes additional predictions that suggest further investigations.

Autonomous Recovery from Spacecraft Plan Failures by Regulatory Repair While Retaining Operability

Pre-designed spacecraft plans suffer from failure due to the uncertain space environment. In this case, instead of spending a long time waiting for ground control to upload a feasible plan in order to achieve the mission goals, the spacecraft could repair the failed plan while executing another part of the plan. This paper proposes a method called Isolation and Repair Plan Failures (IRPF) for a spaceship with durable, concurrent, and resource-dependent actions. To enable the spacecraft to perform some actions when a plan fails, IRPF separates all defective actions from executable actions in the pre-designed plan according to causal analysis between the failure state and the established plan. Then, to address the competition between operation and repair during the partial execution of the plan, IRPF sets up several regulatory factors associated with the search process for a solution, and then repairs the broken plan within the limits of these factors. Experiments were carried out in simulations of a satellite and a multi-rover system. The results demonstrate that, compared with replanning and other plan-repair methods, IRPF creates an execution plan more quickly and searches for a recovery plan with fewer explored state nodes in a shorter period of time.

Conducting Causal Analysis by Means of Approximating Probabilistic Truths

The current paper develops a probabilistic theory of causation using measure-theoretical concepts and suggests practical routines for conducting causal inference. The theory is applicable to both linear and high-dimensional nonlinear models. An example is provided using random forest regressions and daily data on yield spreads. The application tests how uncertainty in short- and long-term inflation expectations interacts with spreads in the daily Bitcoin price. The results are contrasted with those obtained by standard linear Granger causality tests. It is shown that the suggested measure-theoretic approaches do not only lead to better predictive models, but also to more plausible parsimonious descriptions of possible causal flows. The paper concludes that researchers interested in causal analysis should be more aspirational in terms of developing predictive capabilities, even if the interest is in inference and not in prediction per se. The theory developed in the paper provides practitioners guidance for developing causal models using new machine learning methods that have, so far, remained relatively underutilized in this context.

STRATEGI REGULASI EMOSI DAN RESILIENSI PADA IBU YANG MENDAMPINGI ANAK STUDY FROM HOME (SFH) DI MASA PANDEMI COVID-19

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan menguji secara empiris hubungan antara strategi regulasi emosi terhadap resiliensi pada Ibu yang sedang mendampingi anak Study from Home (SFH) di masa pandemi Covid-19. Hipotesis dari penelitian ini adalah adanya perbedaan tingkat resiliensi Ibu yang mendampingi anak SFH ditinjau dari strategi regulasi emosi yang dimiliki. Alat ukur yang digunakan adalah skala strategi regulasi emosi sejumlah 10 aitem yang mengacu pada teori Gross (2002) dengan dua dimensi, yaitu Suppression dan Cognitive Reappraisal. Kemudian skala yang kedua adalah skala resiliensi sebanyak 47 aitem yang mengacu pada aspek resiliensi dari teori Reivich & Shatte (2002) dengan tujuh dimensi, yaitu : emotion regulation, impulse control, optimism, causal analysis, empathy, self efficacy, dan reaching out. Pemilihan subjek dilakukan dengan cara purposive sampling, yaitu teknik penentuan sampel dengan pertimbangan tertentu yang diterapkan berdasarkan tujuan dari penelitian. Partisipan dalam penelitian ini adalah Ibu yang sedang mendampingi anak belajar dari rumah (Study from Home) di masa pandemi Covid-19, baik itu Ibu yang bekerja maupun yang Ibu yang tidak bekerja atau Ibu Rumah Tangga. Berdasarkan analisis One Way Anova, hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa adanya perbedaan tingkat resiliensi ditinjau dari strategi regulasi emosi yang dimiliki oleh ibu yang mendampingi anak SFH dengan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,002 (p < 0,05) dengan nilai F hitung 7,349.

The Role of Evaluating the Financial Performance of Banks using Financial Ratios in Determining Economic Growth A Comparative Study between Iraq and Jordan for the Period (2005-2020)

The research aims to analyze the balance sheet disclosure (the assets side and the liabilities side) and their impact on determining the credit policy of Sumer Commercial Bank with a reference to the Jordan Investment Bank, and extracting growth rates for the variables, as well as using the VAR methodology to clarify the functional relationship between the variables of the two sides of assets and liabilities, and the research concluded that there are A significant relationship between the variables based on Kranger's causal analysis, the variables on the assets side had an upward trend resulting from large investments, which formed the vast majority of total assets, in order for the bank to achieve successes in managing bank liquidity, while the bank failed to manage the liabilities side.

Probabilities

This chapter offers a BST theory of propensities (i.e., of objective single-case probabilities), which builds on the account of indeterministic causation developed in Chapter 6. Propensities are shown to deliver classical (Kolmogorovian) probability spaces. The chapter draws a distinction between propensities and probability measures. The former are assigned to sets of BST transitions, in particular to sets of causae causantes of transitions, and are interpreted as degrees of possibility of these transitions. The latter are defined in terms of propensities and are measures of Komogorovian probability spaces. Features of propensities are derived from a logico-causal analysis. Finally, the chapter discusses how the theory developed here handles well-known objections to propensities due to Humphreys and to Salmon, especially Humphreys’s paradox.

THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON THE PROTEST ACTIVITIES OF YOUTH PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS IN RUSSIA

The article examines the impact of the globalization process on modern Russia as a state and society. On the basis of the works of the classics of sociology, the concept of the globalization process is defined. The origins of globalization, its historical prerequisites, the development of globalization in the world are studied in detail. Using causal analysis, the underlying causes of the globalization process in today's environment are identified. The positive and negative aspects of globalization have been explored. The features of the globalization process in the current conditions have been identified. Based on the analysis, the US leadership role in the spread of globalization is concluded. The role of Russia as an object of globalization, the attitude of Western, primarily American adherents of globalization, is shown. The impact of the globalization process on modern Russian youth and economic, social, moral and other aspects of its existence is analyzed. The impact of globalization on the participation of young people in protest actions of youth public organizations is shown. The conclusion is made about the negative impact of globalization processes on modern Russian youth.