Ideological Proximity, Valence, and Voter Choice

2017 ◽  
pp. 84-105
Author(s):  
Walter J. Stone
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Norman Schofield

A key concept of social choice is the idea of the Condorcet point or core. For example, consider a voting game with four participants so any three will win. If voters have Euclidean preferences, then the point at the center will be unbeaten. Earlier spatial models of social choice focused on deterministic voter choice. However, it is clear that voter choice is intrinsically stochastic. This chapter employs a stochastic model based on multinomial logit to examine whether parties in electoral competition tend to converge toward the electoral center or respond to activist pressure to adopt more polarized policies. The chapter discusses experimental results of the idea of the core explores empirical analyses of elections in Israel and the United States.


2021 ◽  
pp. 194016122110209
Author(s):  
Jiawei Liu ◽  
Rosemary J. Avery ◽  
Erika F. Fowler ◽  
Laura Baum ◽  
Sarah E. Gollust ◽  
...  

Previous research has documented that political information in the mass media can shape attitudes and behaviors beyond voter choice and election turnout. The current study extends this body of work to examine associations between televised political campaign advertising (one of the most common forms of political communication people encounter) and worry about crime and violence in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. We merge two large datasets—Kantar/CMAG data on televised campaign advertisement airings ( n = 3,767,477) and Simmons National Consumer Survey (NCS) data on television viewing patterns and public attitudes ( n = 26,703 respondents in the United States)—to test associations between estimated exposure to campaign ads about crime and crime worry, controlling for demographics, local crime rates, and political factors. Results from multivariate models show that estimated cumulative exposure to campaign ads about crime is associated with higher levels of crime worry. Exposure to campaign ads about crime increased crime worry among Republicans, but not Democrats.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-164
Author(s):  
Lada Kuletskaya ◽  

As for today, political elections are the key form of people’s participation in the formation of the state in all democratic countries, which is why theoretical works in the field of spatial modeling of voter choice appeared relatively long ago and played a major role in the development of both further theoretical and empirical research in this area. In this survey we firstly give a brief overview of the history of the formation of spatial modeling in relation to election results and political preferences of individuals from the point of view of research methodology, based on the classical theoretical ‘proximity model’ and ‘directional model’, where rational individuals determine their political positions and compare them with the positions of candidates. Secondly, we explain the appearance of the studies of the mutual influence of voters living in neighboring territories on each other as one of the factors that determine the voters’ political positions and, accordingly, the final choice of a candidate. We also point out the authors’ different explanations of the reasons for the appearance of such mutual influence of voters and other factors affecting voters living in neighboring territories (also called as ‘contextual effects’) and emphasize the importance of taking them into account in the studies of electoral preferences. A separate chapter in this paper presents the systematization and description of the main empirical approaches to spatial modeling of electoral choice: at the beginning, we present the basic econometric spatial models (used by the authors regardless of the subject of the study), and then we describe the empirical work in the field of voter choice, depending on the hypotheses, focusing on the research methodology and the data used. In conclusion, we define the main directions for the research development and the vector of further practical work in this area. This paper will help researchers understand existing fundamental works, evaluate current approaches to the modeling of electoral choice, and improve theoretical or empirical spatial analysis


Author(s):  
Jonathan Bendor ◽  
Daniel Diermeier ◽  
David A. Siegel ◽  
Michael M. Ting

This chapter introduces a model of two-party elections that integrates the focused models of party competition, turnout, and voter choice. To address the complexity of this synthetic model, computation is used as the main way to generate results (predictions). The model yields a “general equilibrium” of the election game. It also allows for greater heterogeneity within each coalition while taking into account the link between payoffs and aspirations. The chapter first describes the proposed computational model for two parties before discussing some results of the basic integrated model. It also considers several new questions that the model can address, such as: who votes and who votes correctly. Finally, it examines the dynamics that lead to equilibrium behavior.


Author(s):  
Russell J. Dalton ◽  
David M. Farrell ◽  
Ian McAllister
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Matthew L. Bergbower
Keyword(s):  

The Gun Gap ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 50-79
Author(s):  
Mark R. Joslyn

Chapter 2 presents a framework to examine the vote choices of gun owners. Using data from the General Social Survey and American National Election Studies, two important empirical regularities emerge. First, compared to those who do not own a guns, people who do own guns reliably vote Republican. In addition, the divide between the vote choices of gun owners and nonowners is growing. Since 2004, the “gun gap” has nearly doubled. Second, the more guns an individual owns, the more likely he or she is to vote Republican. In this respect, purchasing a gun or guns is an act of some political consequence.


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