Equilibrium yield-curve analysis through an analytic age-structured production model: A sensitivity study for the Chilean jack mackerel fishery

2002 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis A. Cubillos ◽  
Aldo Hernández ◽  
Aquiles Sepúlveda ◽  
Dagoberto F. Arcos
2020 ◽  
pp. 185-204
Author(s):  
Michael J. Fogarty ◽  
Jeremy S. Collie

This chapter explores dynamical behaviors that go beyond globally stable outcomes to include alternate stable states, and non-equilibrium behaviors. The possibility of multiple equilibria emerges quite readily in models with non-linear harvesting functions. In practice, most fisheries management protocols at least implicitly assume that harvested populations have well-behaved stable equilibrium properties. If this is not the case, then sudden changes (including collapse) can occur and be totally unanticipated. This chapter describes the spectrum of single-species harvesting models from biomass dynamics models that do not include age or size structure, to delay–difference models with a simple demographic structure, to full age-structured models. Dynamic-pool models combine yield per recruit and egg-per-recruit with a stock-recruitment model to obtain an equilibrium yield curve. These single-species models are used to estimate biological reference points with which to assess stock status.


1979 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert F. Ayres ◽  
John Y. Barry

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 1277-1287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Momoko Ichinokawa ◽  
Hiroshi Okamura ◽  
Hiroyuki Kurota

We present the first quantitative review of the stock status relative to the stock biomass (B) and the exploitation rate (U) that achieved the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) (BMSY and UMSY, respectively) for 37 Japanese stocks contributing 61% of the total marine capture production in Japan. BMSY and UMSY were estimated by assuming three types of stock-recruitment (S-R) relationships and an age-structured population model or by applying a surplus production model. The estimated stock status shows that approximately half of the stocks were overfishing (U/UMSY > 1), and approximately half of the stocks were overfished (B/BMSY < 0.5) during 2011–2013. Over the past 15 years, U decreased and B slightly increased on average. The rate of decrease in the U of the stocks managed by the total allowable catch (TAC) was significantly greater than that of the other stocks, providing evidence of the effectiveness of TAC management in Japan. The above statuses and trends were insensitive to the assumption of the S-R relationship. The characteristics of Japanese stocks composed mainly of resources with relatively high natural mortality, i.e. productivity, suggest that Japanese fisheries have great potential of exhibiting a quick recovery and increasing their yield by adjusting the fishing intensity to an appropriate level.


<em>Abstract.</em>—Atlantic blue marlin are primarily harvested as bycatch in fisheries targeting tunas and swordfish. These target species are managed for maximum sustainable yield (MSY) based largely on guidance from surplus production models that lack age structure. Simulation models were constructed around the life history characteristics of Atlantic blue marlin and yellowfin tuna, one of the target species. Each simulated population was exposed to fishing mortality and the resulting time streams of catches and abundances were used as surplus production model inputs using the computer program ASPIC. The slopes of the stock-recruitment curves of the simulated populations were adjusted until the ASPIC estimates of the intrinsic growth rates for the simulations were equivalent to the estimates derived for these populations in the last ICCAT stock assessments. The equilibrium curves of production on fishing mortality for the age-structured populations were then compared to the logistic production model fitted by ASPIC. For blue marlin, the underlying production curve shifted to the left, and F<SUB> MSY </SUB>was lower than the value estimated by ASPIC. For yellowfin tuna, the underlying production curve shifted to the right and F<SUB> MSY </SUB>occurred at a higher fishing mortality rate than that estimated by ASPIC. These results suggest that the Atlantic blue marlin stock is more vulnerable to fishing mortality than indicated by the production model fitted in the last assessment. Also, the fishing mortality rate that produces MSY for yellowfin is near the extinction level for blue marlin. This characteristic is likely shared by other highly productive stocks that support the fisheries in which blue marlin are killed as bycatch. These results indicate that fishing target species at MSY may result in continued serious depletions of Atlantic blue marlin unless the catchability can be reduced relative to the catchability of the target species.


<em>Abstract</em>.—The current Lake St. Clair Great Lakes Muskellunge <em>Esox masquinongy </em>fishery is entirely self-sustaining and dominated by a catch-and-release ethic. Catch rates of Lake St. Clair Muskellunge are among the highest documented for this species, and angler catches of trophy Muskellunge are considered relatively commonplace. The proximity of Lake St. Clair to many potential new Muskellunge anglers, interest among some anglers in restoring a long-prohibited winter spear fishery, and warming temperatures associated with climate change pose potential threats to the quality of this fishery. We developed an age-structured equilibrium yield model to project the likely effects of altered size and harvest limits, increased angling effort, establishment of a winter spearing season, or warming temperatures on open-water angling catch rates of three size-classes of Lake St. Clair Muskellunge (all fish ≥ age 1, legal-sized fish > 107 cm, and trophy-sized fish > 127 cm). Our modeling indicated that changes in regulations in the Lake St. Clair Muskellunge fishery were unlikely to result in substantial changes to catch rates of Muskellunge of any size-class. Similarly, the current high rate of voluntary release would largely buffer catch rates of all size-classes of Lake St. Clair Muskellunge from increases in fishing effort. Our simulation of a winter spearing fishery indicated that only high levels of spearing effort and harvest would reduce open-water catch rates to a degree that would likely be objectionable to anglers. In contrast, the predicted catch rates of legal-and trophy-sized fish were highly sensitive to modeled reductions in growth. As such, the major threat to this trophy Muskellunge fishery appears largely outside the traditional toolbox of fisheries managers, hastening the need for development of resilient management and monitoring plans for this valuable fishery.


1999 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1078-1087 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renate Meyer ◽  
Russell B Millar

This paper illustrates the ease with which Bayesian nonlinear state-space models can now be used for practical fisheries stock assessment. Sampling from the joint posterior density is accomplished using Gibbs sampling via BUGS, a freely available software package. By taking advantage of the model representation as a directed acyclic graph, BUGS automates the hitherto tedious calculation of the full conditional posterior distributions. Moreover, the output from BUGS can be read directly into the software CODA for convergence diagnostics and statistical summary. We illustrate the BUGS implementation of a nonlinear nonnormal state-space model using a Schaefer surplus production model as a basic example. This approach extends to other assessment methodologies, including delay difference and age-structured models.


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