Inner magnetosphere variations after Solar Proton Events. Observations on Mir space station in 1989–1994 time period

Abstract. Solar eruptions in early 2005 led to a substantial barrage of charged particles on the Earth's atmosphere during the 16–21 January period. Proton fluxes were greatly increased during these several days and led to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOx (N, NO, NO2), which then caused the destruction of ozone. We focus on the Northern polar region, where satellite measurements and simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3) showed large enhancements in mesospheric HOx and NOx constituents, and associated ozone reductions, due to these solar proton events (SPEs). The WACCM3 simulations show enhanced short-lived OH throughout the mesosphere in the 60–82.5° N latitude band due to the SPEs for most days in the 16–21 January 2005 period, in reasonable agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. Mesospheric HO2 is also predicted to be increased by the SPEs, however, the modeled HO2 results are somewhat larger than the MLS measurements. These HOx enhancements led to huge predicted and MLS-measured ozone decreases of greater than 40% throughout most of the northern polar mesosphere during the SPE period. Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) show increases throughout the stratosphere with highest enhancements of about 60 pptv in the lowermost mesosphere over the 16–18 January 2005 period due to the solar protons. WACCM3 predictions indicate H2O2 enhancements over the same time period of more than twice that amount. Measurements of nitric acid (HNO3) by both MLS and MIPAS show an increase of about 1 ppbv above background levels in the upper stratosphere during 16–29 January 2005. WACCM3 simulations show only minuscule HNO3 changes in the upper stratosphere during this time period. Polar mesospheric enhancements of NOx are computed to be greater than 50 ppbv during the SPE period due to the small loss rates during winter. Computed NOx increases, which were statistically significant at the 95% level, lasted about a month past the SPEs. The SCISAT-1 Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer NOx measurements and MIPAS NO2 measurements for the polar Northern Hemisphere are in reasonable agreement with these predictions. An extremely large ground level enhancement (GLE) occurred during the SPE period on 20 January 2005. We find that protons of energies 300 to 20 000 MeV, not normally included in our computations, led to enhanced lower stratospheric odd nitrogen concentrations of less than 0.1% as a result of this GLE.

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Energetic Solar Particle Access to the Near-Equatorial Inner Magnetosphere

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1642 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Rachael Filwett ◽

Allison Jaynes ◽

Daniel Baker ◽

Shrikanth Kanekal ◽

Bern Blake ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Weather Prediction ◽

Rapid Evolution ◽

Solar Proton ◽

Cutoff Rigidity ◽

Inner Magnetosphere ◽

Van Allen Probes ◽

Proton Data ◽

Solar Proton Events ◽

Rigidity Dependence ◽

East West

<p>Solar proton events are comprised of energetic protons of solar and interplanetary origin. Such energetic particles are able to access the magnetosphere at various locations according to their cutoff rigidity. The specific properties of solar proton access are of great interest for space weather prediction purposes. Using Van Allen Probes/Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope (REPT) 20-200 MeV proton data we examine four of the strongest solar proton events over the lifetime of the mission. We present evidence of the direct magnetospheric access of these energetic solar protons and find strong flux increases at L<4. Results indicate that small and sudden flux changes measured by ACE spacecraft sensors upstream of Earth are also seen in the near-equatorial inner magnetosphere. Using the East-West asymmetry of solar protons as a proxy for cutoffs we examine the highly dynamic cutoff rigidity. We find there is evidence for: (1) cutoff rigidity dependence on MLT; (2) suppressed cutoffs with rapid Dst changes; and (3) rapid evolution of cutoffs even during quiet magnetospheric conditions.</p>

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Statistical analysis of solar proton events

Annales Geophysicae ◽

10.5194/angeo-22-2255-2004 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 22 (6) ◽

pp. 2255-2271 ◽

Cited By ~ 38

Author(s):

V. Kurt ◽

A. Belov ◽

H. Mavromichalaki ◽

M. Gerontidou

Keyword(s):

Statistical Analysis ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Ground Level ◽

Solar Proton ◽

Longitudinal Distribution ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Data Set ◽

Time Period ◽

Solar Proton Events

Abstract. A new catalogue of 253 solar proton events (SPEs) with energy >10MeV and peak intensity >10 protons/cm2.s.sr (pfu) at the Earth's orbit for three complete 11-year solar cycles (1970-2002) is given. A statistical analysis of this data set of SPEs and their associated flares that occurred during this time period is presented. It is outlined that 231 of these proton events are flare related and only 22 of them are not associated with Ha flares. It is also noteworthy that 42 of these events are registered as Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) in neutron monitors. The longitudinal distribution of the associated flares shows that a great number of these events are connected with west flares. This analysis enables one to understand the long-term dependence of the SPEs and the related flare characteristics on the solar cycle which are useful for space weather prediction.

