An analysis of the feasibility of long-range streamflow forecasting for Colombia using El Niño–Southern Oscillation indicators

2001 ◽  
Vol 246 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 181-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Gutiérrez ◽  
J.A. Dracup
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting

scholarly journals El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Recent Evolution and Possibilities for Long Range Flow Forecasting in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-185 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The World

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the dominant pattern of short-term climate variation, and is therefore of great importance in climate studies. Some recent studies showed the teleconnection between stream flow and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This paper presents an overview of the relationship between ENSO and stream flow in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna and the potential for wet season flow forecasting. This seasonal forecast of stream flow is very invaluable to the management of land and water resources, particularly in Bangladesh to improve the predictability of severe flooding. Over the years, large investments have been made to build physical infrastructure for flood protection, but it has been proved that it is not feasible, both economically and technically, to adopt solely structural mitigation approach. The choice of non-structural measures in this country focused mainly on flood forecasting because many of the nonstructural measures including flood plain zoning, compulsory acquisition of flood prone land, relocation etc have also been proved inappropriate for Bangladesh. The aim of this research is to find out an effective and long-lead flow forecasting method with lead time greater than hydrological time scale, using El Nino-Southern Oscillation index. Some studies indicate that SST can be predicted one to two years in advance using several ocean/ coupled ocean atmosphere models, therefore the ability to predict flow patterns in rivers will be highly enhanced if a strong relationship between river discharge and ENSO exists, and is quantified. With this view, to assess the strength of teleconnection between river flow and ENSO, at first correlation analyses between ENSO indices of any year and wet season flow of that year have been done. Here sea surface temperature (SST) has been used as ENSO index. This correlation analysis demonstrates a noteworthy relationship between natural variability of average flow of the months July-August-September (JAS) of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River with SST of the corresponding months. Then discriminant prediction approach, also known as “Categoric Prediction” has been used here for the assessment of long range flood forecasting possibilities. This approach will be able to forecast the category of flow (high, average or low) using the category of predictor (predicted SST) at a sufficient lead time. In order to judge the forecast skill, a synoptic parameter “Forecasting Index” has also been used. This discriminant approach will improve the forecasting lead-time while the hydrologic forecast through rainfall-runoff modeling could provide a lead time on the order of the basin response time, which is several days or so. As the Ganges–Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most populous river basins of the world and is occupied by some developing countries of the world like Bangladesh, any reduction in the uncertainty about the flood in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna River would contribute a lot to the improvement in flow forecasting as well as to the economic development of the country.

Seasonal streamflow forecasting in eastern Australia and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

1998 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 3035-3044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas C. Piechota ◽  
Francis H. S. Chiew ◽  
John A. Dracup ◽  
Thomas A. McMahon
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y PESQUERÍAS EN EL ECUADOR.

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Chavarría Viteri ◽  
Dennis Tomalá Solano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Current Action ◽  
Palabras Clave

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian  fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO  (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

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