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Peculiarities of the solar proton events of 19 October 1989 and 23 March 1991 according to the measurements onboard the Mir space station

Advances in Space Research ◽

10.1016/0273-1177(94)90520-7 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 14 (10) ◽

pp. 645-650 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

V.M. Petrov ◽

V.S. Mahkmtov ◽

N.A. Panova ◽

V.A. Shurshakov ◽

Ts.P. Dachev ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Space Station ◽

Solar Proton ◽

Solar Proton Events

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Novel Method for Predicting Solar Proton Events Based on Grey Relational Analysis and Joint Probability Density

Key Engineering Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.613.374 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 613 ◽

pp. 374-378

Author(s):

Qiang Li ◽

Zhong Yu Wang ◽

Hu Yan ◽

Qian Wang

Keyword(s):

Probability Density ◽

Grey Relational Analysis ◽

Space Station ◽

Joint Probability ◽

Solar Proton ◽

Proton Event ◽

Relational Analysis ◽

Solar Proton Events ◽

Grey Relational ◽

Joint Probability Density

Solar proton event is one of the important sources of interference, which may cause perturbations of the Sun-earth system in a great contingency. Big levels of proton events can also affect the reliability of carrier laboratory equipment in space station. The safe operation of on-orbit space station may be threatened at sometimes. This paper presents a new method to predict the probability of occurrence and estimate the level of proton events based on grey relational analysis and joint probability density forecast. Firstly, the grey relational analysis is applied to extract the most relevant data sequences from numerous related characteristic quantities which characterize events occurrence. Secondly, the characteristic data sequences are made to be dimensionless and the dimensions are compressed. After the sequences of characteristic factors are recombined, the new independent integrated variables can be generated. Finally, the GM(1,N) prediction model for the present and absent event established. At the same time, the joint probability density method is used to analyse the optimized characteristic factor sequence, the joint probability density model of different levels of proton events corresponding characteristic factors can also be obtained. The combination of the model and setting event level threshold value are obtained, and the joint probability density discriminator is constituted. The level of impending proton event is predicted by utilizing the discriminator. The results show that the event predictive precision rate is prior to 90% by selecting the data of solar proton events occuring in 2012 for model prediction, and the prediction accuracy of events level is superior to 85%.

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Northern Hemisphere atmospheric influence of the solar proton events and ground level enhancement in January 2005

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-11-6153-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 11 (13) ◽

pp. 6153-6166 ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

C. H. Jackman ◽

D. R. Marsh ◽

F. M. Vitt ◽

R. G. Roble ◽

C. E. Randall ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Atmospheric Chemistry ◽

Climate Model ◽

Michelson Interferometer ◽

Ground Level ◽

Solar Proton ◽

Ground Level Enhancement ◽

Time Period ◽

Nitrogen Concentrations ◽

Solar Proton Events

Abstract. Solar eruptions in early 2005 led to a substantial barrage of charged particles on the Earth's atmosphere during the 16–21 January period. Proton fluxes were greatly increased during these several days and led to the production of HOx (H, OH, HO2) and NOx (N, NO, NO2), which then caused the destruction of ozone. We focus on the Northern polar region, where satellite measurements and simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3) showed large enhancements in mesospheric HOx and NOx constituents, and associated ozone reductions, due to these solar proton events (SPEs). The WACCM3 simulations show enhanced short-lived OH and HO2 concentrations throughout the mesosphere in the 60–82.5° N latitude band due to the SPEs for most days in the 16–21 January 2005 period, somewhat higher in abundance than those observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). These HOx enhancements led to huge predicted and MLS-measured ozone decreases of greater than 40 % throughout most of the northern polar mesosphere during the SPE period. Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) show increases throughout the stratosphere with highest enhancements of about 60 pptv in the lowermost mesosphere over the 16–18 January 2005 period due to the solar protons. WACCM3 predictions indicate H2O2 enhancements over the same time period of about three times that amount. Measurements of nitric acid (HNO3) by both MLS and MIPAS show an increase of about 1 ppbv above background levels in the upper stratosphere during 16–29 January 2005. WACCM3 simulations show only minuscule HNO3 increases (<0.05 ppbv) in the upper stratosphere during this time period. Polar mesospheric enhancements of NOx are computed to be greater than 50 ppbv during the SPE period due to the small loss rates during winter. Computed NOx increases, which were statistically significant at the 95 % level, lasted about a month past the SPEs. The SCISAT-1 Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer NOx measurements and MIPAS NO2 measurements for the polar Northern Hemisphere are in reasonable agreement with these predictions. An extremely large ground level enhancement (GLE) occurred during the SPE period on 20 January 2005. We find that protons of energies 300 to 20 000 MeV, associated with this GLE, led to very small enhanced lower stratospheric odd nitrogen concentrations of less than 0.1 % and ozone decreases of less than 0.01 %.

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